Search found 76 matches

by glennds
Fri May 08, 2020 5:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Calling Harry Browne nerds re: Devaluation
Replies: 3
Views: 362

Calling Harry Browne nerds re: Devaluation

Are there any Harry Browne devotees out there hardcore enough to have been reading his old books? Well I'm re-reading " How you can Profit from the coming devaluation " written in 1970. This is the book that made HB quite famous since most of his predictions came true, especially with regard to infl...
by glennds
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Portfolio safety in extreme cases
Replies: 49
Views: 1690

Re: Portfolio safety in extreme cases

Right. Then the $trillions that the government is printing to bail out everyone come roaring in as a tsunami of hyperinflation. But again, my suggestion would only be relevant in a hyperinflation where gold is going straight up. If that was going to happen, why didn't it happen last time they fired...
by glennds
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are you "staying the course"?
Replies: 39
Views: 1660

Re: Are you "staying the course"?

It is very possible that the Permanent Portfolio has not yet shown us its shine under the present shock. If I recall correctly, when the financial crisis hit the fan, the PP dropped and then after a several weeks, both buckets of long bonds and gold took over carrying the load. The bonds I think bec...
by glennds
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1348
Views: 243879

Re: Stock scream room

I've heard it said that the issue with the equity markets right now is that we all know there is and will be a shock to the earnings of most (nearly all) companies. The problem is we don't know how severe it will be, we don't know how long it will last, we don't know what the government will do to a...
by glennds
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes
Replies: 31
Views: 4020

Re: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes

Quite a few years ago in Arizona, there was a wildfire that came to be called the Rodeo-Chediski fire. It escalated into an emergency situation. It got large enough that there was a lot of panic and hysteria, so I remember vividly that the firefighting effort organized a central command of some type...
by glennds
Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes
Replies: 31
Views: 4020

Re: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes

I'm not sure what the government should do exactly, beyond what the CDC is already doing? Supporting research funding, vaccine development and (eventually) distribution, yes. But what else? Helping to keep medical supplies flowing, maybe, but even there, what can they do? Encourage domestic manufac...
by glennds
Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes
Replies: 31
Views: 4020

Re: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes

The amount of cases are growing so fast it is really impossible to guess the mortality rate until it's all said and done. This very well could be 6-7% mortality. Not saying that I believe it is that high, but it is possible. Either way, it's worse than the media is reporting because their statistic...
by glennds
Wed Feb 26, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes
Replies: 31
Views: 4020

Re: COVID-19 and Safe Deposit Boxes

If the coronavirus starts spreading here in the US, it'll be bad, but not THAT bad. I looked up some statistics to gauge its impact compared to the flu. In a nutshell, the mortality rate is higher than the flu, but it is not as contagious. There are 75,000 known cases in China; in reality the numbe...
by glennds
Thu Feb 13, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP
Replies: 11
Views: 4614

Re: A popular blogger misses most of it with Gold and the PP

I believe where real estate as an investment (i.e. rental property, fix and flip) trips people up is the accounting required in order to properly assess what is going on. For example if you buy a bond, you pay for it once, then you receive interest payments, and then you sell it (or it is redeemed)....
by glennds
Fri Sep 20, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?
Replies: 96
Views: 32953

Re: Gold / Stock / Bonds at highs or near highs?

If you're uncomfortable going in all at once, why not ease in? For example transition 1/4 of your funds each quarter over the course of a year. Or longer, or shorter, your call. Either way, there's no real way to answer your questions except in 20/20 hindsight. But I would think easing in would subs...
by glennds
Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:45 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds
Replies: 72
Views: 18570

Re: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds

Let me get this straight... the discussion is among a group of believers in a defensive portfolio strategy built around the premise that nobody can predict the future. And we are questioning one of the four components of that same portfolio because of our prognosis of the future? I think the discus...
by glennds
Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds
Replies: 72
Views: 18570

Re: Realistic Expectations for Long Bonds

Let me get this straight... the discussion is among a group of believers in a defensive portfolio strategy built around the premise that nobody can predict the future.
And we are questioning one of the four components of that same portfolio because of our prognosis of the future?