how far will it go? all because the dollar is losing value. It looks like this happened in 2011, but gold pulled back hard

ochotona wrote: ↑Thu Apr 17, 2025 6:45 am This thing is going to correct, maybe by a lot, it can't be going up like an arrow.

HB said "During normal times, a crisis is a good for the dollar. But if inflation is high, then a crisis is good for gold. "

18% EDV (Vanguard extended duration treasury) is equivalent to 25% TLT in the PP. Also, EDV has a much longer average duration of 24 years. And only 0.05% expense ratio. If you use the 18% of EDV, it frees up 7% to use in something else. I liked to use 2% in Bitcoin and then another 5% in SGOV, for ...

dualstow wrote: ↑Thu Apr 03, 2025 7:17 am Wow, look at stock futures this morning

I have a permanent portfolio

I really like XHLF, 6 month tbil duration 0.03% ER

I'm not even trying to cherry pick data but it looks like a 100% long bond portfolio outperforms the PP from 1995 to 2021ish. Surprising. Perhaps treasuries underperforming is actually infrequent on longer time scales.

Any thoughts on tilting the PP to 15% LTT and 35% cash/tbills? If deflation is THAT uncommon, then tilting seems appropriate while keeping the core philosophy intact

The PP forces you to buy the under performing asset so it makes sense to buy LTTs. But....its not easy

Let's acknowledge for moment that Gold is indeed a physical item that can be exchanged for cash. With that in mind, other physical items could serve the same role. HB said in his book he wasn't a fan of real estate because you can't sell just the deck, and a house requires upkeep. But let's brainsto...

in case it wasn't shared, check out ticker "XONE" - 0.3% expense ratio

"One Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index which contains U.S. Treasury securities that have an average duration of approximately 1 year."

Looks like its working to me

I was just listening to the man again. I don't give a shit what the economy does

i love my treasuries. they won't let me down

HB said gold would move during inflation. If we take his word at face value, we can conclude we've only had mild inflation these past 2 years despite what the CPI and other figures indicate.

I'm trying to wrap my head around something. If rising rates are deflationary, when do bonds benefit from it? Because we all just witnessed bonds get slaughtered amidst the prospect of rising rates.

At the end of the day HB was a libertarian and I think he recommended USD only because it was the reserve currency. But in his book he also did say to keep some cash outside of the US...swiss francs for example. I wonder if, metaphorically, BTC fits that bill....no pun intended

I think HB was deeply mistrusting of the government. Enough so that he would have been an advocate for owning some Bitcoin. Perhaps in the VP, if not the PP.

Harry Browne was confident that cash would only do well during periods of "tight money". Makes sense we are in this environment as the FED is doing exactly that by raising rates and selling assets. But HB also said "tight money" is temporary and eventually inflation/deflation wil...

Bonds are looking cheap relative to stocks:

Today VOO / TLT = 3.36
Last year VOO / TLT = 2.78
2 years ago VOO / TLT = 1.64

You can get over 3 tlts for the price of one VOO!!!

Mr. Gundlach consistently touting the PP: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECe4xLSkvZo&t=16m7s

just look at DXY. Of all the currencies, the dollar is what people want right now. Even Bitcoin has been flat while the dollar is rallying

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:03 pm I still have some TLT that I am writing calls on

I use EDV instead of TLT and I've been tempted multiple times to sell calls on it but I never do. Why? Because I know as soon as a sell a call, some massive event will happen and TLT/EDV will skyrocket and I'll be selling for a pittance

jalanlong wrote: ↑Wed Mar 02, 2022 11:28 am Does anyone worry about how uneven the sector coverage is in most US Market ETFs?

Nope, the S&P 500 is self-healing. Failing companies create space for others