Search found 1365 matches

by stuper1
Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:05 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer
Replies: 131
Views: 60787

Re: Renewable electricity sources are now a no-brainer

What if it's a big hoax, and we create an even bigger national and global government for nothing?

Having said that, I have nothing against green energy, as long as it makes sense after considering all externalities.
by stuper1
Sat Jan 07, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis
Replies: 10
Views: 6894

Re: Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis

What does Rickards have to say about paper gold versus physical gold?
by stuper1
Tue Dec 13, 2016 6:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161429

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Interest rates are probably going to rise soon, or at least stop falling. How long have we been hearing that? It sounds like your crystal ball is a lot clearer than mine. Could you please give us a date fixed? Have you seen where long-bond yields are at in other countries? Is there some reason that...
by stuper1
Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Russia and the US
Replies: 22
Views: 13861

Re: Russia and the US

We're 15 years out from 9/11. The war machine needs to find some new bogeymen.
by stuper1
Mon Dec 12, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161429

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Interest rates are probably going to rise soon, or at least stop falling. How long have we been hearing that? It sounds like your crystal ball is a lot clearer than mine. Could you please give us a date fixed? Have you seen where long-bond yields are at in other countries? Is there some reason that...
by stuper1
Wed Dec 07, 2016 12:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New to Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 45
Views: 30984

Re: New to Permanent Portfolio

The thing to do is look back at a long-term graph of PP real returns (i.e., adjusted for inflation). First, make sure that you are comfortable with the long-term results. Then, look at the recent short-term results and compare them to previous down times, and I'm pretty sure that what you will find ...
by stuper1
Sun Dec 04, 2016 4:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Recent article on PP
Replies: 13
Views: 9450

Re: Recent article on PP

Kbg, In theory, I agree with you. In practice, all I can say is that I would be light-years ahead if I had discovered the PP in my 20s. I'm now in my 50s. My problem, and that of most other people, was that I would buy when things were up and sell when things were down, instead of vice versa. The PP...
by stuper1
Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:02 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Recent article on PP
Replies: 13
Views: 9450

Re: Recent article on PP

And are there any more advantages of the PP that he missed? Yes, he missed a potentially big advantage of the PP, which is physical gold. Like most of these people, he assumes that the party will go on forever, whereas looking historically that has never happened before. At some point the party wil...
by stuper1
Tue Nov 15, 2016 11:34 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Stocks for sell time horizon in May? (High school Economics project)
Replies: 8
Views: 5042

Re: Stocks for sell time horizon in May? (High school Economics project)

Maybe try a Dogs of the Dow approach. Look for high-quality stocks that have been down for the past 12 months and are due for a return toward the mean.
by stuper1
Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:59 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Lifestyle Design - where to live
Replies: 36
Views: 19957

Re: Lifestyle Design - where to live

MachineGhost wrote:
stuper1 wrote:
Kriegsspiel wrote:Or a cult, commune, or convent?
Moving to southeast Idaho would be pretty close to that, if you ask me.
Why???
There's a large Mormon population in that area. Not everyone of course. Very red state type area. Nice, safe area. I really can't picture you fitting in very well.
by stuper1
Thu Nov 10, 2016 6:26 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Lifestyle Design - where to live
Replies: 36
Views: 19957

Re: Lifestyle Design - where to live

Kriegsspiel wrote:Or a cult, commune, or convent?
Moving to southeast Idaho would be pretty close to that, if you ask me.
by stuper1
Thu Nov 10, 2016 3:21 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Lifestyle Design - where to live
Replies: 36
Views: 19957

Re: Lifestyle Design - where to live

I grew up in Boise in the 1970s and 1980s. It's grown a lot since then. It has a very vibrant downtown and a nice river that goes right through the city. It's a very outdoorsy oriented place but with a good amount of culture also. To me, the best place to live is close to downtown. You can walk or b...
by stuper1
Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:46 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Red state Blue state
Replies: 33
Views: 12460

