Search found 945 matches

by KevinW
Wed Jul 13, 2016 8:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Scott Burns' Co on the PP
Replies: 56
Views: 30508

Re: Scott Burns' Co on the PP

The comparison of the 60/40 returns to the 25x4 PP indeed isn't fair, because the owner of the 60/40 needs to hold cash. How much isn't clear, but most would recommend a sizeable enough chunk that it's a significant fraction of the stock/bond portfolio. Hear, hear. The time spent accumulating the c...
by KevinW
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vanguard Sucks
Replies: 19
Views: 9349

Re: Vanguard Sucks

What's the advantage of a mutual fund over an ETF again? Price is less volatile - don't have to pay extra to ensure 'market' price is really 'market' price. Also, when you buy funds directly from the sponsor (Vanguard), there is slightly less counterparty risk since there is no stock exchange in th...
by KevinW
Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:27 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Vanguard Sucks
Replies: 19
Views: 9349

Re: Vanguard Sucks

Their stated philosophy is to minimize complexity and transaction costs. They'd rather have you lump everything into one fund-of-funds, or maybe a three-fund portfolio. The only workarounds are things I expect you've already decided not to do: streamline to fewer funds, replace some of the individua...
by KevinW
Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:54 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Engineering Your Own SHY
Replies: 18
Views: 12469

Re: Engineering Your Own SHY

Kbg wrote:I think it looks like breakeven to maybe even a bit more expensive to do the ladder vs. SHY given my likely trade size. And certainly SHY wins in the hassle factor category.
Yeah, that's my feeling. The ladder works and people who use it are not wrong, but for me it's not worth the hassle.
by KevinW
Fri Jul 01, 2016 6:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Oh Come On
Replies: 109
Views: 43635

Re: Oh Come On

So when the portfolio goes down for a few days, people complain bitterly and need reassurance. And when the portfolio goes up for a few days, people complain bitterly and need reassurance. Maybe you guys need a therapist more than you need an Internet forum. :P I kid, but seriously: the PP is having...
by KevinW
Fri Jul 01, 2016 1:03 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Engineering Your Own SHY
Replies: 18
Views: 12469

Re: Engineering Your Own SHY

Couldn't you just avoid that by only buying on the run issues? AFAIK yes, but I don't know whether any brokers allow you to buy bills at auction commission free. You can buy auction bills through Treasury Direct but that's taxable only. Also there's the issue of what you do with idle cash in betwee...
by KevinW
Fri Jul 01, 2016 12:56 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Engineering Your Own SHY
Replies: 18
Views: 12469

Re: Engineering Your Own SHY

BTW, it's not through that Investing In Bonds site... that's just a click through to Morningstar where you can input your CUSIP. Now anyways, according to them, the last trade (on the day I bought it for 100.74) was 100.72. The day before it was 100.62, so it probably was trading between 100.62 and...
by KevinW
Thu Jun 30, 2016 7:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Brexit Schmexit
Replies: 7
Views: 4444

Re: Brexit Schmexit

The Brexit affair, and the news coverage and market responses to it, are a good case study for a lot of Harry Browne's ideas.
by KevinW
Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:51 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Engineering Your Own SHY
Replies: 18
Views: 12469

Re: Engineering Your Own SHY

Kriegsspiel wrote:What is the 1% markup in? The yield?
Please see the article I linked. When you buy a bond through a broker, the broker buys it from someone else and then sells it to you at a higher price. That markup is usually undisclosed, so it's difficult to know what exactly it is.
by KevinW
Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Engineering Your Own SHY
Replies: 18
Views: 12469

Re: Engineering Your Own SHY

Unfortunately the markup is not so easy to find: http://www.forbes.com/2009/02/26/munis-spreads-markups-personal-finance_investing_ideas_bond_brokers.html Generally, a 1% to 2% markup is acceptable for retail buyers. Unfortunately, exaggerated markups (over 5%) occur more often with uninformed inves...
by KevinW
Thu Jun 30, 2016 5:09 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Engineering Your Own SHY
Replies: 18
Views: 12469

Re: Engineering Your Own SHY

Essentially "yes." You can buy individual Treasury bills, either through Treasury Direct or through a brokerage with free T-bill trades. This approach has the benefit of avoiding the counterparty risk from a fund. The problem is that small retail investors pay a hidden transaction cost in the bid-as...
by KevinW
Mon May 09, 2016 1:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Latest Asset Class Returns vs The Average Investor
Replies: 12
Views: 7415

