Search found 153 matches

by blue_ruin17
Fri Jun 16, 2017 10:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: P2P Lending
Replies: 74
Views: 52620

Re: P2P Lending

For any Canadians out there looking to get into P2P lending, checkout LENDING LOOP So far I've put $25 into every loan they've posted since January (about 50) and I've yet to have a single late payment or charge-off. I'm fascinated by the technology [/b] of P2P lending, in the same way that I'm intr...
by blue_ruin17
Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Backtesting the PP in Other Countries (Economies)
Replies: 30
Views: 24100

Re: Backtesting the PP in Other Countries (Economies)

I saved this in notepad when I came across it somewhere in Bogleheads, but did not copy the URL.

PP In Iceland, 2008:

1. 25% LT Bonds: 0% 
2. 25% ST Bonds: 12% 
3. 25% Stocks: -88% 
4. 25% Gold: +259% 

Total PP: +46% 
by blue_ruin17
Fri Jun 02, 2017 7:03 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP exit strategy
Replies: 24
Views: 17297

Re: PP exit strategy

If I have to abandon the PP, it is probably only because the financial system has seized, or collapsed altogether. In that case, my "exit strategy" is to simply write-off my 100% paper losses and sit on my physical gold holdings until the dust settles. In other words, the PP already comes standard w...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Mar 07, 2017 4:34 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Channeling Maxine Waters (Wikileaks Vault 7)
Replies: 38
Views: 23393

Re: Channeling Maxine Waters (Wikileaks Vault 7)

Today's 'Vault 7' release, 'Year Zero', is just the first in the series, and its already the greatest CIA leak in history. God knows what else will be revealed in subsequent releases. An observation: isn't it interesting that the only mention of the leak on CNN's website is buried in their 'Tech New...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Feb 28, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Five Year's Living Expenses
Replies: 12
Views: 10240

Re: Five Year's Living Expenses

Based on the OP, I'm going to speculate that Mark Leavy does not appear to understand the role that 'cash' plays in the HBPP. 'Cash' in the HBPP isn't just "spending money" that sits around and looks pretty. By removing it, your portfolio is suddenly subject to a range of risks and vulnerabilities t...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1386595

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Wow, this thread (which I just discovered) is about as epic as the Bogleheads PP thread.

No way I'm going to be able to read through this one though, not unless I end up in full-traction at the hospital and have a few weeks to kill.
by blue_ruin17
Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Germany has their gold. Do you?
Replies: 13
Views: 7954

Re: Germany has their gold. Do you?

Yep. Although the NY Fed is supposed to have more gold than Fort Knox, I'm still curious: does the book to which you linked also purport that Fort Knox is empty? Or holding less than it says? I don't argue that Fort Knox or the NY Fed or US government vaults have no gold in their vaults, they obvio...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Feb 14, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Germany has their gold. Do you?
Replies: 13
Views: 7954

Re: Germany has their gold. Do you?

For what it's worth, the vault is open to tourists. I realize that it might not be easy (impossible) to count the stash, but the fact that it's open to the public means something to me. http://abcnews.go.com/Business/story?id=5835433&page=1 Sounds like a good place for a gyro-investors get-together...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:19 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Germany has their gold. Do you?
Replies: 13
Views: 7954

Re: Germany has their gold. Do you?

No different than linking to a WSJ or NYT article: take with a grain silo of salt. Not that those publications are perfect - far from it - but I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on that comparison. Agreed, I didn't intend to hijack this thread and make it a debate about the state of contempora...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Germany has their gold. Do you?
Replies: 13
Views: 7954

Re: Germany has their gold. Do you?

Conspiracy theory from a Russkie government "news" site. (sputnik) No different than linking to a WSJ or NYT article: take with a grain silo of salt. It does seem quite obvious that something was amiss from the beginning, though. When a significant US ally asks for their segregated gold to be trans...
by blue_ruin17
Mon Feb 13, 2017 10:00 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Germany has their gold. Do you?
Replies: 13
Views: 7954

Re: Germany has their gold. Do you?

https://sputniknews.com/business/201702111050571970-us-germany-gold-repatriation/ There are a lot of signs that the gold was not physically presented in the New York vaults when Germany called it back. Of course, the US began to return it to Germany but there is one interesting detail. When you lea...
by blue_ruin17
Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative Rates Have Made Danes Richer Than Ever
Replies: 8
Views: 6839

Re: Negative Rates Have Made Danes Richer Than Ever

This article is insane in its casual acceptance of obvious absurdity. So apparently in our double-speak, anti-truth world it is now "obvious" that the path to sustained and durable wealth is that of issuing bonds that cost the owner to hold. This is an economic absurdity that even a six-year-old wou...
by blue_ruin17
Mon Feb 06, 2017 6:26 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold as a Diversifier
Replies: 24
Views: 11417