Re: Red state Blue state

My brother lives in Bend. I've only visited. Is it expensive as compared to California coastal cities, or only as compared to say Toledo?
by stuper1
Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:07 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Red state Blue state
Replies: 33
Views: 12460

Re: Red state Blue state

Bend, Oregon is a nice, smallish, hip sort of town.
by stuper1
Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis
Replies: 10
Views: 6894

Re: Road to Ruin: The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis

What I tell myself to make myself comfortable with bank storage is that the gold is for re-establishing myself after the panic is over, which may be months down the road, when the banks presumably will have to re-open. The gold won't be much use during the panic itself. What you want during the pani...
by stuper1
Fri Oct 14, 2016 1:01 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Slowly bleeding
Replies: 67
Views: 41730

Re: Slowly bleeding

There was a controversial guy who used to post on here whose portfolio was basically 50% stocks and 50% gold. He claimed it was less volatile than one might imagine. If you have a fairly long time horizon to ride out some volatility, you might consider that portfolio, since you seem to want to avoid...
by stuper1
Fri Sep 23, 2016 3:13 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Fed Seeks Aggressive LImit on Wall Street Commodity Holdings
Replies: 1
Views: 1007

Fed Seeks Aggressive LImit on Wall Street Commodity Holdings

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... s-itfye706

Would this proposed regulatory change have any effect on small investors like me?
by stuper1
Thu Sep 08, 2016 12:13 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 117
Views: 47839

Re: SCV+Momemtum Permanent Portfolio

Hey InsuranceGuy,

How often do you have to check in on your portfolio with your new strategy? Is it monthly?
by stuper1
Wed Aug 17, 2016 3:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
Replies: 571
Views: 329630

Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?

Kbg, I apologize, because I think I've asked this before, but could you please tell me again. If someone wanted to run one of these portfolios, like the 75/8/8/8 or the 50/17/17/17, how often would they need to check in on things and potentially do a re-balance? Is this something you have to check o...
by stuper1
Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The Olympics
Replies: 57
Views: 25434

Re: The Olympics

I guess i'm nobody then, because i care about brazil. One thing they do really well is music. I say that any culture that can produce music that beautiful can't be all bad. As for the games, count me in as a new rugby fan. What an intense sport. Much better than american football, which i gave up fo...
by stuper1
Thu Jul 28, 2016 9:43 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350566

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Try comparing say 4-year trailing average real returns for the two portfolios with and without gold. I'll bet you'll find that the one with gold is consistently as good or better.
by stuper1
Mon Jul 25, 2016 3:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
Replies: 54
Views: 42285

Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis

I like your PP2 for two reasons: 1. 25% gold just feels like too much to me for an asset that just sits there. I've played around with enough backtesting to see that you don't need that much gold to still get a good diversification effect. 15 - 20% seems about right for my liking. 2. With interest r...
by stuper1
Thu Jul 21, 2016 8:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
Replies: 54
Views: 42285

Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis

ochotona wrote: Just as a general rule, 40% in any one asset is too much. It really doesn't matter what that asset is. Swensen maintains that any one class should be between 5%-30%.
Do you think the Golden Butterfly violates this rule by having 40% in stocks split 20% to large cap and 20% to small value?
by stuper1
Wed Jul 20, 2016 11:39 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis
Replies: 54
Views: 42285

Re: Permanent Portfolio vs. All-Weather - an in-depth analysis

With interest rates where they are now, you'd better have an awfully good crystal ball if you are seriously considering putting 40% of your dough in LTTs. I'm going the other way myself toward the Golden Butterfly approach. 20% in cash, gold, and LTTs seems just about right to me.
by stuper1
Tue Jul 19, 2016 12:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
Replies: 36
Views: 19676

Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me

Try your model with 1/3 in each of stocks, long bonds, and gold. You'll probably like what you see. Although keeping some percentage in cash, maybe 10%, can help with rebalancing. Unfortunately this approach will give you a longer duration in bonds/cash which won't be pretty when rates rise.