Search found 154 matches

by welderwannabe
Sat Sep 27, 2025 10:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold tax location
Replies: 15
Views: 6845

Re: Gold tax location

OMG you almost gave me a coronary! I had to check my stock and bond ETFs, those are all Regulated Investment Companies, not Trusts! You learn something new every day here! I did own some FXF in taxable... that is a trust... I don't know if it's worth it computing the expense ratio for the shares I ...
by welderwannabe
Tue Sep 23, 2025 12:57 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: I-Bonds - buy more before 1 Nov 2025 reset?
Replies: 6
Views: 6987

Re: I-Bonds - buy more before 1 Nov 2025 reset?

Dieter wrote: Sat Sep 06, 2025 5:12 pm Seems good (least bad) for deep cash \ emergency fund
Excellent for an efund. Thats where I keep mine. IBonds are a good deal for cash.
by welderwannabe
Tue Sep 23, 2025 12:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: BLS and Jobs Report Major Revision
Replies: 3
Views: 3870

BLS and Jobs Report Major Revision

As many of you know, the BLS not only releases a headline jobs number every month, but they also revise the previous 2 months. They also then do a catch up every September to look at the Previous April-March. I previously posted some calendar year based analysis of up how often they revise up versus...
by welderwannabe
Tue Sep 23, 2025 11:52 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold tax location
Replies: 15
Views: 6845

Re: Gold tax location

ETFs in taxable are a PITA because most of them are setup as trusts, and trust expenses are not allowed to be part of your cost basis. So every year you have to track the expenses and then keep a special sheet so you can subtract them from your basis when you sell. Physical in taxable is a no brainer.
by welderwannabe
Tue Sep 23, 2025 11:47 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4003
Views: 2859884

Re: The GOLD scream room

bogleheads in shambles. Gold is dumb but wait Trump is dumb and America Bad now Seajay's a busy bee over there for those getting bored So, what would cause the Fed to bring the pain like Volker? Country isn't run by Men anymore. Yes, and nosoniceunparticularman comparing gold investing to investing...
by welderwannabe
Wed Aug 06, 2025 12:52 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Vanguard adds non-diversification warning to Total Stock Market
Replies: 48
Views: 141127

Re: Vanguard adds non-diversification warning to Total Stock Market

Blindly buying the index is well established as better than picking. There's an AI narrative bubble but it could take years to pop, and then there will be another narrative that distorts some other sector. There is intentionally putting your money in stocks and buying the index, but then there is w...
by welderwannabe
Wed Aug 06, 2025 12:46 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Vanguard adds non-diversification warning to Total Stock Market
Replies: 48
Views: 141127

Re: Vanguard adds non-diversification warning to Total Stock Market

I own that, too. Love it. But 2003-2023? Interest wasn’t that great, was it? Definitely not during the financial repression that lasted 14 years from 2008 to 2022. Getting $40 a month interest on $100,000, if even that much. But it turned out to be a form of rebalancing given that I ended up with m...
by welderwannabe
Tue Aug 05, 2025 10:49 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?
Replies: 12
Views: 10220

Re: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?

Yes, I've read the boglehead forum CPI statement before. I especially like the part where they claim to have reached out to AARP, who responds and said that they believe CPI is accurate, but doesn't accurately reflect the expenses of their constituents. Which means its not accurate, at least not for...
by welderwannabe
Mon Aug 04, 2025 2:50 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Vanguard adds non-diversification warning to Total Stock Market
Replies: 48
Views: 141127

Re: Vanguard adds non-diversification warning to Total Stock Market

I'd seriously consider moving to an equal weight S&P fund if the tax consequences were not so bad as they have a lot of trading activity to try to keep the balance. The concentrated risk in the top 10 stocks is enormous right now. People are just blindly buying the S&P every 2 weeks in their...
by welderwannabe
Mon Aug 04, 2025 10:38 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?
Replies: 12
Views: 10220

Re: BLS head fired, CPI reports will become a lie, TIPS are trash?

Someone needs to shake up the BLS. The monthly job reports have been absolute garbage for 18+ months. A total waste of time to even look at them, with the revisions far exceeding the base numbers to begin with. I review them every month, and have continued to get frustrated. As I have said in other ...
by welderwannabe
Tue Apr 29, 2025 10:08 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT vs SCHQ - total
Replies: 4
Views: 12421

Re: TLT vs SCHQ - total

Why not just buy individual issues? I try to have as little treasury mutual funds as possible.
by welderwannabe
Wed Apr 23, 2025 5:18 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Ms. Market "votes" on inflation
Replies: 4
Views: 13536

