Search found 39 matches

by mdwilson1991
Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:55 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140847

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

If you sell your LTT because you don't envision a future for them, do you also sell stocks and gold when they are declining and apparently don't have a future? That behavior has pretty much nothing to do with the whole idea of the PP. I'm not saying that you are wrong, or that the PP will actually "...
by mdwilson1991
Wed Mar 03, 2021 11:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP
Replies: 35
Views: 11395

Re: 33,3 + 33,3 +33,3 = USPP

Your modification to the PP might turn out to be the greatest thing ever. Or not. The thing to remember is, the idea behind the PP is that you don't know and you CAN'T know, so hold the PP proportions of all those assets. So no matter which economic condition prevails, you should have something that...
by mdwilson1991
Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Funds or etfs for Stocks
Replies: 8
Views: 3489

Re: Funds or etfs for Stocks

Consider also that ETFs have bid/ask spreads and may sell at a premium or discount to to the value of the underlying assets. And possibly, you might pay to make the trades to sell your funds and buy ETFs.

So, it's not as straightforward as just some tax savings.
by mdwilson1991
Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown
Replies: 9
Views: 4320

Re: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown

You grossly undersell the analysis that was performed in the series. If one is interested in ultra simplicity then 25x4 is as easy as it gets. But I think most impartial observers would say the PP 25x4 allocation is anything but truly neutral as to risk and as to properly weighting economic conditi...
by mdwilson1991
Sun Jun 21, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown
Replies: 9
Views: 4320

Re: Permanent Portfolio Shakedown

I think it is important to note that what the author of the linked post has proposed is in no way a version of the PP. He has addressed what he views as the flaws of the PP by introducing various modeling techniques which attempt to improve performance by predicting what the next periods results wil...
by mdwilson1991
Wed May 06, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The tech-dumbell portfolio
Replies: 69
Views: 28456

Re: The tech-dumbell portfolio

I don't guess it matters anymore, but really this belongs in the Vp forum. It is not the PP.
by mdwilson1991
Mon Apr 27, 2020 9:40 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP vs 60/40 Shares/Gold
Replies: 6
Views: 3467

Re: PP vs 60/40 Shares/Gold

You can construct lots of allocations that have better yield over some period with less volatility than the PP. However, the recommended 60/40 allocation doesn't contain the long bonds or cash component of the PP. So, when economic conditions favor long bonds or cash over stocks or gold, that alloca...
by mdwilson1991
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Raoul Pal "The Unfolding"
Replies: 9
Views: 4202

Re: Raoul Pal "The Unfolding"

120 pages of pure joy. :(

Seriously though, thanks for posting, it is interesting.
by mdwilson1991
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
Replies: 24
Views: 12550

Re: Help me get over my fear of LTTs

Hi folks, I've been reading here a while, read Best Laid Plans, Rowland's book. I've been trying to pull the trigger and move to the PP or a variation, like GB. I can't seem to get past my fear (perhaps irrational ) of the long term treasuries. I know stocks can crash and stay there for ages. But s...
by mdwilson1991
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:43 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: How do you invest the gold portion?
Replies: 42
Views: 32124

Re: How do you invest the gold portion?

In ALL the posts I have read in this Forum now (at least 1,000's) these two posts are the only two I've seen make reference to Market On Close (MOC) order. Two totally opposite opinions here....any others want to chime in? Vinny I can only give my point of view on the two opposite opinions - I had ...
by mdwilson1991
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help
Replies: 15
Views: 7598

Re: New Member and Permanent Portfolio Novice. Asking for help

The whole thing above was great! Spelling it all out both concisely yet with detail. However, for we literalists out here, can you more precisely define "every so often"? Certainly Sophie can reply with own answer to what she meant, but my interpretation - - - We can't forget that a foundation of t...
by mdwilson1991
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Dawg Pound
Replies: 290
Views: 120155

Re: Dawg Pound

Thanks! I truly believe that "A house is not a home without a pug.". My soul is at peace again, even though the void left by the last one will never be completely filled. I have never owned a pug, and only known a few through the years. I have no idea what they are like to own as a pet, but they ab...
by mdwilson1991
Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Computer games - then & now
Replies: 19
Views: 10383

