Kbg wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:46 am I believe long bonds are going to be the most "interesting" part of the portfolio going forward, by a long shot.

+1

There is a reason the Fed types have the term "the zero bound". Sure, things can go negative. It has happened in non-US markets. But as discussed above, as a practical matter it probably can't last too long. If nothing else, it would inflame dangerous sentiments with consequences hard to ...

It's probably fair to say that the "smart money" worldwide thinks US LTTs are the place to be right now. If so, is that encouraging? ??? I don't particularly like riding a wave of high velocity smart money. Then again, HB would say that's exactly what has to happen with one or more compon...

VIX is at 61.62. HOLY %@#*!

The convexity of the bonds is doing an excellent job propping up the PP the past couple days. My portfolio is at year's high. Nuts. My hat is off to this portfolio. I know I could be speaking different tomorrow. Things are getting closer to rebalance bands. As of yesterday I was surprised to see th...

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 9:03 am

pmward wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 8:59 am

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:26 am Back down to up only $3 on the day, at $1676.

Yeah, we've officially hit that public "SELL EVERYTHING!!!" point in the meltdown.

Except bonds?

Money has to go somewhere, and usually in those sell everything panic modes it winds up in bonds.

At some point though holding a negatively yielding 30 year bonds makes no sense....I can see holding it around 0 but as yield continues to decline it no longer makes any logical sense. Logical sense left the building ages ago. The big league pitching thrown by markets is tough to hit these days. Se...

Libertarian666 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 09, 2020 3:26 am Back down to up only $3 on the day, at $1676.

Yeah, we've officially hit that public "SELL EVERYTHING!!!" point in the meltdown.

craigr wrote: ↑Sun Mar 08, 2020 10:06 pm If they hit 0% we'll all be too busy rebalancing back into stocks and cash. That will be a massive haul.

Truth!

So far in 2020 both small caps and value in general have been exceptionally weak. This drought for both is indeed pretty crazy, and I don't think anyone would be silly for questioning both small caps and value at this point. I think 40% VTI would not be unreasonable at all if anyone does not have f...

Holy crap it really is our generations Black Monday. I am looking at harvesting my losses in ITOT by shuffling into VTI, but I'm going to wait until we have at least a 30 minute period with stocks not being halted, as I don't want to be selling into a liquidity squeeze.

Looking at futures, I'm very glad you all nudged me off the ledge on doing the rebalance on Friday

And and stock future and oil futures are absolutely tanking. Going to be another fun, exciting day tomorrow, haha.

In my mind, once 30-year bond yields hit -1%, the cost to cash out federal reserve notes and stick them in a vault becomes attractive relative to the 1% cost of keeping the money in the bond. The problem in your thinking is that you are thinking of this only from your perspective, as a small indivi...

Investing in bonds seems relativistic to me. The speed of light is always constant, no matter how fast you travel. The returns from bonds are always the same, no matter what your clever strategy is! The sheer size of the treasury market means it's pretty difficult to perform any real worthwhile arb...

Negative interest rates aren’t so weird in a deflationary environment, in which the rate of inflation is negative. So my guess is that if we see negative interest rates in the U.S. for a long period of time, it will be during a long, drawn-out deflation. This is precisely what we are in now. Corpor...

Negative yields in the U.S. would definitely force a lot of people out into riskier assets with money that they otherwise would have kept safe... It seems to me as interest rates approach zero on the longer end of the spectrum it would drive money into stocks, gold and cash. Again, I don't see the ...

pmward, is there a book or book chapter, or paper you would recommend that discusses this cycle? Navigating Big Debt Crisis by Ray Dalio Also, by "... and bond holders get a compounding expense ," do you mean that, whenever the bond interest rate is less than inflation, bond holders are p...

Are these held taxable or tax deferred? If taxable there is benefit to selling and realizing the gain as a long term cap gain and trading down to the lower yield (you may even be able to harvest some stock losses right now to help pay the tax bill). Now, you do alter your average maturity when you d...

Yes, small time retail investors could hold physical cash, but it would be almost impossible for large institutions and businesses, which is really where most of the wealth is held. Aside from the possibility, there is also the feasibility aspect. Where to stash this cash? Obviously, the members of ...

If anyone wants to feel a bit better about the stock selloff the last couple weeks, this is a great video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddTRrc0A7Vo He looks back historically since the VIX was first started in 1990 at each of the 10 times that we had a VIX spike similar to what we have experience...

Might I introduce you to Tyler's wonderful article on bond convexity: https://portfoliocharts.com/2019/05/27/high-profits-at-low-rates-the-benefits-of-bond-convexity/ Combine that with the fact that gold is highly correlated to negative real interest rates, and the fact that lower risk free rates co...

Dalio's thoughts on the corona virus https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/my-thoug ... ray-dalio/

I went early this morning to do my shopping before the crowds. I actually stocked up on food. I usually just purchase food fresh that I'm going to eat the next week. But this week I actually filled my freezer and pantry up. I'm single and live alone, so if I do catch it and cannot leave the house fo...

So I do think a reaxamination of the classic 4x25 portfolio is necessary should our rates decline to the point that Europe's have. At that point I would almost think a 3x33 comprising of cash, gold and stocks would make more sense....off the cuff It doesn't have to be an all or nothing binary switc...