Search found 230 matches

by Ugly_Bird
Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Dream Room
Replies: 554
Views: 369392

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Foreign investors resumed selling U.S. Treasury bonds and notes in December, Treasury department data on Tuesday showed, after they made net purchases in November. On a transaction basis, foreigners sold $20.7 billion in Treasuries in December, after buying $9.6 billion of them in November, the U.S...
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:25 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1777640

Re: The GOLD scream room

Cortopassi wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:16 am Examples. A billion is measly!
100 trillion :-)
71j-2+22P+L._AC_SL1281_.jpg
71j-2+22P+L._AC_SL1281_.jpg (155.82 KiB) Viewed 7754 times
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:07 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1777640

Re: The GOLD scream room

SomeDude wrote: Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:13 am GSR under 70
Oooops! :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 68
Views: 22936

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

bitcoininthevp wrote: Sun Jan 17, 2021 12:00 pm Holding bitcoin can be impossible to detect in the physical world, etc.
But cashing out would be difficult.
by Ugly_Bird
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:23 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

So, I went ahead and bought GBTC on my Traditional IRA with Fidelity. :-) Now the question is what kind of orders I need too place there to sell at certain points? That would be two scenarios: 1) Hits the same price I bought at (to prevent loss) 2) Doubles the price I bought at Would it be some kin...
by Ugly_Bird
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:13 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

So, I went ahead and bought GBTC on my Traditional IRA with Fidelity. :-) Now the question is what kind of orders I need too place there to sell at certain points? That would be two scenarios: 1) Hits the same price I bought at (to prevent loss) 2) Doubles the price I bought at Would it be some kin...
by Ugly_Bird
Thu Jan 07, 2021 10:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

pors wrote: Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:44 am Why would you buy GBTC with a 2% annual fee if you can buy the real thing?
Because there is no real thing for the tax deferred account.
2% fee is much better than paying tax for XXX% profit :-)

I do have the real thing in another account
by Ugly_Bird
Thu Jan 07, 2021 9:22 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

One quick question: Will this be done in a regular cash brokerage account or an IRA/401k? I might have an idea/suggestion that you may wish to consider. Actually I was thinking about this question. Even at this price I may buy some GBTC on my IRA and sell when BTC hits 100k or sell at about the sam...
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:47 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

One quick question: Will this be done in a regular cash brokerage account or an IRA/401k? I might have an idea/suggestion that you may wish to consider. Thank you for your reply. It is going to be in a brokerage. Not implementing that kind of VP through IRA/401k :-) In this case I would ask that yo...
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Jan 06, 2021 8:45 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

One quick question: Will this be done in a regular cash brokerage account or an IRA/401k? I might have an idea/suggestion that you may wish to consider. Actually I was thinking about this question. Even at this price I may buy some GBTC on my IRA and sell when BTC hits 100k or sell at about the sam...
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:28 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 68
Views: 22936

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

bitcoininthevp wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:20 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:16 pm Most likely it is a temporary thing while BTC is bullish.
But regardless, do you think people are actually taking billions out of gold and putting it into bitcoin?
I do not think so. At least yet :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Jan 06, 2021 2:16 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows
Replies: 68
Views: 22936

Re: Gold outflows, bitcoin inflows

Im curious if bitcoin really is becoming a competitor to gold. Im a fan of both assets. Since October: More than $3bn of inflows into Grayscale Bitcoin Trust More than $7bn of outflows from Gold ETFs https://i.ibb.co/CHDKg3H/Eq6q-Gwu-XYAAhm6o.jpg Does anyone else have other data sets on this? Most ...
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:31 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1777640

Re: The GOLD scream room

buddtholomew wrote: Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:59 pm Bitcoin sell-off = Gold’s benefit
Good point. That should happen sometimes this year.
Depends when BTC drops 70-80%
by Ugly_Bird
Sat Jan 02, 2021 8:24 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: So much for the anonymity of Bitcoin
Replies: 26
Views: 10820

Re: So much for the anonymity of Bitcoin

ochotona wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 6:19 pm
SomeDude wrote: Sat Jan 02, 2021 2:15 pm Bitcoin $31k sweet baby Jesus.
The selling program starts at $100k for me
I think me too. Though a little tempting to be more greedy. :-)
Most likely there will be further craziness' before it crashes 70-80%
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Dec 30, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: So much for the anonymity of Bitcoin
Replies: 26
Views: 10820

Re: So much for the anonymity of Bitcoin

SomeDude wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 11:01 am Who on Earth is buying bitcoin at these prices that's what I want to know.
I do not want to know and I do not care.
Ask the same question sometime next year when they will buy for +100k :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: So much for the anonymity of Bitcoin
Replies: 26
Views: 10820

Re: So much for the anonymity of Bitcoin

SomeDude wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 10:34 am umm that would be worth $280k now.
And possibly over a million in some not so distant future.
Still need to figure out how to milk this cow and sell before the next crash, then buy again :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: So much for the anonymity of Bitcoin
Replies: 26
Views: 10820

Re: So much for the anonymity of Bitcoin

I Shrugged wrote: Tue Dec 29, 2020 5:33 pm It will be interesting to see if Bitcoin price craters.
It did! But exactly the opposite :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Mon Dec 28, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

I think bitcoin is pretty binary: or you lose it all or you'll make a huge profit. So my advice is: only use money you are prepared to lose and buy&hold, no cash rebalancing. This is why it is in VP, right? :-) It is binary if the portfolio 100 BTC. Diluted with cash and proper rebalance limits...
by Ugly_Bird
Sat Dec 26, 2020 11:17 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

Curious if Tyler would run some models on his charts? Thank you! As fascinating as Bitcoin is, there just isn't enough historical data to make it worthwhile for backtesting, IMO. But it'll be interesting to watch how it grows over time. Thank you for quick reply, Tyler. Absolutely right, not too mu...
by Ugly_Bird
Sat Dec 26, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

Mark Leavy wrote: Sat Dec 26, 2020 10:24 pm I'm not putting any money there, but I wouldn't say you are wrong.
You made your point three times already. Somehow that wasn't the part of the subject.... :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Sat Dec 26, 2020 11:07 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

D1984 wrote: Sat Dec 26, 2020 10:21 pm One quick question: Will this be done in a regular cash brokerage account or an IRA/401k? I might have an idea/suggestion that you may wish to consider.
Thank you for your reply. It is going to be in a brokerage. Not implementing that kind of VP through IRA/401k :-)
by Ugly_Bird
Sat Dec 26, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Re: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

I wouldn’t trust any back testing of bitcoin. Any time one of the assets that you are including in your back testing has had crazy, unsustainable, exponential growth for years, It’s a suckers move to assume that it is any indication of the future. Your portfolio idea may or may not be a good one, b...
by Ugly_Bird
Sat Dec 26, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 9851

Bitcoin+Cash portfolio?

Hello! I bought some BTC a few month ago and was thinking about running a BTC+cash variable portfolio. Used some online tools to backtrack 50/50, 80/20 and 90/10 BTC/Cash portfolios and the higher ratio portfolios did better. Though I apparently didn't do the rebalancing bands correctly. Thus, askin...
by Ugly_Bird
Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1777640

Re: The GOLD scream room

by Ugly_Bird
Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Portfolio Charts 5 Year Anniversary
Replies: 11
Views: 4841

Re: Portfolio Charts 5 Year Anniversary

Congratulations Tyler. And thank you so much!