Search found 104 matches

by welderwannabe
Tue Dec 05, 2023 9:25 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating
Replies: 4
Views: 6043

Re: Why This Vanguard Inflation Fighter Gets a High Rating

Stated return for TIPS and TIPS funds is usually in real terms, not nominal.
by welderwannabe
Tue Dec 05, 2023 4:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: APMEX
Replies: 11
Views: 15094

Re: APMEX

pmbug wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2023 3:16 pm

Looks like Apmex is quoting the Ask price and Monument/Kitco are quoting the Bid price. There is a ~$10 spread at the moment.
Whenever I check kitco there is $1 diff between bid/ask spread. I just checked now, bid 2018.8, ask 2019.8.
by welderwannabe
Tue Dec 05, 2023 2:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: APMEX
Replies: 11
Views: 15094

APMEX

We all know APMEX's premiums have been out of sight last few years. I have gotten them to price match Gold, but when they do I have discovered their spot price is often $10-$15 higher than competitors. For example, right now APMEX spot price is showing $2033.60. Monument metals is $2022.00, and Kitc...
by welderwannabe
Thu Nov 23, 2023 1:49 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 69197

Re: TLT cracks $90

I have no idea whether the long term bond beat down is over, but I'm staying the course and I keep buying. Feels like putting money down the drain... For me, I have no doubt the Fed will cut rates the second the economy starts to show cracks. When will that be? No idea, but I know they can't help th...
by welderwannabe
Sun Oct 29, 2023 7:45 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Best Gold Summary Ever
Replies: 4
Views: 3059

Re: Best Gold Summary Ever

Good read, thanks for sharing. Especially interesting was whether gold was for inflation (conclusion was that it wasn't). Also of note was that gold was not correlated with other traditional assets, so my takeaway there is that it may be better for smoothing out a portfolio than for inflation insura...
by welderwannabe
Tue Sep 12, 2023 10:24 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Long Treasuries Top Bond Market Returns This Year
Replies: 7
Views: 5882

Re: Long Treasuries Top Bond Market Returns This Year

Half the market thinks LTT's are overpriced and the other half thinks they are underpriced. The only way they are overpriced is if you think the Fed won't cut rates in the next 2-5 years. Very hard to get off the low interest rate crack, its too addictive to the politicians who love increasing asse...
by welderwannabe
Tue Sep 12, 2023 10:22 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100308

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

Exactly. Our Fed got aggressive with rate increases quicker than the rest of the world (in fact we are still far ahead of most) and that provided strength to the dollar relative to other currencies. This kept gold muted as measured against USD. That all said, I am more than happy with Gold's perform...
by welderwannabe
Tue Sep 12, 2023 10:19 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer
Replies: 19
Views: 6844

Re: Physical + Bullionvault + Paxos combo primer

I remember a foolish poster once said that you had to discount all of the 1970's performance for gold because gold wasn't "truly free floating" until the 1980s. No one called him out on it despite that being the dumbest statement anyone has ever made about investing. Like, conveniently he decides t...
by welderwannabe
Mon May 29, 2023 2:17 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657164

Re: The GOLD scream room

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 3:22 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 2:08 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 11:58 am
2060 futures
2050+ spot price (AJPM)
1PM EST
For the first time in a long while, gold is the best-performing asset YTD in the PP. It's even beating LASAGNE! ;)
THIS PLEASES ME
Except I am so out of balance I'm unable to buy gold at the moment...buying gold is what pleases me. Haha.
by welderwannabe
Mon Apr 03, 2023 7:57 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: New ETFs for cash/bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 3110

Re: New ETFs for cash/bonds

in this case duration overwhelms any expenses difference Duration and ER are different conversations. When rates were rising SCHQ performed better. I've always found TLT to be expensive, but most of those original ETFs that have been around for years and years are expensive. TLT has something like ...
by welderwannabe
Thu Mar 30, 2023 11:19 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Glint Pay
Replies: 8
Views: 1811

Re: Glint Pay

They went bankrupt 3-4 years ago and everyone's accounts were frozen. They are back after being recapitalized. The good news is that no one lost any gold, so it seems their allocated gold model was legit. One always wonders until its tested. https://www.kitco.com/news/2019-09-25/Glint-Pay-customer-f...
by welderwannabe
Wed Mar 29, 2023 9:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I'M OUT!
Replies: 64
Views: 60116

Re: I'M OUT!

joypog wrote:
Wed Mar 29, 2023 12:50 am
I’d recommend a purple state that doesn’t have a long term single party rule as a better landing spot, though there aren’t many of those….
Nor do they usually stay that way for long.
by welderwannabe
Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:41 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Single-bond ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 7845

Re: Single-bond ETFs

XHLF should fix the duration issue. They keep a portfolio of treasuries that targets a 6 month duration. And for only .03 I have read several articles that say on the run treasuries (or on the run treasury ETFs like TBIL) underperform a portfolio of treasuries targeting the same duration: https://f...
by welderwannabe
Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:33 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 36846

Re: When will indexing blow up?

