Search found 1177 matches

by pmward
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:14 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 2111
Views: 63775

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I attribute the declining numbers to the fact that it took hold here first, just like in NYC, and is now burning out, while areas like AZ, FL, TX, etc that didn't get hit hard early are now having their turn. And even in those states, hospitalizations are declining. Not in AZ they aren't. Hospitali...
by pmward
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:10 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Should I include cash and bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 400

Re: Should I include cash and bonds?

It depends on the expected return of the assets. I have not ran the correlations, but in the hypothetical case that the Argentinean peso were to have a highly negative correlation to US stocks, it would not be wise to "diversify" into pesos. They would still sink the portfolio, rebalancing and all....
by pmward
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:26 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 2111
Views: 63775

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Worth a read. A historical account of the flu pandemic in 1918-1919 San Francisco, including the same drama we are going through today with the mask and no mask argument.

https://www.influenzaarchive.org/cities ... cisco.html#
by pmward
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Should I include cash and bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 400

Re: Should I include cash and bonds?

Also, as far as deflation for the last 12 years, look at all the liquidity that has been created by the Fed. Even with that inflation has been under target. Imagine what it would have been like without it. Since 2008 we have been in a secular deflationary cycle. 2008 and 2020 have been the most jarr...
by pmward
Tue Jun 30, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Should I include cash and bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 400

Re: Should I include cash and bonds?

Well, we have had deflation... for 12 years now and going. I do think that bonds have unique diversification benefits, as there are times when bonds will perform well while stocks and gold do not. That being said, if you're ok taking that risk, and have a strong enough stomach for the volatility, t...
by pmward
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 2111
Views: 63775

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I attribute the declining numbers to the fact that it took hold here first, just like in NYC, and is now burning out, while areas like AZ, FL, TX, etc that didn't get hit hard early are now having their turn. And even in those states, hospitalizations are declining. Not in AZ they aren't. Hospitali...
by pmward
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Should I include cash and bonds?
Replies: 15
Views: 400

Re: Should I include cash and bonds?

Well, we have had deflation... for 12 years now and going. I do think that bonds have unique diversification benefits, as there are times when bonds will perform well while stocks and gold do not. That being said, if you're ok taking that risk, and have a strong enough stomach for the volatility, th...
by pmward
Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: FED Yield Curve Control
Replies: 7
Views: 288

Re: FED Yield Curve Control

volcker wrote:
Tue Jun 30, 2020 11:47 am
pmward wrote:
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:45 pm
Nice username :)
I'm a fan of the late great chairman.
Part of me kind of wants to create an alter-ego user called "Bernanke" and then Volcker and Bernanke can have an epic thread duking it out ;)
by pmward
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: FED Yield Curve Control
Replies: 7
Views: 288

Re: FED Yield Curve Control

They did the same thing in the WWII era by capping rates on all bonds. This is nothing new, even for us, it's just a new fancy name. With the amount of debt we have the Fed has no choice but to put a ceiling on rates. At the moment, rates are staying down on their own so they have no need of yield ...
by pmward
Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:43 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 2111
Views: 63775

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

And AZ is now officially starting to lock some things down. Ducey just announced that all bars, gyms, movie theaters, water parks, salt river tubing, are closed for 30 days and first day of school is delayed until Aug 17.
by pmward
Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New Permanent Portfolio book: "Investing Equanimity"
Replies: 36
Views: 1312

Re: New Permanent Portfolio book: "Investing Equanimity"

Yeah I ordered a different book last week, even being a "Prime" book it was still a 5 day shipping quote. I think it's still related to lockdown stuff. Amazon has been prioritizing things they see as a potential need and de-prioritizing things like books that are not a necessity.
by pmward
Sat Jun 27, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: An outsiders perspective of the politcal turmoil
Replies: 67
Views: 1035

Re: An outsiders perspective of the politcal turmoil

Looks at the title of the thread. Looks at what it devolved into.... We really are a laughing stock to the whole world right now, and here it is openly on display for all to see. This is really what America is like these days ladies and gentleman. Aren't you all just itching to move here??? Apparen...