Search found 1422 matches

by Hal
Sun Oct 19, 2025 5:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio at Record Levels — Correction Ahead? ⚠️
Replies: 3
Views: 320

Re: Permanent Portfolio at Record Levels — Correction Ahead? ⚠️

Of course, markets can stay irrational longer than expected, and it’s possible the rally continues well into next year. But from a risk management perspective, this could be a good moment to review allocations and expectations. 👉 What do you think? Is this just the beginning of a longer bullish cyc...
by Hal
Thu Oct 16, 2025 8:52 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 4047
Views: 2916496

Re: The GOLD scream room

Australia gets a mention on ZeroHedge 8)

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-meta ... sical-gold

Shades of the 1970's.....
by Hal
Tue Oct 14, 2025 2:26 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Long-Term Bond Selection for an International Permanent Portfolio (EU Investor)
Replies: 7
Views: 681

Re: Long-Term Bond Selection for an International Permanent Portfolio (EU Investor)

Since I pay 25% tax on capital gains, switching to the Vanguard product no longer makes financial sense for me. One major advantage, though, is that mixed funds are treated favorably under German tax law – which would actually give me a small tax benefit in the low triple-digit range per year. What...
by Hal
Mon Oct 13, 2025 12:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Long-Term Bond Selection for an International Permanent Portfolio (EU Investor)
Replies: 7
Views: 681

Re: Long-Term Bond Selection for an International Permanent Portfolio (EU Investor)

Alternatively, I have been thinking about replacing the LT and Cash components with a 50% allocation to global government bonds (7–10 year maturity) – a suitable UCITS solution exists. I do similar in Australia. Use a 30/70 Vanguard Share/Bond ETF called VDCO. So the total portfolio is 25%Gold 75%V...
by Hal
Mon Oct 06, 2025 12:14 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 137
Views: 70525

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

While waiting for some more posts, here is some light reading. Enjoy!

https://honors.libraries.psu.edu/files/ ... sions/1584
by Hal
Sun Oct 05, 2025 8:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1346
Views: 1042326

YouTube Junkie

Nerd out! ;D

by Hal
Sat Oct 04, 2025 4:33 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paul Belanger Book Evidence Based Wealth
Replies: 12
Views: 8511

Re: Paul Belanger Book Evidence Based Wealth

Happened to watch a BelangP video today. Below is a good summary of his approach.
But.... would not have wanted to be using his methodology in Japan :o

by Hal
Wed Sep 24, 2025 12:51 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold tax location
Replies: 15
Views: 9439

Re: Gold tax location

Haven't listened to this, but Monetary Metals talks are usually good...
(There's a link in there to an Original tax video as well)
https://www.monetary-metals.com/insight ... and-taxes/
by Hal
Sun Sep 21, 2025 8:12 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Paul Belanger Book Evidence Based Wealth
Replies: 12
Views: 8511

Re: Paul Belanger Book Evidence Based Wealth

Agree, it was an interesting read. My opinion fwiw, 1. If you are going to live off dividends and pass your portfolio down to your heirs, its a good approach 2. If you have no heirs and plan to spend down your portfolio, then the Permanent Portfolio is a good approach https://www.reddit.com/r/divide...
by Hal
Wed Sep 17, 2025 1:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Society’s veneer has gotten thinner
Replies: 13
Views: 4986

Re: Society’s veneer has gotten thinner

I didn't watch the video but I have watched one previously by him. His whole deal is that civil war and/or collapse are coming. Skip to the 51 min mark for the summary. 1. Decline of democracy and freedom 2. Economic collapse 3. Immigration 4. Civil War between societal groups 5. "Stupid"...
by Hal
Tue Sep 16, 2025 11:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Society’s veneer has gotten thinner
Replies: 13
Views: 4986

Re: Society’s veneer has gotten thinner

FWIW: Found this lecture to High School Students quite interesting =>

From what I gather the teacher is either from or in Canada. If that's the standard of Canadian teachers :o
by Hal
Wed Sep 10, 2025 4:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 137
Views: 70525

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

My takeaways: Due to the fact that taxes are levied against nominal gains, the government scoops up most of the wealth generated through compounding. Maxing out Roth contributions is still worthwhile. Don't contribute to 401k past company match. Buy gold with the rest Thoughts? Thoughts?..... Think...
by Hal
Tue Sep 09, 2025 4:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Quiet board - time to buy?
Replies: 137
Views: 70525

Re: Quiet board - time to buy?

Had a look at your photos Mathjak.

