Search found 279 matches

by InsuranceGuy
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach
Replies: 69
Views: 25066

Re: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach

Model is now 50% in Long-Term Treasury bonds and 50% in Short-Term Treasury bonds.
by InsuranceGuy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 4920

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

Am I the only one that gets more tempted to *BUY* bonds the more I hear people on forums hating on them??? Usually, the contrarian indicator goes that whatever is the most hated asset on Internet forums at the moment is the one most likely to go up. I have been thinking of posting the same thing. I...
by InsuranceGuy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.
Replies: 71
Views: 4920

Re: I'm worried about stagflation and am selling all my bonds tomorrow.

Am I the only one that gets more tempted to *BUY* bonds the more I hear people on forums hating on them??? Usually, the contrarian indicator goes that whatever is the most hated asset on Internet forums at the moment is the one most likely to go up. I have been thinking of posting the same thing. I...
by InsuranceGuy
Thu Apr 16, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: IRS CARES act disbursement tracker up
Replies: 2
Views: 249

Re: IRS CARES act disbursement tracker up

I got my direct deposit yesterday. Was waiting for it because I got something based on my 2018 tax return but nothing based on my 2019 tax return so I was waiting to file until I got it.

Filed my 2019 tax return last night even though I heard they extended the filing deadline.
by InsuranceGuy
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question on adding new money
Replies: 13
Views: 1210

Re: Question on adding new money

Down 10% one day so you buy, next day up 10% sell, etc. How would you know that on the next day it will not go down another XX% ? You forgot to quote the relevant part, this only works during times of high volatility. Historically speaking future volatility is correlated with recent volatility. The...
by InsuranceGuy
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:11 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 19
Views: 1266

Re: Coin Flip

OTM options on SPY/SPX should be able to be calibrated to 50/50.
by InsuranceGuy
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question on adding new money
Replies: 13
Views: 1210

Re: Question on adding new money

Rebalancing during times of high volatility can be very profitable. Down 10% one day so you buy, next day up 10% sell, etc. In times of low volatility it does seem best to let it ride until a rebalance band is hit.

IG
by InsuranceGuy
Tue Mar 24, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Strategically taking a 401k loan and/or no-penalty withdrawal
Replies: 64
Views: 3198

Re: Strategically taking a 401k loan and/or no-penalty withdrawal

You take the money out of the account and pay tax on it, fair because you didn't pay tax on it going in. For a loan you do not pay tax when you withdraw. You still pay the loan back with after tax money, correct? Or do you pay it back with pre-tax deductions? If the former, that's double taxation. ...
by InsuranceGuy
Tue Mar 24, 2020 12:41 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Strategically taking a 401k loan and/or no-penalty withdrawal
Replies: 64
Views: 3198

Re: Strategically taking a 401k loan and/or no-penalty withdrawal

sophie wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:47 pm
You take the money out of the account and pay tax on it, fair because you didn't pay tax on it going in.
For a loan you do not pay tax when you withdraw.
by InsuranceGuy
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands
Replies: 26
Views: 4055

Re: Golden Butterfly rebalancing bands

Interestingly, doing a quick backtest showed that the best results for a GB were with rebalancing bands around 5%/35%. Here are the stats for a backtest on 1970-2019: 15%/25% - 10.1% CAGR - 21.5% MaxDD - 5.7% Min10Yr - 0.70 Trades/Yr 10%/30% - 10.5% CAGR - 23.0% MaxDD - 5.9% Min10Yr - 0.26 Trades/Yr...
by InsuranceGuy
Mon Mar 02, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 2577
Views: 90158

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

A rare fact check in Trumps favor about the hoax comment. https://checkyourfact.com/2020/02/29/fa ... ina-rally/
by InsuranceGuy
Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach
Replies: 69
Views: 25066

Re: PP Inspired Momentum - A Comprehensive Approach

It's been a brutal month to be leveraged in Stocks. No model change for the month only deleverage, I'll update the YTD returns with losses after close today. Stay tuned for next month.

IG