Search found 259 matches

by ppnewbie
Mon Mar 01, 2021 8:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
Replies: 15
Views: 578

Re: US version of a Goldsmith PP?

I wish I could backtest VCIT / VTI further.
by ppnewbie
Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:10 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Volcker
Replies: 32
Views: 1132

Re: Volcker

Here is a good one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7r7nTVmdLc

I think Mike Maloney first published this little gem a few years ago in his Hidden Secrets of Money series.
by ppnewbie
Fri Feb 26, 2021 2:30 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Volcker
Replies: 32
Views: 1132

Re: Volcker

I think even Volcker commented that there was no way rates could be raised like they were. The federal budget to service the debt would destroy the government. The market crash would potentially leave seventy million people retiring in abject poverty with an epic stock market crash (401ks and pensio...
by ppnewbie
Tue Feb 23, 2021 10:06 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Defensive Strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 836

Re: Gold Defensive Strategy

If you are interested in objectivity vs. doom porn just track the following three data series at FRED: CPI, M2, M2V When CPI actually starts heading to inflationary levels and M2V is pointed up and if M2 remains pointed up then start wringing your hands. M2V is so pathetically low right now it's ri...
by ppnewbie
Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:54 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Texas: all hat no cattle?
Replies: 29
Views: 719

Re: Texas: all hat no cattle?

As someone who works in infrastructure. This kind of thing happens. In my field its called "technical debt". There are so many things that happen on a day to day, year to year basis that black swan events always get ignored. The debt keeps growing and growing...until kaboom! It's just the way it is....
by ppnewbie
Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:12 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Conservative's Neighborly Gesture Causes Angst, "Moral Dilemma" for Leftist
Replies: 7
Views: 392

Re: Conservative's Neighborly Gesture Causes Angst, "Moral Dilemma" for Leftist

My humble take is that both sides of the media are pretty much trash at the moment. They are simply singing for their dinner and this articles success is purely measured in clicks (which translates to money). These guys will start writing about donkeys if they would get paid for it. Another interest...
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Help a Mofo Out with his PP
Replies: 16
Views: 686

Re: Help a Mofo Out with his PP

The reason I opted out of TLT was the expense ratio but with a .05 % expense ratios - It's pretty hard to beat SCHQ and VGLT. And it saves the hassle of buying and selling LTT's at auction. But a pro with an actual LTT, is that your only counter party is the US Govt. You will get your money back. Th...
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 22, 2021 12:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
Replies: 15
Views: 578

Re: US version of a Goldsmith PP?

I ran 100% wellesley, 75% wellesley, 25% IAU, and an HBPP(TLT,IAU,VTI,BIL). They were all pretty similar. I also did one with Wellington funds. None of the portfolios took a big hit during the March crash. The images show the numbers before the market downturn and at the bottom. Portfolios.jpg Welle...
by ppnewbie
Sun Feb 21, 2021 12:23 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios
Replies: 155
Views: 85675

Re: PP Inspired Leveraged Portfolios

Sorry for the annoying question here. Can I get a quick recap on the newbie 2 rules. Rebalance bands and frequency of rebalancing.
by ppnewbie
Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:35 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rhodium
Replies: 7
Views: 158

Re: Rhodium

I watched an interesting YouTube video of someone discussing trying to sell his rhodium bar.

He had a hard time finding a dealer willing to buy it but I believe he finally found one who had a big buyer lined up.
by ppnewbie
Sat Feb 20, 2021 9:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
Replies: 15
Views: 578

Re: US version of a Goldsmith PP?

That’s actually pretty close!
by ppnewbie
Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
Replies: 15
Views: 578

Re: US version of a Goldsmith PP?

Maybe - I was actually looking at that recently. Then also started looking at Wellington. I’m going to backtest Wellington / IAU against the PP. Thanks for the suggestion.
by ppnewbie
Sat Feb 20, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: US version of a Goldsmith PP?
Replies: 15
Views: 578

US version of a Goldsmith PP?

Curious if there any funds / etf’s in the Vanguard family or other major players that could be used for a US Goldsmith PP.
by ppnewbie
Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP
Replies: 45
Views: 1148

Re: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP

You can plug this allocation Tyler’s site - portfoliocharts.com and get a good idea of how it is going to perform long term. Also portfoliovisualizer.com is good for backtesting. I did a quick check and it looks pretty good. There was a 17% drawdown but I think the lowest year was a -4 percent retur...
by ppnewbie
Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP
Replies: 45
Views: 1148

Re: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP

That allocation may be painful during times of prosperity. And LTB’s losses may outpace your gains if interest rates rise due to inflation. I’m curious on how it back tests.

Sorry read your post wrong - I thought it was .33 cash not stocks.
by ppnewbie
Thu Feb 18, 2021 1:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: BelangP's 65/35 vs PP
Replies: 12
Views: 782

Re: BelangP's 65/35 vs PP

Thanks for the link Hal.
by ppnewbie
Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How does the G-Fund Work?
Replies: 23
Views: 629

Re: How does the G-Fund Work?

That sounds like magic. STT get the yield of ITT's.
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:08 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Best Silver deal
Replies: 21
Views: 605

Re: Best Silver deal

Just subscribed to this topic so I don’t miss your update again. That was a good one!
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:06 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Best Deal right now on Gold
Replies: 121
Views: 6040

Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Agree - the squeeze could take a long time but if it happens the curtains would get pulled back on the wizard of oz.
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Best Silver deal
Replies: 21
Views: 605

Re: Best Silver deal

And.....they are gone
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 66
Views: 3184

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

I agree with Kevin. I’m just letting my LTTs fade a bit - they are at about 20 percent at the moment and my PP is tilting towards a bet that we will see inflation. But if there is another major crash I think the LTT’s will help keep the ship upright.
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:18 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I think it’s time to move into crypto
Replies: 72
Views: 1089

I think it’s time to move into crypto

I have been doing a deep dive lately and the next 15 or 20 years could be a massive shock to old institutions. I am going to start getting me feet wet and continue to research.
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:11 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around
Replies: 66
Views: 3184

Re: David Rosenberg: Long Treasuries Are Still The Safest Asset Around

Going to listen the the podcast. The one thing I thing that LTT’s may be very good for is the 30x spike they will provide of we have deflationary shock.
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 15, 2021 2:07 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Renaissance Fund open to investors is laying an egg
Replies: 3
Views: 526

Re: Renaissance Fund open to investors is laying an egg

The best thing was when I talked to this person (a former Wall Street fat cat), he was crying and whining that nobody could have predicted so much QE. I kind of subtlety asked how long interest rates have been going down and how many rounds of QE have happened since 2008 but backed off because these...
by ppnewbie
Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?
Replies: 25
Views: 1316

Re: Poll: Which asset will be the winner in 2021?

Inflation - Gold and stocks.