You make a great point that interest rates were far more likely to go higher than lower 10 years ago. The only thing is I believe interest rates were negative in Europe at the time so the precedent had been set. But you were spot on the probability was very low. I would be happy to see what everyone...

The one that is the most scary is LTT’s. I am going to buy more! Also another excellent diversifier is a commodity trend follower. There are now ETF’s like DBMF in the market. However, they are expensive. Also like folks said in this thread, you need a big chunk in order for it do have a meaningful ...

You should try backtesting it. Not sure how far back you can go. I would do it but portfoliovisualizer seems to not be as good as it was and I don’t think portfoliocharts has that functionality for free anymore.

I would love to see how Bridgewater's funds have performed. I read "the fund" and dont have a good impression of their overall track record. But I also do not have any real data.

I just added to my allocation of long bonds I buy the actual bonds themselves at a full 30 years. If we dont default and / or inflate away our country, this is still an assymetric deflation hedge IMHO. I was actually tempted to buy EDV which even more volatile.

Interesting. Thanks for sharing GDE. I am trying to simplify as much as possible now that I am glide pathing to retirement. This may help.

According to a new working paper (which I haven't read yet but plan to soon), long-term Treasuries might be losing their safe-haven status, with the result that investors are rotating to short-term Treasuries and gold. More here: https://www.nber.org/papers/w34640 Definitely feels like we could be ...

I guess the only counterpoint to having too much cash is that this is really about portfolio dynamics. It dampens the volatility of the entire portfolio. So if you want the HBPP / GB low ulcer index you would need the cash component, in the specified allocation range. With regard to my proposed &qu...

The GB is also allowed me to ease into this style of investing. It’s hard to wrap your head around 1/4 gold even though 1/5 is nearly the same. The 25% cash can also feel weird. Imagine you had a portfolio of $100m. Would you really put $25m into T-bills? Seems doubtful - you'd prefer to invest tho...

The GB is also allowed me to ease into this style of investing. It’s hard to wrap your head around 1/4 gold even though 1/5 is nearly the same.

I like the golden dragon. Maybe Tyler can add that!

Long bonds scare me but I’ve kind of learned that in the Golden Butterly / GB, you are supposed to be scared. In practice for me Selling high and buying low (rebalancing) is kind of frightening. Long bonds are all I’ve been buying because everything else has gone up.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 7:06 am

Hal wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 12:14 am While waiting for some more posts, here is some light reading. Enjoy!

https://honors.libraries.psu.edu/files/ ... sions/1584

Nice!

Thanks for the post. Looking forward to reading the paper.
{ fixed quote / DS }

Average duration is 14 years.

I usually buy the full 30 year bonds to get the max duration and volatility. But to do that I have to buy individual bonds. Which is kind of a hassle. I heard about these ETFs on the Meb Faber podcast recently.

https://www.fminvest.com/etfs

Wow that was an interesting video. I have been thinking that the game would be over as soon as China backed the yuan by gold. But this video gave a very nuanced and detailed explanation (including that a gold backed yuan was unlikely.

Yup, that’s the trade off. Everything works but you are fully tracked. I hear that I phones have the ability to track your eye movements and your surroundings including who’s around you via the infrared censors. They can listen to you which I think they lost a lawsuit for this reason. And they were ...

I’ve been dreaming about disconnecting from the matrix lately and using Linux as a daily driver and getting a degoogled android phone. I want to try out Omarchy. I pretty much work in the unix terminal anyway. I have also been dipping my toes in spacemacs. I tried to install doom emacs but had trou...

I have 403b and 457b deferrals. The NON W-2 wages worksheet only allows a maximum of $30,500 (for someone over 50). But the deferral amount for both of these is 61000. I do not know if I can just change the number in line C to 61000. Here is what AI is telling me (caveat it told me something differe...

Actually I will correct my post. I was thinking about 1000 ounces and how easy it would have been collecting that over the last 25 years.

I am also thinking about buying a framework laptop.

I’ve been dreaming about disconnecting from the matrix lately and using Linux as a daily driver and getting a degoogled android phone. I want to try out Omarchy. I pretty much work in the unix terminal anyway. I have also been dipping my toes in spacemacs. I tried to install doom emacs but had troub...

It’s funny I was thinking about the 100 ounces of gold bullion a few days ago. It would have been so cheap to accumulate that over the last -25 years.

I think I am going to switch my family's phones over to US Mobile. I used them a while back and their support was excellent. Just talked their support recently because I am going move from Verizon and their support again was excellent. Plus you can switch between AT&T (Darkstar) Verizon (Warp) a...

I am a fan of Paul Belanger (BelangP youtube channel). Just got his book and so far so good. Still gettting through the basic economics and monetary policy stuff in the first few chapters but do not want to skip over it. Its a good refresher.

Just bought another slug at 4.7 ish. I missed the recent 4.9.