Search found 1102 matches

by flyingpylon
Thu Jun 22, 2023 6:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Do you listen to Scott Adams?
Replies: 25
Views: 17141

Re: Do you listen to Scott Adams?

I would say once in a great while. I do read his tweets, that’s all I have time for.
by flyingpylon
Wed May 24, 2023 9:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Replies: 9
Views: 3318

Re: Past performance is no guarantee of future results

My question is, for the purposes of financial planning, how do you estimate your future investment returns? The whole thing just seems like a crapshoot, which I guess it is at some level. Personally, I just take the Baseline Return as detailed here => https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/long-term...
by flyingpylon
Wed May 24, 2023 5:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Replies: 9
Views: 3318

Past performance is no guarantee of future results

Everyone should be familiar with the phrase in the subject line. My question is, for the purposes of financial planning, how do you estimate your future investment returns? Say you’ve identified an asset allocation that has returned an average of 10% nominal over the last 50 years ( std dev 8.8 ). Y...
by flyingpylon
Fri May 19, 2023 8:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Buy gold now?
Replies: 13
Views: 10498

Re: Buy gold now?

dualstow wrote:
Fri May 19, 2023 6:58 am
Doesn’t shine when it should
— totally agree, Barrett.
Does gold have an obligation to shine when people want/expect it to?

It shines when it does. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
by flyingpylon
Wed May 17, 2023 9:31 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking
Replies: 10
Views: 2707

Re: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking

The article is fine as far as it goes but this last paragraph was kind of just thrown in as an aside: "We didn’t cover the nuances involved with spousal benefits, dependent benefits, or survivor benefits. These auxiliary benefits could impact your filing decision in either direction, and coordinati...
by flyingpylon
Tue May 16, 2023 12:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking
Replies: 10
Views: 2707

Re: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking

Not sure I would give it such high praise, but the emphasis on SS as insurance would be helpful to a lot of people.
by flyingpylon
Wed May 03, 2023 12:07 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Home Equity / Reverse Mortgages
Replies: 0
Views: 1702

Home Equity / Reverse Mortgages

I'm curious to know if anyone is (or has considered) using home equity as a more active part of their retirement income strategy, beyond just the typical asset of last resort or legacy asset. A case can be made that a tool like a reverse mortgage (and more specifically a reverse mortgage line of cre...
by flyingpylon
Fri Apr 14, 2023 12:43 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74346

Re: How much to save for retirement

On that subject, throughout history, people's children have been the original old-age/retirement system, and in many ways they still are. This seems to be a big part of what people on this board say they're doing with their own parents. If that's not your plan because you don't have kids, or your k...
by flyingpylon
Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:27 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74346

Re: How much to save for retirement

I could write volumes on the issue of tort litigation, but cutting to the chase, the idea of huge jury verdicts in nursing home cases is a myth. The one plaintiff's case in which I was involved led me to do a comprehensive review of past jury verdicts in care facilities, and the awards in even the ...
by flyingpylon
Sun Apr 09, 2023 11:51 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74346

Re: How much to save for retirement

Take it as inside information from a former hospital administrator, hospital CFO and nursing home administrator, licensed in two states. If I told you the average person is spending closer to $20-$30K/year out of pocket for elder care, even with dementia, would that seem reasonable to you? (Out of ...
by flyingpylon
Fri Apr 07, 2023 7:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74346

Re: How much to save for retirement

All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re going to end up with whatever we end up with. People have been retiring that way forever. That they have. But several things are different now. First, people are living longer while getting substantially less healthy. That means far more time spent n...
by flyingpylon
Fri Apr 07, 2023 6:20 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74346

Re: How much to save for retirement

All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re going to end up with whatever we end up with. People have been retiring that way forever. To be pedantic…is that true? My speculation is that voluntary retirement is a modern construct. I meant “for as long as people have been retiring”, not literall...
by flyingpylon
Thu Apr 06, 2023 9:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74346

Re: How much to save for retirement

Seems like the answer to “how much to save for retirement” is always the same as how much the rich should pay in taxes: “more”. If you think you have it all figured out, someone will make you aware of some new reason that no, actually you’re doomed. All any of us can do is to do our best and we’re g...
by flyingpylon
Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:24 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: TikTok ban thoughts?
Replies: 26
Views: 19398

Re: TikTok ban thoughts?

