Search found 50 matches

by JohnnyFactor
Fri Dec 30, 2016 9:43 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Dear 2016, we will miss you.
Replies: 0
Views: 2636

Dear 2016, we will miss you.

RIP Prince David Bowie George Michael Nancy Reagan Carrie Fisher Debbie Reynolds and Permanent Portfolio Forum I know, I know. One of these things is not like the others. I also lost my grandfather this year (at 96 years young). Now that my youth is officially gone, it's time to look forward. I thin...
by JohnnyFactor
Tue Dec 20, 2016 5:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657254

Re: The GOLD scream room

I have a pie chart in google sheets with the 4 assets in percentages. changing the numbers around gives a quick visual of the math. I just did a test and gold would indeed lose half it's value (drops to $600) to reach 15%. But that's with all other assets staying static, which should never happen. N...
by JohnnyFactor
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657254

Re: The GOLD scream room

...that is a lot of angst you've got to sit through watching it drop to those levels! I believe Harry Browne chose 15/35 because that reflects the typical amount of downside/upside of the volatile assets before they start to swing in the other direction, thus buying low and selling high. edit: I've...
by JohnnyFactor
Sun Dec 18, 2016 2:22 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP in non QE world
Replies: 21
Views: 11754

Re: PP in non QE world

what if This is the reason why we invest in the PP to begin with. What should happen is not the same as what does happen. These forums are littered with dead and gone predictions that went nowhere. I can agree with your logic but it doesn't help me make a better decision. Continue questioning the P...
by JohnnyFactor
Sat Dec 17, 2016 10:19 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657254

Re: The GOLD scream room

Johnny, interesting story that it bothered you enough to sell. Try silver? I love silver, in any form. I'm embarrassed to say that I was suckered into silver in 2011 at the peak. I wasn't aware of Jack Bogle or Harry Browne (or common sense) and I was convinced that silver was finally repricing its...
by JohnnyFactor
Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:32 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657254

Re: The GOLD scream room

I've heard people say that holding your first gold coin is quite an experience. I bought my first coin in the summer and brought it home to see what the fuss was about. Disappointment would be a mild word. I gave it some time, thinking I just need to let it sink in but nothing happened. After severa...
by JohnnyFactor
Sat Dec 17, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Where should new contributions go?
Replies: 54
Views: 32919

Re: Where should new contributions go?

I've always believed prosperity is in the cards for 2016-2020 but weird things can happen that derail momentum. It's why I invest 4x25 regardless of my beliefs (with some VP on the side because its fun).
by JohnnyFactor
Sat Dec 17, 2016 12:05 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: “The Worst Start To A Year Ever!”
Replies: 9
Views: 9769

“The Worst Start To A Year Ever!”

Taylor at BH posted this excellent link and I thought it was worth bringing over here. Just another reminder to ignore the noise.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/12/15 ... year-ever/
by JohnnyFactor
Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Where should new contributions go?
Replies: 54
Views: 32919

Re: Where should new contributions go?

Canadian long term bond ETF popped +1% on the rate hike news today. Canada should be following the trend shortly. To show what it's like trading in a non-reserve currency, gold dropped -1% but the CAN dollar dropped -1% too, so even-steven.
by JohnnyFactor
Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Where should new contributions go?
Replies: 54
Views: 32919

Re: Where should new contributions go?

I wanted to bring this thread back and see where people are at with their contribution methods. I'm currently adding to the lagging asset, but I can see why equal contributions would be beneficial. A rising tide raises all boats and equal contributions raise all assets. This maintains the AA 'drift'...
by JohnnyFactor
Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Do you think silver will beat future inflation?
Replies: 46
Views: 29814

Re: Do you think silver will beat future inflation?

I ran across this interesting bit, discussing the possibility of India shifting more of their gold purchasing to silver. Could mean big changes to the silver market if it materializes.

http://qz.com/851315/is-silver-replacin ... 100-years/
by JohnnyFactor
Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Trump's Effect on the PP
Replies: 88
Views: 65486

Re: Trump's Effect on the PP

Cortopassi, why do you have silver? I like silver myself but I don't know how to classify it as an investment.
by JohnnyFactor
Thu Oct 13, 2016 11:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Can we trust low correlations?
Replies: 51
Views: 29464

Re: Can we trust low correlations?

