one negative is you took away the barbel that cash and long term bonds form that cut the duration on the long term treasuries down quite a bit . in the pp the cash position actually works like a stock option , allowing you to buy more stocks at lower prices but with no expiration date . if i was goi...

kind of reminds me of all those going in to ark funds after the rise already happened

they are but they work with other assets in risk parity fashion .

it is not a performance or timing thing like it is when he talks about missing the worst days in stock and using timing models to get in and out

meh , the reality is no one can not only miss the worst days but they can’t even miss the worst broader time frames . if any of these timing models and proprietary trading systems actually worked , they wouldn’t be telling you, and they would have beaten buffet’s record . so the best we can do is no...

I think I posted in Fall 2022 on one of these threads that it would be a great time to enter the PP, on a severe drawdown (worst of all time, it turns out). Looks like I was right. Since then, HBPP beats 60/40, which it usually doesn't do in a bull market. We're still in a bull market in stocks sin...

once in a while i will use tlt for a quick trade i don’t trust long bonds as a hold at these rates nor as protection there are to many reliable ways to get downside protection today thru alternative investments. i use fidelity conservative bond , fidelity short term bond , fidelity intermediate term...

in my opinion it goes out longer than i would risk today . no reason to really go out longer than 3.5 years or so with pending stag flation or higher inflation with these tariffs, even if reduced fbnd won’t provide much more income and it takes on more interest rate risk . this is why i am staying w...

the markets barely reacted to it .

even the long treasuries had their normal DOWN day .

a pretty MEH day for stocks and just another down day for long term treasuries

tlt certainly taking it on the chin today , pre market down close to 2% .

all the other credit agencies cut our rating many years ago . moodys was the only hold out and now they reduced us like the rest of them . it will be interesting to see if there is any reaction in the stock and bond markets monday . it may just be business as usual unless there is a knee jerk reaction

i use fidelity conservative bond , fidelity short term bond and fidelity intermediate term bond .

nothing goes out more then around 3.6 years

what you have to remember with all these gold funds is expenses are only part of the story . spreads between bid and ask can matter a lot . some of the lowest expense funds in the article barely edged out gld with its .40 expense . i found most of the time for my large trades in gold gld actually do...

interesting enough powell made a statement this morning “Fed’s Powell cautions about higher long-term rates as ‘supply shocks’ provide policy challenges” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux. “We ma...

last time i checked it was true .

but gold certainly beat bonds the last 20 years over almost all time frames .

you have to really cherry pick to find exceptions

Gold The Dollar has doubled halved since the first post of this thread. The dollar is not an investment. O0 trillions of dollars are traded in currency markets daily . it’s as much an investment as as gold is since gold is the dollars competitor . The average daily trading volume in the forex marke...

i hold no tips at all and no long term bonds right now i hold ultra conservative bond funds , short term bond funds and a short to intermediate term bond fund with a duration of 3.6 years . it captures decent rates yet has very low sensitivity to rates . a 7-10% gold position and a very low equity p...

not just lately .

TLT is still, negative over the 1 yr , 3yr , 5 yr and 10 year periods INCLUDING ALL INTEREST

makes sense because with prices rising here it isn’t a case of we buy this and that . we don’t have the money so we will have to choose to buy this or that . someone will always be a loser here in business so inflation isn’t as much an issue as a slow down with higher rates then we typically see in ...

what’s funny is i bought the black rock one thru chase 2 days ago .

chase pays near nothing on cash sweep accounts so i. put any cash in the black rock etf money market from some stuff i sold

bitcoin hadn’t proven itself to be a hedge to anything .
if anything it’s traded like a tech stock following them up and down .

gold is a far better hedge and has proven itself over and over to be better at the last two decades than bonds have been

can’t read it behind the pay wall. i tried archive today and saw only a piece . but i have been saying here for years , the long treasury bonds and rate spikes are the achilles heel of the pp. even once again , those who thought it was safe to go back in the water with them got hammered just now . t...

the pp has been acting worse than a 60/40 as the various other assets get hit along with stocks . so far no protection at all. all that happens is the hole it has to climb out of if things shift gets deeper. it really has been no better and is actually been worse then 25% equities and some 1-3 year ...

i think after it got hammered with everything else in 2022 many realized there is no free lunch . there are very real risks today at what are still historically low rates for a rise in rates to be kryptonite to the pp . there are so many new funds that can likely outperform the pp with less risk to...

i think after it got hammered with everything else in 2022 many realized there is no free lunch . there are very real risks today at what are still historically low rates for a rise in rates to be kryptonite to the pp . there are so many new funds that can likely outperform the pp with less risk to...