Re: Ms. Market "votes" on inflation

Agreed. I took the losses back in 2023. Its largely just moved sideways since then, in fact rates are lower than the high back in october of 2023, where the 30 year closed at around 5.1%. I didn't sell then, I can hold on for longer. However you should all pray I eventually give up and sell, as that...
by welderwannabe
Tue Apr 22, 2025 1:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Not yet coming here? [to the Forum]
Replies: 28
Views: 19850

Re: Not yet coming here? [to the Forum]

Yah its been hard lately being in LTT's for sure.
by welderwannabe
Fri Apr 18, 2025 9:44 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4003
Views: 2859884

Re: The GOLD scream room

Golds also more in vogue now. When your shoe-shine boy starts wearing gold rings/necklaces and chats about gold being so great - the up arrow might have peaked, turn and start a down-run. Stocks PE down from recent 26 to half of that. You must travel in different circles. All I hear about is stocks...
by welderwannabe
Fri Mar 28, 2025 10:58 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Texas Bullion Depository is the Best Way to Protect Your Gold
Replies: 20
Views: 35232

Re: Texas Bullion Depository is the Best Way to Protect Your Gold

CNT Depository in Bridgewater, MA works well for people that live in new england. Their rates start at .67% for one coin and the rate lowers as assets increase. I have personal experience with them as a customer...Of course. unfortunately all my gold was recently lost in a tragic boating accident th...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 12:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Texas introduces GAULT legislation
Replies: 14
Views: 33252

Re: Texas introduces GAULT legislation

What I really want to know is this... if gold & silver in Texas become legal tender (I live in Houston), will that generate a legal case where the way gold is taxed Federally, as a Collectible, is challenged? That's probably a major intent of the legislation. How can we become part of the class...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 11:52 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 91587

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

July 2018: $183,100 January 2022: $131,500 Ouch, I dont know what to tell you there. Even according to FRED govt statistics: Q2 of 2018 median home selling price was $315,000 Q3 of 2024 median home selling price was $420,400 That is a 33% increase in home prices. Porfolio visualizer. Q3 of 2018 $31...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 11:33 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 91587

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Kevin K. wrote: Sat Nov 30, 2024 10:07 am And it's not like it isn't subject to a ton of scrutiny by owners of TIPS bonds and managers of TIPS funds.
Nothing has more scrutiny than the monthly jobs reports, and the revisions in that thing are mind blowing. CPI is brought to you by the guys that do that.
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 11:17 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 91587

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

While I don't entirely disagree with your sentiments the dates you chose to compare TIPS and gold are arbitrary and obviously chosen to favor your argument for gold and against TIPS. I mean if we're going to just choose arbitrary dates to base our arguments on, here's a comparison of short-TIPS (VT...
by welderwannabe
Sat Nov 30, 2024 6:32 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 91587

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Was there any time period when one held TIPS were held to maturity that you did not get what was promised? A rate of return plus the inflation during that period? Yes, the entire time. The 'inflation' metric the government has invented and constantly changes, with some changes major, does not measu...
by welderwannabe
Fri Nov 29, 2024 2:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 91587

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

William Bernstein is one among many who have shown that gold is not an effective inflation hedge. It is a severe circumstances hedge. Well Bill Bernstein is a huge huge huge fan of TIPS. Ive heard him speak about it several times. Regardless, look over the years since TIPS were out. Pick reasonable...
by welderwannabe
Fri Nov 29, 2024 10:34 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 91587

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

I do agree with adjusting the ratios of the assets. I find it unlikely that 25/25/25/25 just happened to be the perfect ratio for everything. Its that way for simplicity. Thats why I do 60/20/20. As for TIPS vs Gold, suggest people perform backtesting gold vs TIPS since TIPS have been available and ...
by welderwannabe
Fri Nov 29, 2024 7:28 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 91587

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Does anyone have any sage words of advice - are things going to get better for LTT? Keep DCA'ing and hang in there? Retool my PP? What? Stay the course. Maybe trim the position, but I wouldn't jump out. The most dangerous sentence in investing is 'This time its different'. The stock market will cra...
by welderwannabe
Fri Nov 29, 2024 7:23 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 91587

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Doesn't make any sense to me to not trust TIPS but trust nominal Treasuries, given that they are issued by the same entity. Sure it does. They both have a non zero default risk, sure, but Nominal Treasurys are a fixed rate, locked in for the life of the instrument. Tips are adjusted up and down bas...
by welderwannabe
Thu Nov 28, 2024 6:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"
Replies: 77
Views: 91587

Re: "U.S. Treasuries not the safe bet they once were"

Same with me, I don't enjoy owning LTTs, but I continue to do so. 20%. Not sure I trust tips, in fact I know I don't. The CPI they are indexed against is subject to too much manipulation. They continually change its definition and miraculously it always results in lower inflation output. Its also pu...