Happy you are both OK. That was a close call !
by Hal
Wed Aug 20, 2025 4:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 3158
Views: 2605733

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Mountaineer wrote: Wed Aug 20, 2025 6:49 am I remember when you were the Hal in 2001. Guess I’m old too!
…Your friend, Dave

🤣🤣🤣
…Mountaineer
;D ;D ;D
You figured out I am an AI bot!!
by Hal
Tue Aug 19, 2025 9:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 3158
Views: 2605733

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

It's good to see that some of the forum members are still alive. It had been 6 days of darkness. How about the rest of you? Are you still on the bright side of the grass? ;) Hi Mountaineer, All good "down under". Spring will be here in a week so some more travel is likely. Still quite imp...
by Hal
Sat Aug 09, 2025 4:35 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interesting talk on how banking operates
Replies: 1
Views: 4921

Interesting talk on how banking operates

Enjoy!

Richard Werner explains concept and Alasdair Macleod explains in detail.
(and no, it's not an end of the world talk and we shall all be eating dogfood ;) )



by Hal
Wed Jul 02, 2025 5:15 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 3158
Views: 2605733

Re: What Size TV Do You Guys Have?

Smith1776 wrote: Tue Jul 01, 2025 8:51 pm What size TV are you guys rocking at home? Was it a good purchase?
Heh Heh, Had to reply. Gave this to a friend so he could listen to his record collection. Was my parents TV & Radiogram! Still working in 2025 8)

https://collections.museumsvictoria.com.au/items/400989
by Hal
Sun Jun 29, 2025 7:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 38849

Re: Difference Between Holding Long-Term Bonds Directly vs. Through an ETF

Way back, if my memory is correct, there was a British forum member called Clive. I believe he advocated holding a 50% long term bond allocation in a bond ladder. Each year a bond would mature and you would purchase another 30 year bond. It would appear that ensured you never sold a bond at a loss a...
by Hal
Fri Jun 27, 2025 2:55 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us
Replies: 3158
Views: 2605733

Re: Daily "Check In" Thread For Us

Have also been watching this series. Very professional. Suggest watching the Malaya series from the beginning.

https://www.youtube.com/@theprinciplesofwar/videos
by Hal
Thu Jun 26, 2025 1:47 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Brent Johnson praises Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 31388

Re: Brent Johnson praises Permanent Portfolio

Reminds me more of Marc Fabers portfolio.... <snip> Earlier, we saw that he advised investors to allocate their portfolios with equal percentages in various asset classes like the equity market, the bond market (BND), real estate, and precious metals (GLD) (RING). https://marketrealist.com/2017/08/w...
by Hal
Sat May 24, 2025 6:12 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 📊 Current Portfolio Allocation – Almost a Permanent Portfolio (EU-PP-HB ) 💼
Replies: 6
Views: 7328

Re: 📊 Current Portfolio Allocation – Almost a Permanent Portfolio (EU-PP-HB ) 💼

Let HB answer your queries :D
Spent hours listening to these on a long interstate trip couple of days ago. Highly recommended.

https://www.youtube.com/@harrybrownearchives5823/videos
by Hal
Wed May 14, 2025 4:48 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 💸 Is Rebalancing the Permanent Portfolio Costing You More Than You Think? 🤔
Replies: 11
Views: 4830

Re: 💸 Is Rebalancing the Permanent Portfolio Costing You More Than You Think? 🤔

🔍 I’d really like to hear how others using the Permanent Portfolio are handling this. Do you adjust your rebalancing strategy to reduce the tax hit? 📬 Looking forward to hearing your thoughts. 1. Funds are in a Superannuation Account (Retirement Savings Plan) 2. Use a Vanguard Ready Made ETF (VDCO)...
by Hal
Wed May 07, 2025 2:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If the EURO 💶 collapses 🤯
Replies: 12
Views: 5935

Re: If the EURO 💶 collapses 🤯

I suspect you will find this interview from a few years back helpful... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4_U6bS-cU4 From my perspective, and it is just my opinion, I see Gold as capital and the other three PP holdings as investments. The key point being, there is always a risk the value of your inve...
by Hal
Tue Apr 29, 2025 9:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is it time to make the PP and GB less U.S.-centric?
Replies: 6
Views: 4077

Re: Is it time to make the PP and GB less U.S.-centric?

Just out of curiosity, back tested US PP against an international version. (VASIX/GLD)
Note that Gold/Shares/Cash&Bonds are 17%/17%/66% in both versions so allocations match (still within PP rebalance bands)

Seems similar for last 10 years using free version of Portfolio Visualiser.