Search found 1982 matches

by barrett
Sat May 27, 2023 3:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
Replies: 28
Views: 9027

Re: Is anyone else buying TIPS?

And yet about half of the time TIPS held to maturity are going to beat nominal treasuries of the same maturity, right? Not sure how the government manipulating inflation figures changes that. As kbg pointed out a while back, we don't seem to talk as much about government manipulation of inflation da...
by barrett
Thu May 25, 2023 10:38 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Replies: 9
Views: 3343

Re: Past performance is no guarantee of future results

Hi Barrett, It's possible that this is something different than what you are referencing, but I recently discovered and have been using the planner calculator at this site: https://i-orp.com/Plans/extended.html I have found it to be very helpful. That's great that you've found it still works, snedg...
by barrett
Thu May 25, 2023 4:10 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Replies: 9
Views: 3343

Re: Past performance is no guarantee of future results

Back when I used the i-ORP extended planner calculator to run simulations (the earth's surface was mostly just molten lava then), I would assume a real rate of return of 2%. So I used a nominal return of 4% and an inflation rate of 2%. Alas, that calculator doesn't seem to be working anymore. I read...
by barrett
Wed May 24, 2023 1:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
Replies: 28
Views: 9027

Is anyone else buying TIPS?

I know TIPS are not really part of the PP but I have been buying some in my tax-deferred account as a sort of liability matching/planned withdrawal strategy between now and when I start taking SS at age 70 in 2028. I am curious if anyone else here has been buying them with the real yields currently ...
by barrett
Fri May 19, 2023 3:23 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Buy gold now?
Replies: 13
Views: 10552

Re: Buy gold now?

I think I’ll wait until after the debt crisis is over. Yeah, it's such a weird asset. Doesn't shine when it should. These congressional shenanigans should be pushing gold higher. But, then again, I think we all know that it's a manufactured "crisis". Whenever gold dips below $2,000 that standard ca...
by barrett
Thu May 18, 2023 2:42 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How To Build A Bond Ladder
Replies: 24
Views: 32022

Re: How To Build A Bond Ladder

Seriously, Vinny. Please lay off posting for a few hours at least. Not sure what you are trying to do by starting a million new threads and posting in every other one. Enough is enough.
by barrett
Thu May 18, 2023 5:57 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders Says The 'Fed Put' Looks Dead
Replies: 22
Views: 20873

Re: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders Says The 'Fed Put' Looks Dead

Hey glennds, I appreciate the lengthy post but haven't had time to follow up. One thing you've accomplished is to get this idea into my head that inflatable characters can be seen as a sort of metaphor for inflation. Yesterday I saw one and all I could think of was inflation/deflation and how the wh...
by barrett
Wed May 17, 2023 4:44 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking
Replies: 10
Views: 2715

Re: Maximize your Social Security benefits by changing your thinking

The article is fine as far as it goes but this last paragraph was kind of just thrown in as an aside: "We didn’t cover the nuances involved with spousal benefits, dependent benefits, or survivor benefits. These auxiliary benefits could impact your filing decision in either direction, and coordinatio...
by barrett
Tue May 16, 2023 5:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders Says The 'Fed Put' Looks Dead
Replies: 22
Views: 20873

Re: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders Says The 'Fed Put' Looks Dead

Think about how many Goldman Sachs alumni have populated the Fed and Treasury Department over recent years. Ask yourself whether Goldman and the community of mega hedge funds have any particular influence, and whether it is a coincidence that easy money policy has been super lucrative for them. Tha...
by barrett
Mon May 15, 2023 12:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders Says The 'Fed Put' Looks Dead
Replies: 22
Views: 20873

Re: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders Says The 'Fed Put' Looks Dead

The Fed's dual mandate is to control inflation and strive for something close to full employment. That's the official story, yes. Just like the official mandate of the Supreme Court is to ensure the American people the promise of equal justice under law. Hey glennds, Would you mind expanding on thi...
by barrett
Sun May 14, 2023 5:12 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders Says The 'Fed Put' Looks Dead
Replies: 22
Views: 20873

Re: Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders Says The 'Fed Put' Looks Dead

I guess "experts" have to have opinions but I'm not sure this one amounts to much. The Fed's dual mandate is to control inflation and strive for something close to full employment. In many cases, like 2008 & 2020, that involves cutting interest rates quickly. So that will usually benefit stocks, rea...
by barrett
Thu May 11, 2023 5:28 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20446

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Having said that, there is an interesting asset class that seems to act almost like "risk-be-gone powder" that can be sprinkled on pretty much any portfolio and watch the maxDD and volatility go down without anything near the commensurate decrease in returns....unfortunately I at the moment only ha...
by barrett
Mon May 08, 2023 4:21 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: iBonds / TreasuryDirect
Replies: 3
Views: 2923

