Search found 187 matches

by systemskeptic
Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:42 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Tulving is Bankrupt
Replies: 25
Views: 17409

Re: Tulving is Bankrupt

Why would anyone order from a website that looks like it was designed in 1995?
by systemskeptic
Mon Feb 10, 2014 6:34 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Purchasing Physical Gold
Replies: 28
Views: 15881

Re: Purchasing Physical Gold

If the difference is 1% ($13) I say buy whichever coin you think looks better...

Personally, Maple Leafs are probably my least favorite.
by systemskeptic
Mon Jan 20, 2014 7:07 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cullen Roche interview
Replies: 291
Views: 95789

Re: Cullen Roche interview

Gold, simply put, is not currently used as money.  It is a decent store of value once you realize what it is (most Austrians can't even figure it out in a fiat economy, claiming that it's the gauge of inflation when it has risen, but not after it has fallen). Not to derail the thread as the moneyne...
by systemskeptic
Mon Jan 20, 2014 6:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cullen Roche interview
Replies: 291
Views: 95789

Re: Cullen Roche interview

Regarding gold, I don't agree much with Cullen on gold, I know you don't agree with him on Gold, or you probably wouldn't be posting on a forum which advocates a 25% allocation.  How do you reconcile that with your belief in MR, and likewise with Cullen?  Seems strange to argue that someone is so s...
by systemskeptic
Mon Jan 20, 2014 3:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cullen Roche interview
Replies: 291
Views: 95789

Re: Cullen Roche interview

Belief in MR vs Austrianism would have some serious affects on your investment allocation depending on How do you reconcile a belief in MR and an allocation of 25% Gold?  If you truly believe Cullen, I can't see any reason to hold Gold at such a percentage.  He himself says this: http://pragcap.com...
by systemskeptic
Mon Jan 20, 2014 2:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cullen Roche interview
Replies: 291
Views: 95789

Re: Cullen Roche interview

(Seriously I challenge anyone to go over to monetaryrealism.com and try to debate him). And MR is simply describing the system as it is, so I don't see how it can possibly have "no practical application."  There is nothing tangible to gain from debating theory with no practical application IMHO. Wh...
by systemskeptic
Mon Jan 20, 2014 1:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cullen Roche interview
Replies: 291
Views: 95789

Re: Cullen Roche interview

Cullen & Schiff on the same show: http://pragcap.com/me-peter-schiff-jim-rickards-and-james-galbraith-on-the-same-show Have those quoting Cullen watched him in live interviews such as this one?  Comes across as someone who doesn't understand reality, only theory that has no practical application......
by systemskeptic
Fri Jan 17, 2014 3:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cullen Roche interview
Replies: 291
Views: 95789

Re: Cullen Roche interview

You guys are making this harder than it is.  If QE prevented/reduced the deflation post 2008 then it was an inflationary stimulus... period.  The mechanics and explanation is all hot air anyways because none of it is provable (soft science) If it helps you to look at it, if CPI was 2% prior to 2008,...
by systemskeptic
Fri Jan 17, 2014 11:31 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cullen Roche interview
Replies: 291
Views: 95789

Re: Cullen Roche interview

Moda / Gumby,

Is the absence of QE deflationary? 

That is, if the Fed had not embarked on QE would we have been in more of a risk for deflation, or be in a more deflationary state than today?
by systemskeptic
Fri Jan 10, 2014 6:52 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Wade Pfau's stock market drops > 50% in inflation-adjusted terms - 20 countries
Replies: 10
Views: 8695

Re: Wade Pfau's stock market drops > 50% in inflation-adjusted terms - 20 countries

k9 wrote: (which seems to have never happened with stock markets according to OP's data)
It has happened several times in the last century, OP excluded these events from his data.  Equity losses of 100% can, and have, happened.
by systemskeptic
Fri Dec 27, 2013 2:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 26456

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

60/40 BH-style portfolios have done well because of their heavy stock exposure during a time when the stock market has been booming. By the same token, once the market crashes, such a portfolio is going to fall hard, with the bonds unable to keep the returns positive, and the loss is going to be a ...
by systemskeptic
Fri Dec 27, 2013 1:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 26456

