Wouldn’t the fact that short term rates are at -1% mean that the Fed has either lost control or is allowing this to happen? What if this goes further and stays irrational longer than one can stay solvent? I guess what I am trying to ask is what makes us so sure that they will do Operation Twist in ...

What am I missing? It seems like inflation is the only way out. 1) Inflation reduces the effective debt. 2) Printing money is essentially a wealth tax that hasn't hit the general consciousness yet. So - cheap easy way to handle government spending. Given that, I do understand that there is enormous...

mj...gotcha, thanks for the reply.

A 2019 study by Fortuna Advisors shows that 64 percent of companies in the S&P 500 had negative buyback effectiveness, implying that a company’s buyback return on investment (ROI), though positive, was lower than its total shareholder return (TSR), usually due to poor buyback timing and suboptimal ...

Sorry, my question was really, if not history what do you base your overall allocation on?

Perhaps I misread your earlier post.

Well that's the crux of it, isn't it? Too bad we can't see into the future. If we could all this would be easy. So mathjak gets up in the morning and says today my allocation will be...what? How about tomorrow and the next day and the XsubN days after that? What do you base it on, a random number ge...

You basically get the return of ITTs with the stability of a money market fund. In it's entire history the G fund has never went down even for a day. That sounds so awesome it should be restricted to government employees. Regular citizens don't deserve a rigged investment like that. Also, if it mak...

Go back to when gold imploded in the early 80s, it's right there. Of course before that gold had gone vertical for a couple of years. Investing/trading tip...when something goes vertical on a chart, it NEVER ends well. Beware annual or monthly smoothing effects. If you don't have daily data you don'...

Everyone knows the PP has had a 29% max drawdown, right?

The biggest challenge is knowing in advance which stocks are going to be around for 30 years. I would definitely modify with something that tossed out stocks from time to time and selected new ones. If one didn't want the hassle of self managing a concentrated ETF that focuses on dividends with a go...

Yeah, my feeling is it's really a personal choice. Whatever works best for the individual so long as they know the +/-s going in and are good with the tradeoffs.

People should spend some time looking at Portfolio Visualizer and go through the PPs annual returns. This portfolio, like pretty much every portfolio, displays return to mean characteristics. 2019 and 2020 were two of the better years ever for the PP. You can almost go to the bank on it not doing al...

No comment on the goodness or badness of the statement, but I did think it interesting Yellen called out bitcoin as specifically being bad for the environment last week/earlier this week. "“I don’t think that bitcoin … is widely used as a transaction mechanism,” she told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin at...

Very instructive and thanks to all for all the assistance. It seems that if one goes the ETF route, you don't get the duration that a straight up 30yr LTT gives you. You can tell from looking at the yield on these ETFs that they don't have as much duration, but then you don't have as much durationa...

If gold goes to a billion and you sell a coin for a billion in cash and report a billion in income to the banana republic government.......thats on you. If the government hyperinflates, you shouldn't think they will honor roth ira promises. Gold is best owned in physical form, secure from legal and...

It's a fine portfolio. Has the exact same Sharpe Ratio as the PP and gives you about 1.2% CAGR points a year more.

However, an even better portfolio is 50 stock and 25 each to LTTs and gold.

vnatale wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:13 am

Would Vanguard be considered a "good broker"? Fidelity?

IDK. Call them up and ask them if they provide trade execution statistics or reporting in general and on your specific trades/account.

The reason I opted out of TLT was the expense ratio but with a .05 % expense ratios - It's pretty hard to beat SCHQ and VGLT. And it saves the hassle of buying and selling LTT's at auction. But a pro with an actual LTT, is that your only counter party is the US Govt. You will get your money back. T...

If you are interested in objectivity vs. doom porn just track the following three data series at FRED: CPI, M2, M2V When CPI actually starts heading to inflationary levels and M2V is pointed up and if M2 remains pointed up then start wringing your hands. M2V is so pathetically low right now it's ri...

The main issues are 1. Can you execute as effectively, efficiently and as cheaply as the ETF ? (no, you can't) 2. Which is the larger cost? The costs of the above or the cost of the ETF management fee? (probably unknown because it is highly unlikely you will do the things you need to do to even know...

We lived in different areas of west Texas for about 4 years and for the towns that aren't clearly dying they can be very cool and eclectic in terms of what they offer. One place we particularly liked was a place that had this old 1940s movie theater that was completely restored to its original art d...

If you are interested in objectivity vs. doom porn just track the following three data series at FRED: CPI, M2, M2V When CPI actually starts heading to inflationary levels and M2V is pointed up and if M2 remains pointed up then start wringing your hands. M2V is so pathetically low right now it's rid...

usermane wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 18, 2021 2:37 pm

What I'm hoping to be is roughly right rather than precisely wrong.

With any of this stuff, this is the best we can hope for and is a good goal to strive for.

I saw a pretty funny meme the other day which instantly reminded me of the board.

If you ever get lost in the wilderness start talking about taxation and a libertarian will seemingly appear out of nowhere to start arguing with you.

Mark, No idea on the tax implications. If they are considered 1256 contracts then I would think the same 60/40 mark to market rules apply. That may be worth some googling time and/or looking through the CME website for these contracts. I'd be a little surprised if the CME doesn't have some info on t...