How's everyone enjoying their false protection? Gold and Cash were both winners today. How is that false protection? Honestly, Budd, I don't know whether to pity you or laugh at you. You're about as miserable as it gets. That sums it up succinctly, nice job! I don’t have $6.00 USD in 3 ETF’s so I d...

Budd, you've known for years that the PP does not do what you want it to do. You want it to zig while stocks zag on an intraday basis. It does not do that. And it's creating a massive drag on your returns during one of the greatest and longest bull markets in history. Why would you allocate any of t...

I see; so when there’s fear the masses run to BTC. That makes sense now. Can’t tell if you are being serious because nobody said anything close to that. Bitcoin dropped 25% between 2/5 and 2/6 during the most volatile market day in a decade. The masses ran out of bitcoin far faster than any other a...

Let me be clear, I am not advocating buying BTC but merely pointing out on a day where the DOW fell 1000+ points BTC rose 10% while Gold only 0.24% That doesn't seem unusual to anyone on this forum? Think about that for a moment. Techno, not sure what you are talking about but you missed the point ...

Sorry this happened to you kbg. This was actually a fascinating case study. Here's what I took away from it: I'm going to use the term "M1/M2" to represent the basket of VIX futures XIV inversely tracks. Intraday XIV only has a hypothetical NAV. CS isn't wheeling and dealing M1/M2 all day ...

Good to see iwealth writing again! I think I last saw you write about leaving gold saying you “get stocks”, i.e. understand them and thus presumably were about to put more in them. I’m a bit envious! I’m sticking with the pp, but I would have been fine staying in nearly all stocks in 2010 instead. ...

The technicals don't look good for TLT, but who knows? I'm definitely going to be buying some soon if this continues. I struggle to find a good investment thesis for bonds right now. Wages are rising, inflation next? The economy is humming. Earnings are excellent. Tax reform done. Recession isn't o...

buddtholomew wrote:Thanks Tyler.
I am trying to identify an asset that correlates well with a rising dollar and so far only UUP ETF appears to meet the requirement.

I have no way of testing this, but I bet you'd be better off shorting a basket of international currencies. Easily done through a brokerage like IB.

It was just a rant, btw. 70/30 to 30/70 was just an example. A 60/40 to all cash switch looks great in tests as well. Heck, maybe add 10% gold and do 60/30/10 when bullish switch to 90 cash/10 gold when bearish. The exact allocation isn't important. The goal would be to mitigate risk (loss) during b...

More and more lately I've been considering abandoning the idea of risk parity portfolios like the PP and doing something like a 70/30 switch into a 30/70 when indicated by basic mechanical timing signals. I don't believe one can "time the market" from a day-trading perspective, but backtes...

27, and I also have no idea how I'd have answered some of those questions under different financial circumstances.

17, Budd, sheesh

Kbg wrote:and tax treatment is vastly superior in a taxable account

This wouldn't necessarily be true if you only rebalance yearly which I believe you've advocated if running a VP with the 3x ETFs...right?

Does it make sense to cash out with a 13% YTD taxable account based on the fact that historically the HBPP seldom yields over 13%. I am happy with 13% but I would pay a huge tax if I cashed out. I am retired and in the PP for the long run so I would have to buy back in Jan 2017. This means I would ...

People don’t need to feel as though they need to choose between belief in God and holding to scientific truths. There is a better alternative: studying the ever-increasing scientific evidence with an open mind to the very real possibility of God’s existence. https://cccdiscover.com/5-reasons-why-sc...

Good example. AND, you also need to start out when the funds are fresh or split to make them more even. Doing this strategy now with DUST at $5 and NUGT at $154, well, they are already severely unbalanced. Due to the nature of these instruments, this should not matter as long as you buy equivalent ...

Hasn't kbg already shown that for trending non/inversely correlated assets, the decay actually works in your favor? I'd be most worried when all PP assets are in a sideways market. The problem is that these correlations are not consistent and positive correlations between assets can last for extend...

Also keep in mind that a falling 3x leveraged instrument will approach zero rather quickly so if the underlying asset rebounds, you will not participate in proportionate gains. Quick example: If the underlying asset price is 100 and it falls 30% to 70 then rises 50% to 105. The 3x ETF is 100 and it ...

Similar to the last C.S. Lewis quote above, my Pastor said yesterday in his Sermon titled Team God, you are either on Team God/Team Jesus (believers in the promises) or on Team Satan (everyone else). He preached a great sermon on how our current culture tries to say everyone is OK, we are all the s...

What about the value of buying put options for your own stock, bond and gold funds, termed a year out? It's not uncommon in PP to have one stinker and two productive assets each year, with cash always being roughly flat. I haven't looked at an option table for years, but do the numbers for buying p...

To the big dismay of my mother, who literally thought my children were damned and were going to grow horns and be terrible people if I did not baptize them (I did not and they are fine). She's learned to live with it as she's gotten older. I also grew up Catholic and parted ways with religion long ...

Forgive my random question, but you are an anomaly to me. In my life, I've had very little exposure to people with true unwavering devotion to faith. If you present enough scenarios, it's usually simple to find the one that breaks the camel's back. You are lucky that what you believe in so unconditi...

Mountaineer,

Sorry if this seems like it's coming out of left field, and perhaps you've addressed it somewhere in this thread, but can you conceive of any event occurring in your life or another's that would change your faith?

- If you are forced to buy the stock at $80 you could immediately begin selling covered calls to generate income while trying to get out of the stock. I did this a few weeks ago with GILD... All that said, can anyone think of another downside to the strategy that I'm missing, other than the time co...

Hey everyone, Just curious if any of you have used options to manage risk and increase income inside your PP. Since cash is earning 0% right now it looks like selling puts on stocks you wouldn't mind owning could generate a reasonable return of 5-10% per year. That's my first idea, anyone else doin...

Apparently you have discovered a market anomaly: a profitable opportunity that no one is seizing. In that case, you should have no trouble with the following plan, which will in fact be greatly aided by your gender. Just open your own competing law firm, hiring women only, and pay them 90% as much ...