Search found 130 matches

by k9
Sat Oct 10, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ETF Fraud - Documents to proove
Replies: 18
Views: 9476

Re: ETF Fraud - Documents to proove

Hey I'vre just learned a little more about this topic. Here in Europe (so this is for you, Frugal), all assets are stored at a central provider (Clearstream, Euroclear to name a few if you want to learn more about them). Assets are stored under your name but managed, in fine, by these providers. It ...
by k9
Thu Oct 08, 2015 1:27 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Elio Motors -- Emasculating or Genius?
Replies: 39
Views: 14406

Re: Elio Motors -- Emasculating or Genius?

Ah America ::) French citizen here. There's a saying there that your Hummers and all other cars are a sign you have something to compensate for. Would you say a man like Putin is emasculated or that he doesn't care about his virile image ? http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41891000/jpg/_41891190...
by k9
Thu Oct 08, 2015 8:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio Jr.
Replies: 15
Views: 5984

Re: The Permanent Portfolio Jr.

According to this source https://books.google.fr/books?id=OgUEAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA36&lpg=PA36&dq=armadillo+strategy&source=bl&ots=sokArTiQO7&sig=-1mg_ljsynyQ4jf9rYc0eAJBtbQ&hl=fr&sa=X&ved=0CF8Q6AEwC2oVChMI5oXF2f-yyAIVwaEUCh0PtAC_#v=onepage&q=armadillo%20strategy&f=false Young's Armadillo strategy is 20% t...
by k9
Sat Oct 25, 2014 10:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP or Buy a new House
Replies: 49
Views: 23067

Re: PP or Buy a new House

You have, say, 200K in a PP and want to buy a 100K house. Take it the other way : if you already had your 100K house paid off and a 100K PP, would you take a 100K mortgage and invest that money in your PP ? If not, maybe you should avoid a mortgage. Because, technically, it's the very same thing : y...
by k9
Fri May 16, 2014 2:52 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Talmud Portfolio
Replies: 28
Views: 18418

Re: Talmud Portfolio

As for me, that would be : land : rental real estate, farms, etc. directly owned businesses : dividend-producing foreign stocks directly owned reserves : 50% gold, 50% local currency (saving accounts, very short term bonds, actual cash, ...) That would mean 50% physical 50% financial, but also 50% l...
by k9
Mon Mar 31, 2014 4:34 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Poll: What percentage of your gold is held in physical form?
Replies: 49
Views: 22954

Re: Poll: What percentage of your gold is held in physical form?

100% physical here. To each his own, but I don't really get the "I'm 100% ETF because that's more convenient". You are not supposed to ever sell your whole gold portion (except in armaggedon scenarios). So you can hold a stable foundation (say, 1/3rd of it you will probably never, ever sell) as phys...
by k9
Tue Jan 28, 2014 3:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How about a 33x3 PP with no cash?
Replies: 24
Views: 13420

Re: How about a 33x3 PP with no cash?

1981 was a bad year for the PP (I think the worse ever), but the drawdown was limited by the cash portion of the PP. A 3x33 PP would have been decimated (something like a 20% loss instead of a 5% one, not including the high inflation of that time).
by k9
Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:03 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Real Cash VS. PP Cash
Replies: 11
Views: 9995

Re: Real Cash VS. PP Cash

I'm not sure about bond funds, especially for a EU investor. After all, iShares could very well fail (or fraud) and take your money with them, at least as much as an FDIC insured bank could, but without that insurance (it is worth what it is worth, but a weak insurance is better than no insurance at...
by k9
Mon Jan 27, 2014 8:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio: Reflections, Concerns, & Questions
Replies: 17
Views: 6929

Re: The Permanent Portfolio: Reflections, Concerns, & Questions

Imagine how the world would change if we had 50% efficiency solar panels. I mean, just think about it! Impoverished countries in the Sahara could become fantastically wealthy practically overnight. And that's only 50%! My furnace is 90% efficient, and newer ones boast efficiency ratings of like 98....
by k9
Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:06 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Role of Gold in a Portfolio
Replies: 2
Views: 3450

Re: Role of Gold in a Portfolio

So "normal" = growing economy and rising inflation "ideal" = growing economy and falling inflation "stagflation" = shrinking economy and rising inflation and "deflation" = shrinking economy and falling inflation How do these categories relate to HB's four classic conditions?  According to the study...
by k9
Wed Jan 22, 2014 8:37 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Wade Pfau's stock market drops > 50% in inflation-adjusted terms - 20 countries
Replies: 10
Views: 8692

Re: Wade Pfau's stock market drops > 50% in inflation-adjusted terms - 20 countries

Wow. Even a PP investor would have been decimated in quite a few occurrences, with almost only his gold left. Must be pretty hard to rebalance in those circumstances. Your bonds & stocks lost 90% and 95% of their respective values ? Why don't you sell 3/4 of your gold to buy some more ? Craig, isn't...
by k9
Sun Jan 19, 2014 12:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Carrying physical gold out of the country
Replies: 18
Views: 8698