Re: Computer games - then & now

Choplifter. Battle Zone. Anything Infocom. Wow those were some good ones. I'll add Dr J and Larry Bird Go One On One, Archon, Red Baron, Pole Position, Karate Champ, Pirates, Defender of the Crown, Qbert...probably a zillion others. The good old Commodore 64... The arcade near my high school gave ou...
by mdwilson1991
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories
Replies: 143
Views: 42787

Re: Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories

There must be thousands of researchers examining this virus. Could some of them tell if it was engineered? Yes, they can tell if was engineered. It wasn't. Check the article I posted earlier in this thread. (We don't seem to have post numbers here, or I would just say look at post #...) https://www...
by mdwilson1991
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: How are gold ETFs trading with normal spreads?
Replies: 3
Views: 1585

Re: How are gold ETFs trading with normal spreads?

Since it doesn't appear that there is any gold available, even in 400 oz. good delivery bars, at less than about a 6% spread, how can IAU (as an example) trade at a normal spread of a few cents per share? Does that mean that they don't actually buy and sell gold when people buy and sell shares? May...
by mdwilson1991
Thu Apr 02, 2020 1:33 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories
Replies: 143
Views: 42787

Re: Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories

There must be thousands of researchers examining this virus. Could some of them tell if it was engineered? Yes, they can tell if was engineered. It wasn't. Check the article I posted earlier in this thread. (We don't seem to have post numbers here, or I would just say look at post #...) https://www...
by mdwilson1991
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories
Replies: 143
Views: 42787

Re: Coronavirus Conspiracy Theories

I posted this elsewhere. Rather than provide merit to nonsense conspiracy theories, we could consider this: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200317175442.htm Science done by people who do it for a living every day, and actually understand things like virology, immunology, microbiology, ...
by mdwilson1991
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1777948

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

In retrospect, "contrived" was a poor choice of words. I don't deny that hospitals are overwhelmed, but I do question what brought us to this point and what interests were being advanced by having a nation on lock-down and the world economy at a virtual standstill. So perhaps the term "engineered c...
by mdwilson1991
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1777948

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

"Reported US coronavirus cases and deaths via @CNN : 4 weeks ago: 60 cases, 0 deaths 3 weeks ago: 227 cases, 12 deaths 2 weeks ago: 1,636 cases, 41 deaths 1 week ago: 13,229 cases, 195 deaths Right now: 82,135 cases, 1,195 deaths" Vinny I'm sorry but your numbers are wrong. The President said, a mo...
by mdwilson1991
Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is Trump doing a good job?
Replies: 840
Views: 251076

Re: Is Trump doing a good job?

vnatale wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:52 pm
Fake Trump Explains How He Will Bring The Economy Back To Life On Easter

https://crooksandliars.com/2020/03/fake ... will-bring
That's some funny shite right there.
by mdwilson1991
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I pulled the trigger
Replies: 8
Views: 3681

Re: I pulled the trigger

So that must have been the major source of my equity losses? It was bad enough looking at the total losses that I did not examine each component's performance. Bot of my handful of Vanguard Index funds, two of them are the Value and Small Cap Value funds. Vinny I have no doubt that your SCV is gett...
by mdwilson1991
Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?
Replies: 60
Views: 17099

Re: Is Denninger right about the coronavirus?

Interesting post from Denninger this morning. I don't know enough to agree or disagree, but it's an interesting hypothesis about COVID-19 being an attenuated virus from an unfinished vaccine for SARS or MERS. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?singlepost=3524114 Of course it has that unmistakable "...
by mdwilson1991
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:10 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 645339

Re: Stock scream room

Is this the scream room?

SMALL CAP VALUE SMALL CAP VALUE ARRRRRRGH @#$@%@#$@#$ WTF
by mdwilson1991
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: I pulled the trigger
Replies: 8
Views: 3681

Re: I pulled the trigger

So at the moment I am fairly pleased about having done this switch to a GB-ish portfolio. As of today, I am down 5.29% on the year, and basically I made the switch right at the start of the year. If I had stuck with my old portfolio, I would be down something like 20-25%. And I would be WAY more ups...
by mdwilson1991
Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: How do you invest the gold portion?
Replies: 42
Views: 32124

Re: How do you invest the gold portion?

[... I'm not sure what the alternatives are, though... you still have to trade. I believe, according to that guy and some others I have seen, limit orders are the way to go. That doesn't guarantee NAV but it guarantees you get the price you want ( I think!) But I am hardly an authority on this.