Search found 121 matches

by ppnewbie
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 16
Views: 189

Re: Coin Flip

InsuranceGuy wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:11 am
OTM options on SPY/SPX should be able to be calibrated to 50/50.
Thanks for the suggestion.
by ppnewbie
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 16
Views: 189

Re: Coin Flip

One more issue that you would need to factor in: The distribution of wins/losses are guaranteed not to be gaussian. So don't use a random number generator for your simulation. You would be surprised how quickly you can go broke if you assume a normal distribution. Model this with historical tick by ...
by ppnewbie
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Combining GB with spread trend
Replies: 12
Views: 393

Re: Combining GB with spread trend

How do you feel about REITs midterm? Personally, REITs feel like they are in a precarious position.
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 16
Views: 189

Re: Coin Flip

I need a free lunch! ;)
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 16
Views: 189

Re: Coin Flip

I was thinking that the PP is essentially a form of this strategy. LTT and Stocks are fifty percent risk on (the coin flip) and cash and gold are fifty percent risk off portion of the bet that rebalances. It's just the time period is to slow. I need to go through kbg's "inspired leveraged portfolio"...
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 16
Views: 189

Re: Coin Flip

Perfect thanks. During the quarantine, I can learn about the Kelly Criterion. Thanks!
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 16
Views: 189

Re: Coin Flip

Probably. I tried it with some code and the results were very interesting. Do you have any idea on how to try this in the real world?
by ppnewbie
Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Coin Flip
Replies: 16
Views: 189

Coin Flip

Does anyone know a volatile force in the market that is: As close to random as possible I could make a big bet on that I would double money on if the bet went my way or lose half (preferably not 100 percent) if the bet went the wrong way. The random force occurred as much as possible - preferably ar...
by ppnewbie
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Pushing your chips "all in" for the PP
Replies: 14
Views: 2070

Re: Pushing your chips "all in" for the PP

I became more open to the HBPP when I started to understand gold more and when I realized how artificially inflated and fragile the market was. Also my taxable account is nearly a hundred percent in buffet style value stocks. It was built over many years. So I figured I would have one gyroscope (the...
by ppnewbie
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The tech-dumbell portfolio
Replies: 17
Views: 507

Re: The tech-dumbell portfolio

I'm hoping my kids think I'm a genius when I pass on my hoard to them in 40 years. Right now everyone thinks I'm cookoo.
by ppnewbie
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly
Replies: 5
Views: 282

Hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly

One very big hidden feature of the Golden Butterfly is that it helps people unfamiliar with the concepts of the HBPP portfolio ease into it. As a person who has invested in stocks my entire adult life without even thinking of gold, bonds, and cash, the GB helped me make the leap. Now I can decide if...
by ppnewbie
Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:30 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Would you wear a mask?
Replies: 39
Views: 450

Re: Would you wear a mask?

Just watched Dr. Chris Martensen of Peak Prosperity daily virus update. I think It would be great if everyone wore a mask to protect other people from the mist of saliva we expel when we talk. If everyone did that I think it would help tremendously. Basically your spitting on people! Also I saw a gr...