TikTok is more dangerous as a tool of persuasion than of espionage. The US Government doesn't like tools of persuasion that they can't control (and apparently they haven't figured out how to profit from it) hence they want to ban it. I don't use TikTok. Part of me says it shouldn't be banned outrigh...
by flyingpylon
Sun Mar 26, 2023 7:00 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: in depth review of golden butterfly
Replies: 21
Views: 12532

Re: in depth review of golden butterfly

This is just “SEO Content” designed to perform well with search engines. There’s no real analysis. The goal is to attract people searching for various investment strategies and convert them to a paid membership.
by flyingpylon
Fri Mar 24, 2023 11:10 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Re: I'M OUT!
Replies: 22
Views: 3991

Re: I'M OUT!

If the stock market was dropping 50% and the "outlook" for stocks was not bright, would you sell all of your remaining stock holdings, potentially at a loss, and pile into whatever was doing well at the moment? I tried that in 2008, and it didn't work out well; in fact, that's what led me to the PP...
by flyingpylon
Sat Mar 18, 2023 11:39 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Twitter Files
Replies: 163
Views: 55758

Re: The Twitter Files

What I was trying to say is that if enough people believe the lies for enough time, the damage is done and at some point it's too late to undo it. The narrative engineers know this. They don't care, they don't admit fault, they're not ashamed, they just move on to the next false narrative. Some peop...
by flyingpylon
Sat Mar 18, 2023 7:50 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Twitter Files
Replies: 163
Views: 55758

Re: The Twitter Files

It might take a while for this knowledge to percolate through (it will definitely be fought by corporate media/Democratic Party), but I think eventually most people will come to grips with it. In what timeframe? Reminds me of the saying “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solv...
by flyingpylon
Tue Feb 07, 2023 11:04 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Dems Set Some of the Darnedest Precedents
Replies: 44
Views: 7734

Re: The Dems Set Some of the Darnedest Precedents

D vs R is the wrong framing for most issues these days.
by flyingpylon
Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:24 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond
Replies: 31
Views: 19896

Re: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond

Here's what you do: Read Tyler's excellent article on bond convexity! High Profits at Low Rates: The Benefits of Bond Convexity Read it multiple times if necessary, that's what I do. It depends on the role long-term bonds play in your portfolio, but it may make you wonder if you should buy more now ...
by flyingpylon
Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:46 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Replies: 40
Views: 33589

Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.

Some people say that the Fed's inflation target is actually a 2% average over time , the duration of which remains a mystery. So the Fed will hold interest rates higher for longer than many people expect. This is the speech that's often cited, by John C Williams of the New York Fed on 11/30/2018. M...
by flyingpylon
Thu Feb 02, 2023 7:28 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Replies: 40
Views: 33589

Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.

Some people say that the Fed's inflation target is actually a 2% average over time, the duration of which remains a mystery. So the Fed will hold interest rates higher for longer than many people expect.
by flyingpylon
Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:47 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: The Twitter Files
Replies: 163
Views: 55758

Re: The Twitter Files

Holy smoke, it's all broken wide open. There is absolutely no surviving this by the dems. They're done. Right now. https://rumble.com/v27yyq2-joe-biden-is-a-foreign-agent-the-case-is-closed-ep.-1941-the-dan-bongino-sh.html?mref=16emn&mc=6kk5f Well... don't get yourself too invested in potential out...
by flyingpylon
Sun Jan 29, 2023 8:22 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Coronavirus General Discussion
Replies: 5196
Views: 1777433

Re: Coronavirus General Discussion

I dont necessarily object to gain of function research. But its interesting how this story was scrubbed for several days, and how most of family will never hear about it. People are living in different realities if they dont seek out contrarian news sources. When everyone had to read NYtimes, WSJ e...