Re: iBonds / TreasuryDirect

Thanks for posting this Dieter. Reminded me to login to check out the new & enhanced site. Is it just me or has the site overall gotten even worse recently? There used to be a section that listed the fixed rates of I-Bonds all the way back to inception. It looks like one can only go back to 2018 now...
by barrett
Sun May 07, 2023 5:13 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
Replies: 33
Views: 14719

Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23

In the comments section of here: https://tipswatch.com/2022/07/04/looking-to-put-cash-to-work-consider-short-term-treasury-bills/ Read this: " I’d like to put $20K somewhere with a decent return before I spend it on purchasing I-Bonds in January (10K for my individual account and 10K for sole propr...
by barrett
Sat May 06, 2023 11:23 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
Replies: 33
Views: 14719

Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23

In the comments section of here: https://tipswatch.com/2022/07/04/looking-to-put-cash-to-work-consider-short-term-treasury-bills/ Read this: " I’d like to put $20K somewhere with a decent return before I spend it on purchasing I-Bonds in January (10K for my individual account and 10K for sole propr...
by barrett
Sat May 06, 2023 4:59 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: I-Bond sale calculator
Replies: 2
Views: 1519

Re: I-Bond sale calculator

Does anybody know of a calculator to assist with selling I-Bonds? On the TD page it shows me the date each was issued, and the interest rate it's currently earning. It isn't clear how that interacts with the 3-month interest rate penalty, nor does it tell me what the composite vs fixed rate is for ...
by barrett
Thu May 04, 2023 4:44 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
Replies: 33
Views: 14719

Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23

Barret, Hal posted the following link in a different thread, that has some timeframes, compared to existing rate of 0.4% https://tipswatch.com/2023/04/14/i-bond-dilemma-buy-in-april-buy-in-may-or-dont-buy-at-all/ So, less than three years for mine that have less than 0.4% fixed rate Ah, good, so yo...
by barrett
Wed May 03, 2023 4:11 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
Replies: 33
Views: 14719

Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23

I’m not planning to buy new, but I may “swap” (sell and buy new) older iBonds, as most of mine have a 0% fixed rate (one has 0.2% I think) Not that I have much, but, as I have space, I might as well get that extra 0.9% (even with any tax implications of selling existing iBonds, I _think_ worth it) ...
by barrett
Sun Apr 30, 2023 9:48 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
Replies: 33
Views: 14719

New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23

It's now official that the new fixed rate for I-Bonds purchased between 5/1/23 and 10/31/23 is .9%. And the composite rate is 4.3%. Here is the Treasury Direct page: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/savings-bonds/i-bonds/ I don't think I will be a buyer during this cycle but it sure is good to see a b...
by barrett
Fri Apr 28, 2023 6:16 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: Good piece on cash by Cullen Roche
Replies: 11
Views: 5748

Re: Good piece on cash by Cullen Roche

The only thing Roche doesn't address here is the possibility of a default in the next few months due to the debt ceiling circular firing squad antics in Congress. Because of that I'm going to wait to pull the trigger on locking in some high yields with a T Bill ladder until after the clown car has ...
by barrett
Thu Apr 06, 2023 5:17 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status
Replies: 34
Views: 24817

Re: Hedging Against U.S. Dollar Losing Global Reserve Status

What would Harry Browne do in this situation? Increase our gold allocation? Add an allocation to international stocks, and if so, how much and which sectors? Decrease our allocation to long-term Treasuries? What about short-term Treasuries? Just kind of stating the obvious, probably, but if the USD...
by barrett
Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:39 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB
Replies: 19
Views: 6714

Re: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB

stuper1, that is a really nice set up if one of your concerns is your wife not rebalancing. Those three funds (VBIAX, VWENX & VWIAX) all have a good mix of stocks & bonds. They kick off a lot of dividends & interest but there are obviously no tax consequences as they are all in either tax-deferred o...
by barrett
Mon Apr 03, 2023 5:11 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How much to save for retirement
Replies: 101
Views: 74680

Re: How much to save for retirement

Re: the CCRC: it sounds like once you're in there's no way out, and if the place starts going downhill you might want a way out. And if all those folks really are captive, there's no incentive for it not to go downhill. Is there any protection against that? Pretty sure that is not the case. You can...
by barrett
Mon Apr 03, 2023 5:04 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB
Replies: 19
Views: 6714

Re: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB

I assume boglerdude and Vinny are both reacting to my "simple" portfolio and not joypog's spreadsheet. When I read your replies I was reminded of a funny exchange I had with a friend years ago where we were both claiming that we did very little lawn maintenance. We then proceeded to list the "few" t...
by barrett
Sun Apr 02, 2023 5:10 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB
Replies: 19
Views: 6714

Re: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB

I share you concerns about complexity for my wife in the likely event that I kick well before she does. She has her Solo 401k and Solo 401k Roth with Etrade because Fidelity won't support the Roth side of those accounts. All of our other stuff is with Fidelity with the exception of bank accounts and...