I guess the only counterpoint to having too much cash is that this is really about portfolio dynamics. It dampens the volatility of the entire portfolio. So if you want the HBPP / GB low ulcer index you would need the cash component, in the specified allocation range. With regard to my proposed &qu...

The GB is also allowed me to ease into this style of investing. It’s hard to wrap your head around 1/4 gold even though 1/5 is nearly the same. The 25% cash can also feel weird. Imagine you had a portfolio of $100m. Would you really put $25m into T-bills? Seems doubtful - you'd prefer to invest tho...

The GB is also allowed me to ease into this style of investing. It’s hard to wrap your head around 1/4 gold even though 1/5 is nearly the same.

I like the golden dragon. Maybe Tyler can add that!

Long bonds scare me but I’ve kind of learned that in the Golden Butterly / GB, you are supposed to be scared. In practice for me Selling high and buying low (rebalancing) is kind of frightening. Long bonds are all I’ve been buying because everything else has gone up.

dualstow wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 7:06 am

Hal wrote: ↑Mon Oct 06, 2025 12:14 am While waiting for some more posts, here is some light reading. Enjoy!

https://honors.libraries.psu.edu/files/ ... sions/1584

Nice!

Thanks for the post. Looking forward to reading the paper.
{ fixed quote / DS }

Average duration is 14 years.

I usually buy the full 30 year bonds to get the max duration and volatility. But to do that I have to buy individual bonds. Which is kind of a hassle. I heard about these ETFs on the Meb Faber podcast recently.

https://www.fminvest.com/etfs

Wow that was an interesting video. I have been thinking that the game would be over as soon as China backed the yuan by gold. But this video gave a very nuanced and detailed explanation (including that a gold backed yuan was unlikely.

Yup, that’s the trade off. Everything works but you are fully tracked. I hear that I phones have the ability to track your eye movements and your surroundings including who’s around you via the infrared censors. They can listen to you which I think they lost a lawsuit for this reason. And they were ...

I’ve been dreaming about disconnecting from the matrix lately and using Linux as a daily driver and getting a degoogled android phone. I want to try out Omarchy. I pretty much work in the unix terminal anyway. I have also been dipping my toes in spacemacs. I tried to install doom emacs but had trou...

I have 403b and 457b deferrals. The NON W-2 wages worksheet only allows a maximum of $30,500 (for someone over 50). But the deferral amount for both of these is 61000. I do not know if I can just change the number in line C to 61000. Here is what AI is telling me (caveat it told me something differe...

Actually I will correct my post. I was thinking about 1000 ounces and how easy it would have been collecting that over the last 25 years.

I am also thinking about buying a framework laptop.

I’ve been dreaming about disconnecting from the matrix lately and using Linux as a daily driver and getting a degoogled android phone. I want to try out Omarchy. I pretty much work in the unix terminal anyway. I have also been dipping my toes in spacemacs. I tried to install doom emacs but had troub...

It’s funny I was thinking about the 100 ounces of gold bullion a few days ago. It would have been so cheap to accumulate that over the last -25 years.

I think I am going to switch my family's phones over to US Mobile. I used them a while back and their support was excellent. Just talked their support recently because I am going move from Verizon and their support again was excellent. Plus you can switch between AT&T (Darkstar) Verizon (Warp) a...

I am a fan of Paul Belanger (BelangP youtube channel). Just got his book and so far so good. Still gettting through the basic economics and monetary policy stuff in the first few chapters but do not want to skip over it. Its a good refresher.

Just bought another slug at 4.7 ish. I missed the recent 4.9.

I believe the IAUM custodian is JP Morgan and the GLDM custodian is HSBC. One is US based one is not. But at this rate who knows if you can trust either one of them. I could be off but I think this was the case last time I checked.

These fake post are a nuisance. Thanks @Xan!

For my kids I do the total stock market index only with dividends reinvested. They have the beauty of time and do not have to smooth out volatility at the cost of returns. Plus I don’t want them to have to deal with the cognitive load / demand of thinking about this stuff. Set and forget for a long ...

Very sad to watch Zelensky blow it so badly. IMHO He should resign so the war can end. Also Trump was skillfully handling Zelensky’s foolishness. Then Vance caused a serious problem. Vance is a young inexperienced guy who should have stayed quiet. If he had the deal would have closed. Intentional/b...

Very sad to watch Zelensky blow it so badly. IMHO He should resign so the war can end. Also Trump was skillfully handling Zelensky’s foolishness. Then Vance caused a serious problem. Vance is a young inexperienced guy who should have stayed quiet. If he had the deal would have closed.

Treasury bond that pays you back, in dollars, the gold price after a certain number of years. Tie borrowing to gold without having to have convert to gold.

Zelensky will be at the White House today to sell his country to the US.