Search found 122 matches

by cowboyhat
Sat Mar 23, 2013 8:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Low-Stress Jobs
Replies: 33
Views: 15434

Re: Low-Stress Jobs

Greeting campers all day in a national park would quickly make me depressed and unhappy, which is the same thing as anxious. That's because I don't like meeting new people and I do like thinking about abstract problems. My current job is clearly stressful to some of my coworkers, but I love it. I be...
by cowboyhat
Sat Mar 23, 2013 8:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Finance and Investing Books
Replies: 38
Views: 17866

Re: Finance and Investing Books

"Your Money and Your Brain" by Jason Zweig. It is interesting, funny, and useful.

"The Signal and the Noise" by Nate Silver. The whole book is worth reading but Chapter 11 lays out investing. The graph on page 351 of the hard cover edition is especially instructive.
by cowboyhat
Sat Mar 23, 2013 12:22 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Too Good to Be True?
Replies: 28
Views: 13085

Re: Too Good to Be True?

I think D1984 and Sophie make good points. Another to consider is that a tight-money recession is only one of the possible ways this may end. I think of it as the "responsible-adults-in-charge" ending, but there is also the "party-on-Wayne" ending where bond prices remain high for the rest of your t...
by cowboyhat
Thu Mar 21, 2013 8:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing Warning
Replies: 13
Views: 7987

Re: Rebalancing Warning

Accumulating in cash is underrated. In the bad old days, I used to try to keep my money "at work" and ran a tight household budget, which generated a lot of anxiety and a certain amount of conflict over Mrs Cowboyhat's little indulgences. An unanticipated bill meant pulling money back out of an inve...
by cowboyhat
Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing Warning
Replies: 13
Views: 7987

Re: Rebalancing Warning

A less technological solution is to just not look at your portfolio except once a year at a predetermined time such as the week between Xmas and New Years. That's a good time because you can make any adjustments related to taxes that seem prudent, and if you don't look pretty soon you'll find that y...
by cowboyhat
Sun Aug 26, 2012 3:10 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What goal do you pursue with your Variable Portfolio
Replies: 74
Views: 27281

Re: What goal do you pursue with your Variable Portfolio

My rule is that it is okay to look anytime, but not to touch. The good thing about that rule is that you get bored of looking and not touching, because what is the point, and then you stop wanting to look.
by cowboyhat
Sat Aug 25, 2012 6:34 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following in Allocation
Replies: 8
Views: 4539

Re: The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following in Allocation

If you are seriously considering trend following realize that the profits for your time and emotional energy are equal to the difference in return between a passive style and an active style after accounting for taxes and costs. Imagine how much time you will spend fretting over market trends and yo...
by cowboyhat
Sat Aug 25, 2012 6:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What goal do you pursue with your Variable Portfolio
Replies: 74
Views: 27281

Re: What goal do you pursue with your Variable Portfolio

I don't have a VP, but one day I will. I'll open it sometime between Christmas and New Years Day during the one week in the year when I allow myself to look at my investments to decide if I should re-balance my PP. What will happen (I'm guessing in 2022, but who knows?) is that I will calculate the ...
by cowboyhat
Mon Aug 20, 2012 6:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Predicting the Presidential Election
Replies: 43
Views: 16018

Re: Predicting the Presidential Election

No, I don't. It is not obvious from the material he has presented on his blog, but he might have discussed estimates of error in his model in a post I have not read. If you look at the graph "Electoral Vote Distribution" down the right hand side of the page you can see the distribution of probabilit...
by cowboyhat
Sun Aug 19, 2012 9:38 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Predicting the Presidential Election
Replies: 43
Views: 16018

Re: Predicting the Presidential Election

Obama and Romney are cheap opportunists, both owned by the banking cartel. For the things that really matter in this world that politics can change it doesn't make a difference which one you vote for, which is strangely good news if you realize the futility of it all and have given up on 2012. Means...
by cowboyhat
Fri Aug 10, 2012 6:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another terrible 401K quandary
Replies: 14
Views: 10771

Re: Another terrible 401K quandary

To follow up on HB Reader's advice, my employer's 401k is with Fidelity and the plan allows me to transfer the company matching funds to my IRA without any tax implications. Only the company matching funds are allowed and it must be into a regular IRA. Doesn't have a huge impact, but helps a little ...
by cowboyhat
Fri Aug 10, 2012 6:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Scared to Take the PP Jump Because of Gold
Replies: 48
Views: 27250

Re: Scared to Take the PP Jump Because of Gold

I would second craigr's advice for a person in your situation: check out Everbank. You can start with allocated or unallocated gold, or unallocated and then later switch your account to allocated. You can buy small amounts (1 oz increments) and open your account with a small minimum (I think it is 5...
by cowboyhat
Tue Jul 31, 2012 6:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio The Gold Medal Winner For Investing?
Replies: 63
Views: 24284

Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio The Gold Medal Winner For Investing?

