Search found 1982 matches
- Thu Mar 14, 2024 4:08 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: What am I missing here?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 431
Re: What am I missing here?
I agree to a great extent. However, it’s not about just wealth, but value, Barrett. New treatments for ailments, the democratization of the cellphone, etc. Granted there are all kinds of problems — surprise medical costs & out-of-pocket health insurance rates; unaffordable housing, and so forth. Bu...
- Wed Mar 13, 2024 9:56 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: What am I missing here?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 431
Re: What am I missing here?
• 50K to 350K over 15 years is 13.85% annualized, right? Is that so dramatic? This is why I’ve always been stock heavy. • As we know, the market moves in fits and starts, thus “time in the market, not timing the market.” What was that ten-year period where the S&P returned nothing? Maybe 2000 to 20...
- Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:32 am
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: What am I missing here?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 431
Re: What am I missing here?
Could anyone explain to me what caused such a dramatic increase? Has US productivity increased that much? I believe that the Trump tax cuts in late 2017 (TCJA) helped stocks here in the US a lot. This is hardly a thrilling read but might help: https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/how-did-t...
- Wed Mar 13, 2024 6:11 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: What's the actual rationale for investing in long term bonds?
- Replies: 15
- Views: 584
Re: What's the actual rationale for investing in long term bonds?
I decided back in about 2017 not to hold long bonds because they tend to do great for a short period of time and then give up their gains quickly. See the data here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30 Plug in an earlier start date so that you can see their performance in late 2008 and early 20...
- Fri Mar 01, 2024 5:18 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)
- Replies: 17
- Views: 1230
Re: Placement of cash (vs other PP assets)
Cash: looks like these high interest rates aren’t going to last anyway. You may be right - but it's so thorny trying to predict the future. Actually you ARE right given a long enough time horizon. How long? Who knows! It's probably a good idea to make sure anything you do is reversible in case we e...
- Tue Feb 06, 2024 6:16 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Will following the tips of 'longevity gurus' really keep you healthy to 100? From walking barefoot and ice baths to pump
- Replies: 2
- Views: 672
Re: Will following the tips of 'longevity gurus' really keep you healthy to 100? From walking barefoot and ice baths to
Didn't read the article, but the one thing I would add to boglerdude's list is having favorable genetics. In fact that may outweigh all other factors put together. Of course, one can't change anything about their genetics. Boglerdude's post outlines several changes that one can consciously take.
- Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:48 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Life Insurance in Retirement
- Replies: 1
- Views: 151
Re: Life Insurance in Retirement
A few random thoughts... There's obviously no one-size-fits-all answer for this but I cancelled my life insurance last year (at age 64) with about seven years left on a 20-year term. My wife is almost 57 and still has hers. My premium was high(ish) at about $115 per month. In our case our house is p...
- Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:17 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024
- Replies: 15
- Views: 74257
Re: Harry Dent: ‘Crash of a Lifetime’ Coming in 2024
Can’t wait to hear what Jeremy Grantham has to say. “ This time…” O0 Or that guy who’s been advertising on the finance news channels for 2 years saying something terrible is coming. Man, this got me thinking about Jim Rickards and the first hit I got was a a podcast from 2/2/23 in which he predicte...
- Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:05 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2023 Returns
- Replies: 25
- Views: 110698
Re: 2023 Returns
a cnbc article states: The benchmark S&P 500 ended the year with a 24.2% gain, … An investor who had $500,000 in the S&P 500 index around 12 months ago, would have roughly $630,000 now, according to an analysis by Morningstar Direct. Without really doing the calculation, wouldn’t that mean not a 24...
- Sat Dec 30, 2023 4:09 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2023 Returns
- Replies: 25
- Views: 110698
Re: 2023 Returns
Don't have an exact number but it looks like our investment accounts are up 14% to 15% this year. Those accounts are roughly 35% stocks, 15% gold and 50% short-term US debt. So we've avoided the negative impact of poor long bond returns but will also lose out should interest rates continue to declin...
- Mon Dec 04, 2023 6:14 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating
- Replies: 4
- Views: 6057
Re: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating
Curious why you posted this article, Vinny, as it seems to be a plug for this particular fund while expounding on its thoroughly average results. For example: << Given its buttoned-up process, the fund’s long-term performance has been near the median of inflation-protected bond peers. Its Admiral sh...
- Sat Nov 18, 2023 10:03 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years
- Replies: 24
- Views: 32330
Re: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years
Just wanted to add the obvious.. that if the 5/1/24 reset ends up being just a shade over the current 1.3%, it's perhaps advantageous to buy now (or toward the end of January, 2024 if you have already purchased your $10,000 max for 2023) and get the clock ticking a few months sooner. Much depends on...
