Search found 4456 matches

by mathjak107
Mon Oct 16, 2023 4:11 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100242

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

gold is a competitor to the dollar ..at 3.46% the last 10 years it out performed cash instruments
by mathjak107
Mon Oct 16, 2023 4:09 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: How do bond funds / ETF’s work?
Replies: 6
Views: 4583

Re: How do bond funds / ETF’s work?

yeah you'll get 4.65 total return back after 25 years its like holding a bond thats always 25 year duration Anybody heard from robert kessler? Seems like he'd be buying https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1EKb8dk0vg Just to clarify. You mean I will get 4.65 yield FOR 25 years not “after” 25 years, cor...
by mathjak107
Mon Oct 16, 2023 11:21 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: How do bond funds / ETF’s work?
Replies: 6
Views: 4583

Re: How do bond funds / ETF’s work?

I think he retired and closed the firm

He did awful
by mathjak107
Thu Oct 12, 2023 3:56 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: tax-loss harvesting question
Replies: 16
Views: 22317

Re: tax-loss harvesting question

what looks weird is tlt shows 100% AA since the downgrade , yet vglt shows 99 %. AAA
by mathjak107
Tue Oct 10, 2023 5:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: tax-loss harvesting question
Replies: 16
Views: 22317

Re: tax-loss harvesting question

remember , tax loss harvesting kicks the tax can down the road it bumps up the cost basis on what you buy to replace what you sold so it may or may not be a good thing . i kicked the tax can down the road when we sold our commercial lease rights we held . i kicked it right into the capital gains bra...
by mathjak107
Mon Sep 25, 2023 1:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT cracks $90
Replies: 43
Views: 69115

Re: TLT cracks $90

many people here were fearing equities falling 50% . it turns out bonds were the riskiest bet of all. but i have said that for a long time now , that rising rates were kryptonite to the pp. equities can do well in rising rates if the economy stays healthy , but bond rates can’t hold up very long , e...
by mathjak107
Tue Sep 19, 2023 4:38 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95397

Re: PP Mistakes

the problem with foreign stocks is you need to be right twice .

once about equities and even if you got that right you need to be right about the dollar .

i rather bet on american stocks and gold if i have to be right twice
by mathjak107
Tue Sep 19, 2023 3:41 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95397

Re: PP Mistakes

I wouldn’t go by other countries
I live in America and Any foreign investing I do is thru American companies

We can also say a Japanese investor would have done very well investing in America
by mathjak107
Tue Sep 19, 2023 10:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95397

Re: PP Mistakes

nope . 100 years was enough time time for me to go no other way but 100% equities in my accumulation years.. it always made little sense to me to mitigate short term dips as a long term investor with other less capable assets ,permanently hurting my longterm returns . retirement is something else …i...
by mathjak107
Tue Sep 19, 2023 10:31 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95397

Re: PP Mistakes

but risk did show up . we have had crashes including losing 24% in one day , wars , the collapse of the savings and loans , the great recession, covid shutting the world down , the collapse of the dot coms , recessions , etc. those returns were with all the risk showing up. if it wasn’t for that fa...
by mathjak107
Tue Sep 19, 2023 5:33 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95397

Re: PP Mistakes

but risk did show up . we have had crashes including losing 24% in one day , wars , the collapse of the savings and loans , the great recession, covid shutting the world down , the collapse of the dot coms , recessions , etc. those returns were with all the risk showing up. if it wasn’t for that fac...
by mathjak107
Fri Sep 08, 2023 2:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP Mistakes
Replies: 43
Views: 95397

Re: PP Mistakes

the swings at times with the pp have been higher at times when 3 of the 4 assets are moving together , has been greater then most conventional portfolio moves . i can’t say stomach for swings is any less with the pp. in fact pp users tend to be more conservative and have lower pucker factor to start...
by mathjak107
Mon Sep 04, 2023 2:59 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100242

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

when we look at gold priced in other currencies it did pretty well against some of them . in india as an example Gold Returns The return from gold from 20 years has been 12%, whereas, in 15 and 10 years, it has been 10.3% and 7.5% respectively. Interestingly, in one year, Gold has outperformed all a...
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 02, 2023 4:10 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100242

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

gold is the dollars competitor .

as long as the dollar is strong a crises is going to see the dollar win over gold as the place to be
by mathjak107
Sat Sep 02, 2023 4:08 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656235

Re: The GOLD scream room

actually over most time frames equities and gold has beaten equities and bonds for more than 2 decades …if anything i wouldn’t single gold out for spending .

kind of crazy that bonds which pays interest have not kept up with equities and gold as far as a balanced portfolio goes
by mathjak107
Mon Aug 14, 2023 4:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29870

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

kitces did a nice article on how the year you were born effects your outcome

https://www.kitces.com/blog/birth-year- ... l-returns/
by mathjak107
Mon Aug 14, 2023 2:50 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29870

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

independent cycles are pretty irrelevant. they are as close to showing not much difference as monte carlo testing does . monte carlo testing can find a slight worse case outcome sometimes but not much more the fact is every time frame is based on what happened in the time frame before it . historica...
by mathjak107
Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:58 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29870

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...
by mathjak107
Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29870

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date . 67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with . this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw You willing to bet you'd not be in that 10%? That ...
by mathjak107
Sat Aug 12, 2023 3:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29870

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

a 60/40 has ended 30 years with more then one started with 90% of all 123 rolling 30 year cycles to date .

67% of the time it ended with 2x what you started with , and 50% of the time 3x what you ended with .

this is at a 4% inflation adjusted draw
by mathjak107
Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:47 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29870

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

base rate is 1.86% so it is an assumption that the inflation kicker will generate the rest ..but lower inflation expectations will see that kicker fall
by mathjak107
Wed Aug 09, 2023 3:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29870

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

if it don’t sound right it usually aint. ha ha
by mathjak107
Wed Aug 09, 2023 2:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29870

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

you are correct .tips are not returning 4%. this whole premise is flawed. when i inquired in april about how tip returns are calculated because of the high yields posted , jack bowers from fidelity insight wrote me back Matt, When the SEC implemented a bunch of rules for reporting yield-to-maturity ...
by mathjak107
Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:17 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 29870

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

the flaw here is there is still a considerable amount of sequence risk at work . it takes at least a 2% real return the first 15 years of a 30 year retirement for 4% inflation adjusted to hold . tips have performed poorly despite the higher inflation because of rising rates.. they may have a very ha...
by mathjak107
Sun Jul 30, 2023 4:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Attention! Mathjak!!!!
Replies: 19
Views: 2099

Re: Attention! Mathjak!!!!

TLT AT 105.75 as an average cost, down a little but considering it fell from 165 not down much.

long term holders got crushed