Re: Carrying physical gold out of the country

Or, the law could be used against you : "oh, those coins are worth 50$ ? So you won't mind if we take them and give you back 50$ notes, right ? Since you consider these coins are nothing more than legal tender ?"
by k9
Sun Jan 12, 2014 9:31 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?
Replies: 120
Views: 49765

Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

Frugal & ns3, I used WiseOne's data provided in the early pages of that thread, I just removed the "bond" component. I took data from 1972 up to 2013, so, yes, it includes the 70s and 80s when cash was yielding a lot. Yes, that might be out of sight forever, but a 2200% gain after expenses offers qu...
by k9
Sat Jan 11, 2014 9:17 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?
Replies: 120
Views: 49765

Re: Is the successful salaried retail investor a myth?

I just tried to see what happens with a bondless (hence, 33% cash) PP, results are even better. I ended up with 22 million $ (rather than 16) at the end of 2013. Even a 7,5% withdrawal rate would have survived 40 years without eating the initial capital (although it would seriously have been on the ...
by k9
Fri Jan 10, 2014 10:33 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Wade Pfau's stock market drops > 50% in inflation-adjusted terms - 20 countries
Replies: 10
Views: 8692

Re: Wade Pfau's stock market drops > 50% in inflation-adjusted terms - 20 countries

That's a great chart ! No wonder stock bugs on the forums seem to be from USA, by the way. You guys seem to have avoided bad times, up to now. I wonder what a treasury bond market drop would look like, though. In some places, it clearly dropped 100% with governments defaulting (which seems to have n...
by k9
Thu Jan 09, 2014 3:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What Happened to PP in 2013?
Replies: 21
Views: 13192

Re: What Happened to PP in 2013?

I know the stock market and the bond markets are different... Obviously. But a lot of the price movement around stock earnings is similar to the price movement around long-term bond interest rates. If stocks were quoted by their 10 year and 1 year trailing earnings yield (PE ratio flipped), rather ...
by k9
Wed Jan 08, 2014 7:42 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.
Replies: 39
Views: 20155

Re: Permanent Portfolio 2013 Results.

My own implementation of the PP (1/3 cash, 1/3 gold, 1/3 stocks, eurozone) is down 3% this year, or 4% in real €. I have a bigger allocation to gold (wohoo, 2nd biggest bear market ever for 1/3 of my portfolio !) than the official PP, so this is a very good return for the strategy IMO. I'm quite hap...
by k9
Wed Jan 08, 2014 7:26 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is there an "ignore user" feature on this forum?
Replies: 17
Views: 4039

Re: Is there an "ignore user" feature on this forum?

MediumTex wrote: Come on fellas.

I hate reading stuff like this.
Then I guess you should use the "ignore user" feature ;)
by k9
Thu Nov 28, 2013 3:40 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?
Replies: 11
Views: 8651

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

In practice, does it change anything if you automatically reinvest dividends ?
by k9
Sat Nov 09, 2013 10:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rich hoarding cash
Replies: 19
Views: 10989

Re: Rich hoarding cash

citizens "you have n years to change your old Lira notes for the new Euro notes". The deadline was supposed to be 2012, something like that. But, all of a sudden, in the middle of 2011, a law was voted, that said : "oh, we were supposed to give you euros against your liras, remember ? Well, we won'...
by k9
Thu Nov 07, 2013 10:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rich hoarding cash
Replies: 19
Views: 10989

Re: Rich hoarding cash

AFAIK, it never really happened in the US, and you can still pay with bank notes emitted before WWI if you like, right ? That's not the case in many parts of Europe, especially where the € has been introduced, since new banknotes (with a very different design) are often produced and are supposed to ...
by k9
Thu Nov 07, 2013 4:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Noflation
Replies: 26
Views: 14060

Re: Noflation

EU (where I live) is a real laboratory for "political risk". Many things have been tested yet, besides the obvious continuous tax rate raises : partial default on government bonds (Greece) default on banknotes (Italy, although it was on a small scale) annihilation of any bank account balance above 1...
by k9
Thu Nov 07, 2013 3:35 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Rich hoarding cash
Replies: 19
Views: 10989

Re: Rich hoarding cash

Rien, I'd like to know what you're thinking about when you talk about default-free cash. Banknotes can be defaulted on, too. That happened a lot in many places in Europe.
by k9
Wed Nov 06, 2013 8:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Noflation
Replies: 26
Views: 14060

Re: Noflation

Yes, I think the political factor has to be taken into consideration and it is not taken into consideration at all in the "academic" 2X2 grid. If the government (or a supra-national organization, like, say, IMF, or ECB for us European citizens) wants to steal my property (there are many ways : gover...