Search found 4771 matches

by mathjak107
Sat Mar 14, 2026 5:31 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Long Treasurys
Replies: 12
Views: 6782

Re: Long Treasurys

backed up the truck yesterday and loaded up on VGLT and GOVT at these rates . they are substantially above short term rates now by a wide margin . i don’t ever expect to catch the top and nav prices will fall more from here most likely but eventually this war will end and while we may see higher inf...
by mathjak107
Fri Mar 13, 2026 12:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 462

Re: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?

the cash portion of the pp has an important job to do . it’s the other side of the barbell that averages out the bond side to about an intermediate term bond . by spending down the cash side you will either unbalance the fixed income side or have to sell other assets to refill the cash side . so it’...
by mathjak107
Fri Mar 13, 2026 6:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 462

Re: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?

except that chasing these dividend aristocrats can be near impossible. years ago i decided to track a bunch of the dividend kings The so called dividend aristocrats are only on the list until they aren’t . I did some looking in to them many many years ago . you keep seeing just invest in this group ...
by mathjak107
Fri Mar 13, 2026 6:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 462

Re: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?

damn , wrote a reply and hit report on my damn phone instead of post . at the end of the day it’s your portfolio value that determines your draw , not what money company’s hand you back . taking 4% from berkshire to live on vs a 4% dividend is the same thing except berkshire has better taxation sinc...
by mathjak107
Fri Mar 13, 2026 4:10 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 462

Re: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?

it’s pretty irrelevant if dividends increase or not . it’s only about the appreciation. dividends are a withdrawal method not a gain by itself . it’s assumed if a stock is increasing the payout and giving you back your money then its doing well but the blue chip graveyard is full of failed dividend ...
by mathjak107
Thu Mar 12, 2026 3:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 462

Re: 🔝Considering a Dividend Strategy Alongside a Permanent Portfolio – Does It Make Sense?

any stock can create income . it’s just on you to pay yourself instead of the company doing it for you . so at the end of the day it’s only about total return and appreciation. if you wanted to take a shot with something simple , perhaps the small dogs of the dow are an interesting play . they are t...
by mathjak107
Thu Mar 12, 2026 7:57 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Cockroach Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 382

Re: The Cockroach Portfolio

it looks interesting .

but all these defensive portfolios seem to back test well .

it’s usually when we commit to one that it now behaves differently.

like 2022 which didn’t follow the script as risk was totally off and even defensive portfolios had losses that were pretty nasty
by mathjak107
Sat Mar 07, 2026 7:36 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Long Treasurys
Replies: 12
Views: 6782

Re: Long Treasurys

they have been holding up well considering 90 dollar a barrel oil .

but being so long in duration they are looking out well past this mess.

we have had almost every recession when oil prices were high .

there are one or two exceptions i think
by mathjak107
Mon Feb 16, 2026 8:34 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 7128

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

there are endless dr frankenstein versions of the pp tried over the years and the end results are that other assets are just to wishy washy and not strongly linked to specific outcomes I feel called out LOL it’s like real estate as an example . not only is it localized but if rates go up like we ju...
by mathjak107
Sun Feb 15, 2026 1:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 7128

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

there are endless dr frankenstein versions of the pp tried over the years and the end results are that other assets are just to wishy washy and not strongly linked to specific outcomes
by mathjak107
Fri Feb 13, 2026 12:42 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 7128

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

dualstow wrote: Fri Feb 13, 2026 8:37 am
mathjak107 wrote: Fri Feb 13, 2026 7:14 am just keep it very low as far as a percentage .

i keep it at about 1.50% of invested assets.
With your net worth, that's a lot of money!
it’s enough to keep it interesting but not enough to really hurt
by mathjak107
Fri Feb 13, 2026 7:14 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin in the VP
Replies: 26
Views: 7128

Re: Bitcoin in the VP

just keep it very low as far as a percentage .

i keep it at about 1.50% of invested assets.
by mathjak107
Sat Feb 07, 2026 5:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1011716

Re: BTC in the PP

yep the lexus did a great job protecting us . air bags sandwiched us in and i really like the idea of the knee airbag . i had jumped out of the car fast , just in case the other guy tried to run . but my wife couldn’t get out because the way the car was hit my side elongated and her size contracted...
by mathjak107
Sat Feb 07, 2026 5:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1011716

Re: BTC in the PP

Bitcoin's Price Plunges Below $64,000. Welcome to 2026's 'Crypto Winter' https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-s-price-plunges-welcome-to-2026-s-crypto-winter-mstr-11900072?hid=3da12c628f8f8a8924c17734676714cd31b8acfb&did=21838506-20260205&utm_campaign=investopedia-daily_newsletter&utm_s...
by mathjak107
Sat Feb 07, 2026 5:11 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1011716

Re: BTC in the PP

yep the lexus did a great job protecting us . air bags sandwiched us in and i really like the idea of the knee airbag . i had jumped out of the car fast , just in case the other guy tried to run . but my wife couldn’t get out because the way the car was hit my side elongated and her size contracted ...
by mathjak107
Fri Feb 06, 2026 3:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1011716

Re: BTC in the PP

interesting as i see it playing on the post in the forum.

let me try a different way

https://photos.smugmug.com/FAMILY/n-cK5 ... 8-1280.mp4
by mathjak107
Fri Feb 06, 2026 3:07 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1011716

Re: BTC in the PP

Yikes, I'm really glad you're okay mathjak. And the missus for that matter. Seeing the dashcam footage would indeed be interesting. i am the white lexus . you can see me waiting for the light . being a drummer i was drumming on the wheel waiting . you can see me hesitate for a minute , thankfully o...
by mathjak107
Fri Feb 06, 2026 12:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1011716

Re: BTC in the PP

Modern headrests have greatly reduced whiplash in car accidents. EXCEPT for some reason GM vehicles (at least Suburbans/Tahoes) don't have them in their middle seats. Middle rear: no headrest. Middle middle: no headrest. I recently saw a Suburban with a front-row bench seat. Middle front: no headre...
by mathjak107
Thu Feb 05, 2026 3:36 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1011716

Re: BTC in the PP

I wish I had been smart enough to buy BTC every time it got pummeled in the past. Indeed. It's gone down so much that I'm thinking of buying back in. Not at the same magnitude I did before (like 80%+ of net worth), but enough to have a bit of skin in the game. i have bitcoin as just 1 to 1.25% of t...
by mathjak107
Thu Feb 05, 2026 3:09 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1011716

Re: BTC in the PP

the drop is pretty amazing in bitcoin
by mathjak107
Thu Feb 05, 2026 3:15 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BTC in the PP
Replies: 522
Views: 1011716

Re: BTC in the PP

well bitcoin is no digital gold that’s for sure . it’s been pummeled . i guess the kiss of death is when you see etfs for a specific asset come out in droves . i rebought it again and i am down about 20% but its only a bit over 1% of assets so i will just let it sit indefinitely in ibit the ones lea...
by mathjak107
Tue Feb 03, 2026 4:26 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Long Treasurys
Replies: 12
Views: 6782

Re: Long Treasurys

Yes, the kicker is that we could experience short or longer term deflation, which would shake the world. Although, we (including me) all assume that they will create money to prevent that. Ultimately leading to persistent double digit inflation. Honestly I have found it more productive to not try t...
by mathjak107
Mon Feb 02, 2026 2:46 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Long Treasurys
Replies: 12
Views: 6782

Re: Long Treasurys

his points are very strong
by mathjak107
Mon Feb 02, 2026 4:45 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4146
Views: 3529188

Re: The GOLD scream room

looks like another sell off in gold , crypto and silver this morning …. so selling isn’t done yet