Re: Gold as a Diversifier

mathjak107 wrote:gold has been more about timing the markets than time in the markets.
This is only true if you just buy a bunch of gold and sit on it. If you also hold an equally-weighted, negatively co-related asset in your portfolio, you can harvest capital gains from gold through re-balancing.
by blue_ruin17
Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 30995

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

Needless to say, I really chose the wrong moment to buy gold. The odds of an asset going down as soon as you buy it is almost 100%. The PP is a "cover all bases" portfolio. Something is always going up and something is always going down. And yet, you must bite the bullet and recognize that you must...
by blue_ruin17
Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:05 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Does Gold's Markup Bother You?
Replies: 39
Views: 25192

Re: Does Gold's Markup Bother You?

The premium for physical + the spread you pay to the dealer + the costs of storage is collectively the expense you accept for the systemic security that physical gold provides your portfolio. That being said, there are strategies you can use to mitigates those expenses. For example, I believe that h...
by blue_ruin17
Sat Feb 04, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Absolutle Safety - Mutual Funds VS ETF???
Replies: 12
Views: 7227

Re: Absolutle Safety - Mutual Funds VS ETF???

years ago i had a package of stock certificates i had to get to the broker get lost in shipping . i sold them and owed a whole lot of interest on them by the time they were located . i will never do that again . Thank you for sharing. That is a good point about the hassle involved. I guess in a rea...
by blue_ruin17
Fri Feb 03, 2017 9:51 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?
Replies: 6
Views: 4948

Re: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?

I could but there is plenty to read by doing some google searches. Equal weight vs risk parity or mean variance portfolios. I did, and I read this paper that I found ( How Inefficient are Simple Asset-Allocation Strategies? ) The TLDR conclusion that the paper makes is: Our main finding is that the...
by blue_ruin17
Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?
Replies: 6
Views: 4948

Re: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?

Kbg wrote:Practically speaking though, risk is highest when volatility is lowest which is exactly the worst place to be when that asset goes off the inevitable periodic cliff and in major SHTF events most correlations spike.
Can you elaborate on this?
by blue_ruin17
Thu Feb 02, 2017 6:53 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?
Replies: 6
Views: 4948

Thoughts on the new (Canadian) Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO)?

Normally I wouldn't give an actively managed ETF a second glance, but the new Canadian Global Risk Parity ETF (HRA.TO) has caught my eye. It is a Horizon ETF, but the management of the fund is sub-contracted out to 'ReSolve Asset Management Inc.' , or as some of us might know them better, the guys t...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 31, 2017 12:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative PP Models
Replies: 26
Views: 20307

Re: Alternative PP Models

While I admire Harry Browne's strategy and invest a portion of my portfolio using an adapted-Permanent Portfolio, I do not worship at the altar of Harry Browne. In part, Browne and his apostles prepared for a post-apocalyptic world requiring physical gold to survive. I just do not believe the Walki...
by blue_ruin17
Mon Jan 30, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Alternative PP Models
Replies: 26
Views: 20307

Re: Alternative PP Models

Some questions: If your modified PP under-preformed the HBPP for a period of weeks, months or even years, would you be able to stick with your system, or would you bail? What are the real-world costs of running this modified PP? How much will transactions cost you? How many extra taxable events will...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: High Savings Rate vs. Home Ownership
Replies: 12
Views: 9330

Re: High Savings Rate vs. Home Ownership

That's a great summary! Minor quibble here: Rent expenses are certain and predictable. Home-ownership expenses are infamously variable and unpredictable. Having significant liquid assets built-up first is advisable; this runs counter to the conventional wisdom of "building wealth through home-owner...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: SHTF Preparedness
Replies: 4
Views: 5900

Re: SHTF Preparedness

I keep 5% of my "cash" allocation in physical bills. This serves as a hedge against systemic risks such as: capital controls; bank holidays; infrastructure failures; and local or limited-duration national emergencies. However, I keep no more than 5%, as physical cash is susceptible to theft, fire, c...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:52 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Max volatility (while capturing growth)
Replies: 1
Views: 4264

Re: Max volatility (while capturing growth)

Everyone and their grandma tilts small-value, nowadays. The historic SV "premium" may therefore prove to have been an overcrowded trade looking back 10, 20 years from now. EM's have potential for huge gains because they have potential for huge busts and drawdowns. It is commonplace to predict that "...
by blue_ruin17
Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:13 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: High Savings Rate vs. Home Ownership
Replies: 12
Views: 9330

Re: High Savings Rate vs. Home Ownership

Some thoughts and musings: It is easy to trick yourself into considerably inflating your housing expenses (as a percentage of your income) by convincing yourself that its an "investment" ; buying is probably more efficient for building net-worth than renting, but only if relative housing expenses a...