PeteKoziar wrote:Instead, I made up my own "fund" of individual stocks that have a low PE and high profitability.
This was what Harry Browne originally recommended before index investing became much easier. As long as you can maintain sufficient volatility of the stock quadrant, I think it's a fine idea.
by JohnnyFactor
Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spending gold during a currency meltdown
Replies: 7
Views: 4732

Re: Spending gold during a currency meltdown

There is someone who lived through this scenario in Argentina in 2001 and he wrote a book about it. https://www.amazon.com/Modern-Survival-Manual-Surviving-Economic/dp/9870563457/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8 There were 'middlemen' who would buy gold from you, but at pawn shop rates. They didn...
by JohnnyFactor
Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Is Money Because It Is Plentiful, Not Because It Is Scarce
Replies: 5
Views: 4162

Re: Gold Is Money Because It Is Plentiful, Not Because It Is Scarce

There are mining companies who go the extra mile in environmentally conscious practices. Newmont Mining Corp. is one of them. http://www.newmont.com/home/default.aspx

There is also the Dow Jones Sustainability Index if you just want to buy them all. http://www.sustainability-indices.com/
by JohnnyFactor
Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Is Money Because It Is Plentiful, Not Because It Is Scarce
Replies: 5
Views: 4162

Gold Is Money Because It Is Plentiful, Not Because It Is Scarce

http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2016/09/29/gold-is-money-because-it-is-plentiful-not-because-it-is-scarce/ snippets: "It is easy to see that “supply and demand” issues that affect copper and wheat have no effect on gold. You could double the annual mine supply, or cut it in half, with littl...
by JohnnyFactor
Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:33 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657254

Re: The GOLD scream room

The gist of your question is, "when everything's high, what do you do?" Logic tells me that when everything is high, it means money has been spread across all assets. Seems like people are betting on everything but cash until the direction of the economic wind is clear. We should be back in traditi...
by JohnnyFactor
Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:46 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Sovereign Man PP Article: When they say ‘hoarding’ instead of ‘saving’ you know you’re in trouble
Replies: 6
Views: 4431

Re: Sovereign Man PP Article: When they say ‘hoarding’ instead of ‘saving’ you know you’re in trouble

" So on a risk-adjusted basis, the portfolio posted very strong returns for decades. Until now. " This has been posted in many PP articles for years. Everyone is always convinced it's just about to stop working. " Bonds have become foolish investments. " This opinion is based on current monetary pol...
by JohnnyFactor
Thu Sep 01, 2016 9:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint Online Depository Program
Replies: 33
Views: 22485

Re: Perth Mint Online Depository Program

Bron Suchecki has stated that unallocated is fully backed by physical at all times. They will not sell you an ounce if they don't physically have it. Perth Mint is a manufacturer not a lender, so they do not fractionalize or lease their gold. It's all spelled out here: https://www.perthmint.com/stor...
by JohnnyFactor
Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Currency Risk: Which is worse?
Replies: 4
Views: 3884

Re: Currency Risk: Which is worse?

blue_ruin17 wrote:...higher returns and lower volatility.
Do you mean lower volatility in just the equity portion, or the entire portfolio?
by JohnnyFactor
Mon Aug 29, 2016 11:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is a Canadian/US 'Hybrid' HBPP superior to a 100% CDN HBPP?
Replies: 5
Views: 3676

Re: Is a Canadian/US 'Hybrid' HBPP superior to a 100% CDN HBPP?

I've split my equities half TSX, half SP500 and EAFE. I have no idea if this is a good thing or not, but I'm trying to hedge against the cyclical commodity economy of Canada. Bonds don't worry me too much. Yes, people pile into US Bonds during crises but regular interest rate changes tend to happen ...
by JohnnyFactor
Tue Jul 12, 2016 8:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657254

Re: The GOLD scream room

True wealth is measured by how many (gold) friends you have. ;)
by JohnnyFactor
Tue Jul 12, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657254

Re: The GOLD scream room

That would be silly. The coins do all the talking.
by JohnnyFactor
Fri Jul 08, 2016 10:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 109
Views: 43640

Re: Oh Come On

Thanks! I got some historical perspective by reading both of the epic PP threads at Bogleheads. It took three weeks to get through them, but I saw the sentiment and results from the credit crisis of 2008, the gold top of 2011, and the gold crash of 2013. I've read all of the Harry Browne economic bo...
by JohnnyFactor
Fri Jul 08, 2016 9:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 109
Views: 43640

Re: Oh Come On

Imagine being a nubile PP investor and putting all your eggs into the basket on 1-1-2016. You'd vote for HB in the next election. I'm a PP noob and discovered Harry Browne over the Christmas holidays while looking for a sensible plan. I took my modest savings and went all in this January. In May, I...