Search found 796 matches

by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 1190
Views: 24826

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

Yeah my CEO also just sent out an email earlier as well pledging no layoffs for 90 days.
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Five years out?
Replies: 6
Views: 163

Re: PP Five years out?

3% real is what I meant. Can we dare assume 3% real, averaged over the next 5 years? 2% would be ok, too. I would like to think the PP could handle negative rates and float along giving better than 0.1% on a bank savings account. Therefore 2% real would be ok, too. That 1966-1981 era may be upon us...
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: How are gold ETFs trading with normal spreads?
Replies: 3
Views: 100

Re: How are gold ETFs trading with normal spreads?

Since it doesn't appear that there is any gold available, even in 400 oz. good delivery bars, at less than about a 6% spread, how can IAU (as an example) trade at a normal spread of a few cents per share? Does that mean that they don't actually buy and sell gold when people buy and sell shares? May...
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1134
Views: 221793

Re: Stock scream room

What was it at the bottom the week of March 9th 09? Only 17. At the time of a real "once in a lifetime" bottom, nobody will want to buy LEAP options. That is precisely the time to load up on them. Sounds great. Oh, the market reverse because everyone figured out DJT was totally lying about 10 milli...
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1134
Views: 221793

Re: Stock scream room

And look at that, stocks fading now. Big reversal there.
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1134
Views: 221793

Re: Stock scream room

From Fidelity - "Buyers and sellers of LEAPS should consider the implications of Greeks.* Vega (an option price’s sensitivity for a given change in implied volatility) can be much higher for LEAPS. If you are thinking about buying LEAPS, you may want to do so when implied volatility is relatively l...
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Combining GB with spread trend
Replies: 12
Views: 393

Re: Combining GB with spread trend

How do you feel about REITs midterm? Personally, REITs feel like they are in a precarious position. Technically, yes they are in a precarious position. I do think fundamentally they are in a position to really benefit on the rebound and out perform the regular stock market. Having a 5-6% yield in a...
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1134
Views: 221793

Re: Stock scream room

If we did go lower than 1550... it would be the type of scenario where losing money on your options would be the least of your worries. Hussman's got his bug in my ear, so I'm thinking 1100. Then there's always Nenner... Dow 5000. Maybe instead of bottom picking I'll use leverage when I get a risk-...
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1134
Views: 221793

Re: Stock scream room

PM, other than the option expiring worthless, is there any other risk associated with LEAPS? Not really, so long as you sell before time decay becomes an issue. I would likely sell with about 3-6 months left for that reason and either roll them or keep profits. I mean, there is always the risk the ...
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 173692

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Zero lower bound. Stocks can go to infinity w/inflation, bonds cant. How has a Japanese version of EDV done, when 30yr rates can only move between 0% and .5% 30 year rates are NOT controlled by the Fed. They are not pinned at 0%. The market can take them much lower. The only rate the Fed sets is th...
by pmward
Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:38 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1134
Views: 221793

Re: Stock scream room

This stock market is just so argggh and I hardly own any. It's just so much foreboding about jobs and all. Yeah stocks are drunk. We are still in the bad economic news is good news regime. 6M+ unemployment claims in the last week, with the 3M+ last week we now have more unemployment claims in the l...
by pmward
Wed Apr 01, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Combining GB with spread trend
Replies: 12
Views: 393

Re: Combining GB with spread trend

Well it's official, I have capitulated on small cap value. The trend is weak and getting weaker. I don't mind doing some moonshot countertrend mean reversion bets, but not with that large of a chunk of my portfolio. I eliminated small cap value, traded some of my overweight cash for long bonds, and...