Search found 142 matches

by Ugly_Bird
Fri Mar 05, 2021 10:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1265

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

GBTC is currently at negative premium, about -8%. So "could" be a good time to buy. Or the days of 20,30,40% premium are over and end of an era. I bought it right before it lost fat premium. Now it keeps eroding. How it could be 40.5 when BTC is at 48k ? Arrrh :-( As long as GBTC and Grayscale (who...
by Ugly_Bird
Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1265

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Thu Mar 04, 2021 10:29 am
GBTC is currently at negative premium, about -8%. So "could" be a good time to buy. Or the days of 20,30,40% premium are over and end of an era.
I bought it right before it lost fat premium. Now it keeps eroding. How it could be 40.5 when BTC is at 48k ? Arrrh :-(
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Mar 01, 2021 4:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1265

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

I Shrugged wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 4:07 pm
The more bad things Janet Yellen says about bitcoin, the more you should think that it is good. I don't own any but that point should be obvious as heck.
Hah! It makes sense :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1265

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

I just don't want to put money into something that they're going to quash. And there is a good chance they will. If they cannot control it they destroy it... or at least try. Remember how gold was ones confiscated? :-) i’m not quite that old. O0 Neither am I. But HBPP book mentions that in the chap...
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Mar 01, 2021 12:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1265

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

dualstow wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 11:58 am
I just don't want to put money into something that they're going to quash.
And there is a good chance they will. If they cannot control it they destroy it... or at least try.
Remember how gold was ones confiscated? :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1265

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

dualstow wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:22 am
could be / I hope so.
If Bitcoin is "digital gold" and it crashes, the direction the sell-off money would follow is obvious. Or ... maybe not :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1265

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

dualstow wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 9:56 am
And, I think it’s a very real thing that btc inflows are hurting gold inflows.
It is probably the case, but next time Bitcoin crashes 70-80% (and it will as the part of 4 year halving cycle) gold should catch up when it happens.
by Ugly_Bird
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1265

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

I’ve read some studies showing a 1% allocation to Bitcoin and 99% to cash has had crazy good returns with great sharpe ratios. 90% bitcoin and 10% cash is better :-) I decided to stick to 80%/10% works OK so far. Rebalanced at 54k recently, the next one should be at112k It is important to be conser...
by Ugly_Bird
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP
Replies: 76
Views: 1265

Re: Bitcoin as a complement or alternative to gold in the PP

vnatale wrote:
Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:23 am
you'd have had to achieved nearly 900% return on Bitcoin?
That's pretty humble for BTC. From recent trough at $3200 to recent high at $58000 or so it was about 1800%
And $58k most likely not the limit. After reaching the max it will crash again loosing 70-80%.
by Ugly_Bird
Tue Feb 23, 2021 5:31 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin ETF in Canada
Replies: 12
Views: 310

Re: Bitcoin ETF in Canada

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Fri Feb 19, 2021 12:45 pm
Also you can roll your retirement account into a 401K that you form (w/lawyer, etc) and buy actual BTC and hold it if youd like as well.
If just for that purpose then it is OK. But in general rollover from IRA to 401k doesn't make sense. Usually ERs there are crazy.
by Ugly_Bird
Fri Feb 19, 2021 4:02 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3002
Views: 739679

Re: The GOLD scream room

The recent gold decline has caused the value of my PP to fall below a leading digit threshold in my retirement account. >:( >:( I think PP should have a small fraction of crypto. It would help when crypto skyrocketing but work as before when crypto will crash. Added GBTC to my IRA. So far tt helps ...
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Feb 17, 2021 8:30 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin ETF in Canada
Replies: 12
Views: 310

Re: Bitcoin ETF in Canada

whatchamacallit wrote:
Fri Feb 12, 2021 10:03 pm
Being able to buy bitcoin in a retirement account seems like a game changer more than the ETF itself. A lot more purchasing power in retirement accounts I would imagine.
Not an ETF but GBTC works pretty well in my IRA so far :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 549
Views: 226416

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Foreign investors resumed selling U.S. Treasury bonds and notes in December, Treasury department data on Tuesday showed, after they made net purchases in November. On a transaction basis, foreigners sold $20.7 billion in Treasuries in December, after buying $9.6 billion of them in November, the U.S...
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:25 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3002
Views: 739679

Re: The GOLD scream room

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:16 am
Examples. A billion is measly!
100 trillion :-)
71j-2+22P+L._AC_SL1281_.jpg
71j-2+22P+L._AC_SL1281_.jpg (155.82 KiB) Viewed 568 times
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:07 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3002
Views: 739679

Re: The GOLD scream room

SomeDude wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:13 am
GSR under 70
Oooops! :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 10
Views: 668

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:00 pm
Holding bitcoin can be impossible to detect in the physical world, etc.
But cashing out would be difficult.
by Ugly_Bird
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:23 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1136

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

So, I went ahead and bought GBTC on my Traditional IRA with Fidelity. :-) Now the question is what kind of orders I need too place there to sell at certain points? That would be two scenarios: 1) Hits the same price I bought at (to prevent loss) 2) Doubles the price I bought at Would it be some kin...
by Ugly_Bird
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:13 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1136

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

So, I went ahead and bought GBTC on my Traditional IRA with Fidelity. :-) Now the question is what kind of orders I need too place there to sell at certain points? That would be two scenarios: 1) Hits the same price I bought at (to prevent loss) 2) Doubles the price I bought at Would it be some kin...
by Ugly_Bird
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1136

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

pors wrote:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:44 am
Why would you buy GBTC with a 2% annual fee if you can buy the real thing?
Because there is no real thing for the tax deferred account.
2% fee is much better than paying tax for XXX% profit :-)

I do have the real thing in another account
by Ugly_Bird
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:22 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1136

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

One quick question: Will this be done in a regular cash brokerage account or an IRA/401k? I might have an idea/suggestion that you may wish to consider. Actually I was thinking about this question. Even at this price I may buy some GBTC on my IRA and sell when BTC hits 100k or sell at about the sam...
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1136

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

One quick question: Will this be done in a regular cash brokerage account or an IRA/401k? I might have an idea/suggestion that you may wish to consider. Thank you for your reply. It is going to be in a brokerage. Not implementing that kind of VP through IRA/401k :-) In this case I would ask that yo...
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 1136

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

One quick question: Will this be done in a regular cash brokerage account or an IRA/401k? I might have an idea/suggestion that you may wish to consider. Actually I was thinking about this question. Even at this price I may buy some GBTC on my IRA and sell when BTC hits 100k or sell at about the sam...
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 10
Views: 668

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

bitcoininthevp wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:20 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:16 pm
Most likely it is a temporary thing while BTC is bullish.
But regardless, do you think people are actually taking billions out of gold and putting it into bitcoin?
I do not think so. At least yet :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 10
Views: 668

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Im curious if bitcoin really is becoming a competitor to gold. Im a fan of both assets. Since October: More than $3bn of inflows into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust More than $7bn of outflows from Gold ETFs https://i.ibb.co/CHDKg3H/Eq6q-Gwu-XYAAhm6o.jpg Does anyone else have other data sets on this? Most ...
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:31 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3002
Views: 739679

Re: The GOLD scream room

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:59 pm
Bitcoin sell-off = Gold’s benefit
Good point. That should happen sometimes this year.
Depends when BTC drops 70-80%