Yes, it was based on the CPI. Here's the non-inflation-adjusted chart:



If we want to talk about what would be a "bottom", we must consider the possibility that 2000 to 2011 was a bubble, and that a more reasonable price would be closer to $400.

Here's the inflation-adjusted price of gold:



Still look like a "historic bottom"?

I wouldn't be too critical of the author. He does get the basic message right: "it doesn't necessarily make sense to give up on a strategy for having a bad year or two." Although I wouldn't call this a bad year. 2008 was a bad year: -37% return for the S&P 500; -57% from 10/2007 to 3/2...

William Bernstein's opinion: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/799/january.htm.

Target Date funds would be very difficult to backtest because the returns for any year would vary by the target date of the fund (there are currently 8 different allocations), and each fund's asset allocations vary over time, so you'd need to determine the actual asset allocations for the fund for e...

I'm new to the forum but have been a lurker for a couple of years now.  I have been using the HBPP for sometime with minor modifications.  I also follow Mebane Faber and his fine research work and thought I would post this research project from Gestaltu...  I would be interested in what the experts...