Search found 1596 matches

by pmward
Sat Dec 05, 2020 12:24 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Does it make sense to buy long bonds now?
Replies: 55
Views: 2480

Re: Does it make sense to buy long bonds now?

Take a look at Tyler's article on bond convexity. Most people do not understand how this works: https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/ Suffice to say, the 30 year treasury could still do much better than you think in coming years if the econo...
by pmward
Sat Dec 05, 2020 11:57 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Awesome Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 497

Re: The Awesome Portfolio

I’m curious. How do you guys determine how much to allocate to the VP? I know it’s for money you are willing to lose but can you give me an idea in ratio terms relative to the PP how big a VP should be capped at? Yeah that's a tough question to answer. While I agree that using age (100-age in PP) i...
by pmward
Sat Dec 05, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Combining Vol, Economic, Trend, and Momentum Strategies
Replies: 20
Views: 306

Re: Combining Vol, Economic, Trend, and Momentum Strategies

On economic signals...I use a combination of various macro data series and an old fashioned monthly moving average. The code for the signal is: IIf(MacroEconSig >= 0, 1, IIf(MacroEconSig < 0 AND C > MA(C,6), 1, -1)); In English: If the MacroEcon signal is >=0 then = 1 If the MacroEcon signal is < 0...
by pmward
Wed Dec 02, 2020 6:01 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing
Replies: 135
Views: 931

Re: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing

I made a suggestion and I laid out my reasoning. It's ok if you disagree. But it really is frustrating when people keep making false assumptions and putting words in my mouth. Also, I'm not the only one. There were 10 people that voted "yes" and countless others that left this forum. So I think it w...
by pmward
Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:56 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing
Replies: 135
Views: 931

Re: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing

This is part of the problem. The generalization and assumptions. You don't really know that this is the reason people are upset. So you make this broad assumption and use that as a way to discount every other opinion. This happens A LOT on this forum. The fact is that many people have left because ...
by pmward
Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing
Replies: 135
Views: 931

Re: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing

This is part of the problem. The generalization and assumptions. You don't really know that this is the reason people are upset. So you make this broad assumption and use that as a way to discount every other opinion. This happens A LOT on this forum. The fact is that many people have left because ...
by pmward
Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing
Replies: 135
Views: 931

Re: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing

The politics section literally was created just a few weeks ago... up until ~Nov 12 I left the forum entirely for 6 months due to the politics getting on my nerves. Obviously, I'm thinking of leaving again. Yeah, I realize the Politics sub-forum was just created in early November. But even prior to...
by pmward
Wed Dec 02, 2020 5:33 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing
Replies: 135
Views: 931

Re: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing

"Have considered" with no time window is really not at all meaningful. "Are you considering" would be much more meaningful. Why did you phrase it the way you did? In hindsight I would have phrased it that way. It seems that the real complaint is that there are discussions going on in the political ...
by pmward
Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:35 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter
Replies: 5
Views: 130

Re: The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter

BOOM: "For as long as there has been recorded history, in almost all societies a very small percentage of the population (the “ruling classes” or “the elites”) controlled most of the wealth and the power (though those percentages have varied).[2] Naturally those who benefit from and control the syst...
by pmward
Wed Dec 02, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter
Replies: 5
Views: 130

Re: The Changing World Order: Dalio's Next Chapter

Very timely. Thanks for the share.
by pmward
Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing
Replies: 135
Views: 931

Re: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing

l82start wrote:
Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:55 pm
in a thread about sticking to investing, the trump bad - politics posting has gotten pretty thick,
Yeah I guess it probably would be a hopeless cause splitting it off to a different site.
by pmward
Wed Dec 02, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing
Replies: 135
Views: 931

Re: I Think This Forum Should Stick To Investing

The people here with PPs who don't like VP investing aren't complaining that there is a VP section. I, for one, simply turned that section off. I don't want to leave because a few folks want to talk about non PP investing. So why then have so many people left? Why have so many people voted "yes" on...