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

Substantiate these claims. I've heard the same predictions since 2009 and have outsized returns in a 60/40 allocation over the last 4 years. Realize that your personal opinion of future market performance is detrimental to your investment success, especially if it is pessimistic in nature. Protect ...
by systemskeptic
Fri Dec 27, 2013 12:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 26456

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

I think it's really challenging for a lot of people to accept that we're simply in a low-return world right now. Stocks are over-valued. Bond yields are awfully low the world over. Gold got destroyed last year. Cash is yielding nothing. Right now is a hard time for anyone investing in passive funds...
by systemskeptic
Fri Dec 27, 2013 12:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 26456

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

Systemskeptic, What are you investing in to get higher real return over the next 10 years?  Could you give us an idea of percentages you have in different types of investments? I think the PP does exactly what it says it does, the problem is all single country portfolios have 10 year periods where ...
by systemskeptic
Fri Dec 27, 2013 11:30 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 26456

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

25% Stocks (US) SP500 Shiller PE = 26.3.  Historically this has indicated the 10 year returns are likely to be below average. 25% Cash 10 year return for cash historically gives a negative real return regardless of rates (this reduces volatility at the expense of real return) 25% LTT Right now rates...
by systemskeptic
Wed Oct 30, 2013 4:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

That's my understanding, yes. But, consider that billions and billions of dollars are affected by their inflation forecasting models. Wall Street wants accuracy, not BS. So, I think they probably do a decent job. Accuracy in the change in inflation perhaps, not the magnitude.  Anyone measuring infl...
by systemskeptic
Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

Ain't going to happen. If you put out bad logic, I'm going to call you on it. If you don't want me to respond, the best thing you can do is not post in the first place. If a mountain made of logic collapsed on you, you wouldn't even need to brush off the logic dust. Back on topic please. Last frien...
by systemskeptic
Wed Oct 30, 2013 2:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

As I mentioned in an earlier comment, ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) is widely considered to be another respected third-party source for inflation data. The bond market does pay attention to what ECRI says. Shadowstats appears to be a scam as best as I can tell. He has been reporting very...
by systemskeptic
Wed Oct 30, 2013 10:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

Not sure what to tell you. I don't represent the company. I don't really care that much to spend time investigating them. And I see no reason why MIT researchers and State Street Global would be in cahoots with the government. (State Street would lose all of its business if it wasn't reasonably cor...
by systemskeptic
Tue Oct 29, 2013 7:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

Moda/Gumby, Can you provide more details on the MIT methodology / validation?  For instance if I want to spot check an item they are using in their measurements how can I do that?  Is the full dataset available for public viewing? MIT gets their data from PriceStats. PriceStats is a private company...
by systemskeptic
Tue Oct 29, 2013 5:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

MediumTex wrote: I remember in the late 1980s I bought some CDs that paid a little over 9%.  I am certain that for the duration of these CDs I was not dealing with a 9% rate of inflation, and thus these instruments provided me a positive real rate of return.
What was the duration of that CD? 
by systemskeptic
Tue Oct 29, 2013 5:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

Moda/Gumby,

Can you provide more details on the MIT methodology / validation?  For instance if I want to spot check an item they are using in their measurements how can I do that?  Is the full dataset available for public viewing?
by systemskeptic
Tue Oct 29, 2013 1:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

Do you have inflation in some goods and deflation in others at all times?? No...inflation or deflation occurs in a currency zone not in individual items.  Individual items can go up or down for a host of reasons, that is price action not inflation.  This is why you arguing guns (affected by politic...
by systemskeptic
Tue Oct 29, 2013 11:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

From Billion prices project: "PriceStats runs a set of automatic procedures to ensure that the data can be used for inflation measurement."

Here is a funny procedure: If (measured inflation > official CPI) {next;}
by systemskeptic
Tue Oct 29, 2013 10:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.
Replies: 348
Views: 112135

Re: Chances of losing (and winning!) are close to zero.

Marc, Agree with the above point.  Trying to prove inflation with a basket of goods is likely impossible because there will always be people who argue that they have a different basket of goods.  The absolute worst rate you can possible get on an investment is in short duration bonds / CDs.  If thos...