For indexing to fail we have to assume that there won't be a decent slug of people who think they are smarter than others and can make more money by investing in individual stocks. With human nature the way it is, I don't think that will ever happen...and if by some chance it somehow starts to, then...
by welderwannabe
Fri Mar 03, 2023 9:46 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?
Replies: 17
Views: 6230

Re: Why do they say gold isn't a hedge against inflation?

When I look at my portfolio, my gold has outperformed everything else during the period inflation has been crazy. I'd say its doing just fine.
by welderwannabe
Tue Feb 28, 2023 8:07 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Single-bond ETFs
Replies: 13
Views: 7845

Re: Single-bond ETFs

I have read the website and several articles on these single bond ETFs. I do not get the advantage of owning an ETF that trades into the current 3 month Treasury each month as opposed to just a generic Treasury ETF like SGOV or XHLF that holds a variety of 3-6 month treasuries at much lower expense...
by welderwannabe
Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:57 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk
Replies: 23
Views: 11908

Re: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk

Definitely agree with all you have to say but isn't it somewhat similar to the common saying about when one thinks the stock prices are way too high but that the stock market does not care what you think. Well the two are closely related IMHO. When rates are uber low for long, and the govt prints e...
by welderwannabe
Sat Feb 25, 2023 11:08 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk
Replies: 23
Views: 11908

Re: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk

For how years (decades) has that been said? Fair, but debt as a percent of GDP is 3X what it was not too long ago. Its really exploded in the last few years. There has to be an upper limit, just no one knows what it is. Some would argue we've already hit and thats a reason why inflation has been so...
by welderwannabe
Sat Feb 25, 2023 7:46 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Treasury bond pricing
Replies: 5
Views: 2080

Re: Treasury bond pricing

OK, thanks, makes sense. I have no idea why they do it that way, considering the percent and dollar amounts really equate to the same, but I'm sure there is a good reason. I've never used Treasury Direct and was not aware they would sell in $100 increments. Brokerages sell secondary market and auct...
by welderwannabe
Fri Feb 24, 2023 11:15 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk
Replies: 23
Views: 11908

Re: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk

Which, if the effect is to just trigger more inflation, could put that 5 percent return in a very different light. If this is what it takes to stir interest in treasuries, it seems to me that there's a different sort of risk we ought to be talking about. That said, I bought another 10K last week. Y...
by welderwannabe
Mon Feb 20, 2023 8:38 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk
Replies: 23
Views: 11908

Re: Treasury Bills Offer Stock-Like 5% to Take Fed, Debt-Limit Risk

The Fed owns 40% of all the outstanding Treasurys already. They can just crank up purchases if foreigners decide they don't want it.

They will keep the printing presses rolling.
by welderwannabe
Fri Feb 10, 2023 3:56 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 41242

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

Nothing wrong with the above, except I'd add that ibonds are tax deferred which also adds to their benefits.
by welderwannabe
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:10 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Direct Indexing
Replies: 6
Views: 2954

Re: Direct Indexing

Im also not sure theyve figure out the transfer process from one brokerage to another. The stocks would transfer fine, sure, but its just gonna look like a pile of stocks to the receiving broker. Direct indexing is really a method to keep you from being able to churn out to another broker, or at lea...
by welderwannabe
Tue Jan 17, 2023 10:14 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657164

Re: The GOLD scream room

Mark Leavy wrote:
Sun Jan 01, 2023 10:30 pm
Or, you could only do business with trustworthy people.
Trustworthy people are trustworthy until they are not.

Ive got a Sigma on order.
by welderwannabe
Fri Jan 06, 2023 12:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Silver
Replies: 40
Views: 9213

Re: Silver

SilentMajority wrote:
Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:32 am
Ok they mention the sunshine mint in D's article and they're calling them "planchets". I've heard that term a lot, fancy.
Im going with "overpriced metallic circles", AKA OPMC.