- Thu Nov 16, 2023 2:02 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years
- Replies: 24
- Views: 32330
Re: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years
What is the earliest date when the fixed rate forecast becomes more or less accurate? Will it be a couple weeks before May 1st? I want to set up a reminder for myself so I don't miss the narrow window to buy at the current rate if the announced May rate will be lower. Alas, the fixed rate is usuall...
- Mon Nov 06, 2023 11:40 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend
- Replies: 6
- Views: 16139
Re: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend
Quick question, Vinny... Have you actually bought any TIPS yet or are you still just researching them? Have not yet bought any. But when I do it will be significant mega-amounts. The urgency has somewhat been mitigated by the present levels of yield from the Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund. The...
- Mon Nov 06, 2023 3:56 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend
- Replies: 6
- Views: 16139
Re: High TIPS Yields Are a Retiree’s Best Friend
Quick question, Vinny...
Have you actually bought any TIPS yet or are you still just researching them?
Have you actually bought any TIPS yet or are you still just researching them?
- Fri Nov 03, 2023 9:09 am
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: Selling “cash” SCHO
- Replies: 4
- Views: 4423
Re: Selling “cash” SCHO
I want sell some of my SCHO etf that has been reinvesting bond yields. Do I sell the purchases that are making money or do I sell the purchases that are down? Or does it make a difference? You didn't specify if this is in a taxable account or not. If not, I don't see why it would make a difference....
- Tue Oct 31, 2023 3:37 pm
- Forum: Cash
- Topic: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years
- Replies: 24
- Views: 32330
Re: I-Bond fixed rate rises to 1.3%, highest in more than 16 years
Thanks for posting that, ocho. I may get my wife to buy some in January. We both did the gift box for 2023 and I don't want to do that again (just a personal preference). I think David Enna's articles are good but I have an issue with this statement: << In my most recent projection I estimated that ...
- Thu Oct 19, 2023 5:59 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Funds
- Topic: prpfx
- Replies: 3
- Views: 9380
Re: prpfx
Found this Morningstar link: https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/prpfx/portfolio If I am reading the numbers correctly, it looks like most of their bonds are short duration corporates with most of those bonds having a BBB rating. If they have been following this strategy of holding lots of lower ...
- Sat Oct 07, 2023 12:58 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
- Replies: 22
- Views: 18420
Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Not a bond expert at all, but... The concept of escape velocity is pretty simple, at least as explained in the article Kevin provided in the first post. But the issue I have with the concept as presented is that long duration bonds will always remain unattractive (when just considering escape veloci...
- Sat Sep 23, 2023 5:36 am
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
- Replies: 63
- Views: 100528
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
https://www.usfunds.com/resource/central-banks-are-buying-gold-at-a-record-pace-so-far-in-2023/ This is after record purchases in 2022. Are there any reasons to explain these purchases besides them knowing something we don’t know? Mostly Russia, China, Turkey, Singapore. Perhaps preferring to buy g...
- Fri Sep 22, 2023 7:01 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
- Replies: 9
- Views: 38072
Re: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
Double posted something. Sorry about that!
- Fri Sep 22, 2023 6:58 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
- Replies: 9
- Views: 38072
Re: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
I was really glad I had long term TBonds in 2008. They saved my portfolio. Now it just seems like they'll never come back and the roof will finally cave in. Do I rebalance and buy some more? Or get the hell out? Long bonds to me have always been sort of an Achilles Heel of the PP just because their...
- Thu Sep 21, 2023 9:49 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
- Replies: 9
- Views: 38072
Re: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
While I don't follow the US market much, it seems both bonds and shares are rather elevated in price. As I couldn't find the 30y bond price, imagine you have 50% 10 year bonds, 25% each shares & gold. Thoughts? 30-year yields are elevated but not their price... which is probably what you meant to w...
- Thu Sep 21, 2023 5:31 am
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
- Replies: 9
- Views: 38072
Re: TBonds saved me in 2008. Now, not sure what to do now.
I was really glad I had long term TBonds in 2008. They saved my portfolio. Now it just seems like they'll never come back and the roof will finally cave in. Do I rebalance and buy some more? Or get the hell out? Long bonds to me have always been sort of an Achilles Heel of the PP just because their...
- Tue Aug 29, 2023 12:33 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
- Replies: 63
- Views: 100528
Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Back when kbg was posting on here (I wish he still were), he would often point out that gold was getting weaker or stronger mainly due to which way the US Dollar Index was moving. This data only goes back to 1/1/2000 but is probably worth a look: https://en.macromicro.me/collections/45/mm-gold-price...