Re: Latest Asset Class Returns vs The Average Investor

It's sad to see that the average investor would have done better to put all their money into 3 month treasuries and a house.  Harry Browne at one point suggested that very plan for people who couldn't cope with the Permanent Portfolio structure. This is the reason that I think Dave Ramsey's investi...
by KevinW
Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent portfolio accumulation and capital addition
Replies: 33
Views: 16373

Re: Permanent portfolio accumulation and capital addition

I agree with Sophie's analysis, but FWIW I follow Browne's advice, direct all contributions to cash, and follow the plain 15/35 rebalance rule. One reason is my desire to stay disciplined about not going down the slippery slope of changing the PP bit by bit until it stops being a PP. Another reason ...
by KevinW
Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:37 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Not many options in company's 401(k) plan
Replies: 4
Views: 3221

Re: Not many options in company's 401(k) plan

Another option: build one complete portfolio in your 401k and another in your taxable space. Taxable can be a by-the-book 4x25 PP with no compromises. For now, 401k can be a conservative Boglehead-style portfolio, something like 30% stock index and 70% total bond index. Most people change employers ...
by KevinW
Fri Feb 19, 2016 11:28 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Alternatives to Physical Gold
Replies: 11
Views: 6917

Re: Alternatives to Physical Gold

IMO, in this scenario IAU is the lesser of evils. But physical gold is better.
by KevinW
Mon Feb 15, 2016 5:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The fifth economic pattern
Replies: 14
Views: 8182

Re: The fifth economic pattern

IMO, we are transitioning between one of the four conditions. Since we are "in neutral" it is difficult to tell which condition prevails, if any. But in the future, with the benefit of hindsight, it will be clear that we were transitioning into one of the four existing conditions.
by KevinW
Mon Feb 15, 2016 4:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Acceptable Bond ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 5622

Re: Acceptable Bond ETFs

Quick terminology recap: Maturity is simply the amount of time remaining before a bond matures. Duration is a more complex measure of how sensitive a bond is to interest rate changes. It is a function of maturity and several other factors. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/maturity.asp http://www....
by KevinW
Wed Feb 10, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?
Replies: 21
Views: 10089

Re: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?

My retirement plan is to both own a home outright, and also to have a PP that is large enough to comfortably cover all remaining living expenses. I view these as separate projects, and am trying to time things so that they are both complete at about the same time. So my mortgage situation and portfo...
by KevinW
Fri Jan 08, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%
Replies: 9
Views: 7170

Re: Average Investor Return for 2015 was -3.09%

It's good to keep perspective!
by KevinW
Mon Jan 04, 2016 1:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tilt due to taxes?
Replies: 15
Views: 7821

Re: Tilt due to taxes?

Mark Leavy is right about the stock PP being pretty tax-efficient, which is good, but doesn't leave much room for improvement. My advice (similar to Mark's) is: - Use the default 15/35 bands and never pre-emptively rebalance. - Use a dollar-stable fund for cash transactions to minimize taxable event...
by KevinW
Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:25 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Vanguard reopens Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX)
Replies: 6
Views: 5991

Vanguard reopens Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX)

Due to some SEC mumbo-jumbo, Vanguard is reopening its Federal Money Market Fund (VMFXX) and making it more PP-friendly: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/announcement-062015 The fund... will be required to hold 99.5% (up from 80%) of assets in cash, government securities, and/or rep...
by KevinW
Sun Dec 13, 2015 1:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Did Harry Browne consider this flaw in his strategy?
Replies: 41
Views: 21933

Re: Did Harry Browne consider this flaw in his strategy?

My $.02, keep it simple, use a plain-vanilla 4x25 PP, and direct your energies toward things other than optimizing your investments. For typical working- and middle-class households with portfolios below the multi-million mark, spending time and energy improving investment returns is less effective ...
by KevinW
Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:49 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Role of gold in absence of inflation
Replies: 37
Views: 14234

Re: Role of gold in absence of inflation

Thanks guys. I think sometimes critics of the PP fail to understand that, unlike most other investment strategies, the PP tries to work on both a mathematical financial engineering level, and also a psychological level. An optimized allocation is one thing, but a regimen that imperfect human beings ...
by KevinW
Wed Sep 16, 2015 12:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Role of gold in absence of inflation
Replies: 37
Views: 14234

Re: Role of gold in absence of inflation

The primary sources (Browne's books and podcasts) talk about how the gold bullion allocation is an all-else-fails backup in case your local economy stops working for you. Hyperinflation is one failure mode, but there are others. As a thought experiment, put yourself in the position of a Syrian refug...