Clive makes a good point. Most of today's PP investors will drop it in the next bull market in stocks. This Permanent Portfolio as The Gold Medal Winner For Investing thread will be painful for anyone self-aware enough to remember it.
by cowboyhat
Sun Jul 29, 2012 7:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: My New Argument For 12.5% International Stocks/12.5% US Stocks in US-based PP
Replies: 14
Views: 5929

Re: My New Argument For 12.5% International Stocks/12.5% US Stocks in US-based PP

It may be the case that there is not one right answer to how much currency risk an investor should build into their portfolio because people have different amounts of currency exposure depending on what is going on outside their portfolio. For example, if you have a gigantic dollar-based mortgage yo...
by cowboyhat
Sun Jul 29, 2012 7:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP and loans (mortgage, student, or otherwise)
Replies: 21
Views: 9663

Re: PP and loans (mortgage, student, or otherwise)

I think Ad Orientem makes a key point in thinking about your strategy in that student loans are a special kind of debt that can not be discharged by bankruptcy. As I recall the only ways to get get out of them are to do some kind of government service (such as teach in an inner city school) that inc...
by cowboyhat
Sat Jul 28, 2012 7:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is the Permanent Portfolio The Gold Medal Winner For Investing?
Replies: 63
Views: 24284

Re: Is the Permanent Portfolio The Gold Medal Winner For Investing?

Dualstow You should check out Daniel Kahneman's awesome TED lecture on the subject of experience and memory. Be sure to stick around for the question at the end, because it provides an actual dollar figure starting place to think about your paradox. Lecture is 20 minutes long. Completely worth the t...
by cowboyhat
Fri Jul 20, 2012 8:57 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Positive Real Interest Rates
Replies: 14
Views: 9386

Re: Positive Real Interest Rates

If this - real rates explanation is accurate, you could probably collect most of the profits in gold speculation from the current bubble and not worry too much about the tedium of following real interest rates by just watching politics and applying a little common sense character judgement. We aren'...
by cowboyhat
Sun Jul 15, 2012 1:45 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Employee Stock Options: WWHBD?
Replies: 11
Views: 3989

Re: Employee Stock Options: WWHBD?

My employer is a gigantic corporation and the stock price generally moves slowly. The way the options work is that they vest in 1/3s over three years. So, for example, if I were awarded 3000 options I would have the right to exercise 1000 after 1 year against the price the day the award was given, 1...
by cowboyhat
Sat Jul 14, 2012 1:31 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Employee Stock Options: WWHBD?
Replies: 11
Views: 3989

Employee Stock Options: WWHBD?

Looking through the archive I couldn't find a discussion on what to do with employee stock options. Did Harry Browne express an opinion on how to fit them into a PP? As an orthodox PP investor I want to invest according to HB's definition, and not speculate. Sticking to HB's definition of investing ...
by cowboyhat
Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:28 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Roubini's "Perfect Storm" is Unfolding Now
Replies: 5
Views: 2936

Re: Roubini's "Perfect Storm" is Unfolding Now

About a -10% loss for the PP for about 5 months if the past is a guild. Flat PP returns over 12 months. Plus a lot of hysteria on TV. I've been desensitized by all the doomers on the internet and I have no perspective any more on whether something is terrifying or just more noise. Whatever happens, ...
by cowboyhat
Wed May 23, 2012 8:16 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Opinions on Economic Positions in the next Decade and how it affects your VP
Replies: 5
Views: 3246

Re: Opinions on Economic Positions in the next Decade and how it affects your VP

Economists at the SF Federal Reserve think PE ratios are going down over the next ten years as baby boomers try to sell their financial assets to a smaller generation x. They have a nice graph in the paper. http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-26.html If they are right, the...
by cowboyhat
Tue May 01, 2012 8:25 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Life after hyperinflation in Zimbabwe
Replies: 11
Views: 4447

Re: Life after hyperinflation in Zimbabwe

The article discusses the pocket change issue. In Ecuador local coins were used. In Zimbabwe no one trusts the money made by the government, so local coins are out. South African coins are possible but using them involves figuring out an exchange rate conversion between dollar and rand on top of the...
by cowboyhat
Sun Apr 29, 2012 7:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs buying a home
Replies: 13
Views: 6407

Re: PP vs buying a home

Harry Browne's first rule is that most of the money you will have in your life comes from your career. Many young people find that their best career opportunities require a move. From that perspective burdening yourself with a difficult to sell and expensive to maintain house may not be the best cho...
by cowboyhat
Sun Apr 29, 2012 6:48 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: bonds for a rising interest rate enviroment
Replies: 13
Views: 7809

Re: bonds for a rising interest rate enviroment

I recall at one point Clive suggested a Rate Tart approach to a 5 year ladder. The idea, as I understand it, is to buy the best yield available at 5 years or below. This might improve returns slightly over a fund that holds a rigid 5 year ladder especially in cases where interest rates are changing ...
by cowboyhat
Sat Apr 07, 2012 8:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rebalancing strategies
Replies: 17
Views: 9929

Re: Rebalancing strategies

Momentum investing probably works, but it takes real effort and may make you more anxious about your money than is healthy. It is also a lot more expense than passive investing when you take taxes and trading costs into account. Might be worth trying a small experiment before plunging into something...