Search found 516 matches

by Kevin K.
Sun Oct 08, 2023 9:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

GOVT looks like a really good ETF; thanks for letting us know about it. I really like the fact that it automatically rebalances its holdings by market cap so that the effective duration changes according to the market. I like your phrase "chaos asset" for gold, and I suppose that would also apply to...
by Kevin K.
Sat Oct 07, 2023 9:19 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Thanks barrett and Smith1776 for your thoughtful comments. I think the allocation in the ATP makes a great deal of sense. Intermediate duration has historically been the risk:return sweet spot for bonds; it's just that bond fund managers have stretched the definition of "intermediate" in recent year...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 4:19 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

And for a real eye opener check out what happens if you take a page from the Golden Butterfly and make the stocks half TSM half SCV. Who needs gold or LTT's? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2023&lastMonth...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 4:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Thanks for this. What's the "conventional conservative portfolio" you used? Just the portfolio labeled as "Conservative Portfolio" included in Portfolio Visualizer as a default option. It appears to be a globally diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds at 40/60. Thanks! So here's a comparison of ...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 4:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Yeah I wonder what Craig and Tex would be saying today. One of the reasons why the PP performed so admirably the last time we were in a comparable period was because gold went through the roof. The world may be different, and Browne is not here to update his philosophy. As per Saifedean Ammous, gol...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 12:11 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Above 5% today for the 30-year. :o Yeah, vs. 5.50% for 3 month bills and 5.58% for six month ones. As the article vnatale shared points out, the losses in long treasuries are truly epic. Cullen Roche, whose post I shared when I started this thread, refers to LTT's and gold as "insurance" investment...
by Kevin K.
Fri Oct 06, 2023 9:31 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

Above 5% today for the 30-year. :o Yeah, vs. 5.50% for 3 month bills and 5.58% for six month ones. As the article vnatale shared points out, the losses in long treasuries are truly epic. Cullen Roche, whose post I shared when I started this thread, refers to LTT's and gold as "insurance" investment...
by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 05, 2023 4:04 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 05, 2023 3:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

Re: The Bond Market Sweet Spot

I have my ITT's in Schwab's SCHR ETF, which has an average duration of 5.6 years. Losses were 10.58% in 2022 and are 1.15% YTD. But I have half of my bond position in 3 and 6 month Tbills set on automatic rollover paying 5%+. I'll move all but a couple of years worth of living expenses into SCHR whe...
by Kevin K.
Thu Oct 05, 2023 10:14 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: The Bond Market Sweet Spot
Replies: 22
Views: 18420

The Bond Market Sweet Spot

A typically excellent post from Cullen Roche. I especially appreciate his concept of "escape velocity" (the point where current coupon payments offset the interest rate risk). Makes me very glad I switched to using all 5 year Treasuries in my Golden Butterfly long ago. https://disciplinefunds.com/20...
by Kevin K.
Tue Aug 22, 2023 2:27 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why going "all-in" on TIPS isn't a good idea
Replies: 6
Views: 1242

Re: Why going "all-in" on TIPS isn't a good idea

Yeah I read that too but $1 million is just a big chunk (perhaps most or all) of he and his wife's tax-deferred accounts. Presumably he has a multiple of that in taxable.
by Kevin K.
Tue Aug 22, 2023 8:59 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Why going "all-in" on TIPS isn't a good idea
Replies: 6
Views: 1242

Why going "all-in" on TIPS isn't a good idea

TIPS bonds don't get a lot of love on this forum (though iBonds do, at least of late) but I'm guessing that others have read some of the many posts on Bogleheads and other finance sites extolling the virtues of a 30 year TIPS ladder since it's now possible to construct such a ladder that permits inf...
by Kevin K.
Wed Aug 16, 2023 8:37 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Good post on interest rate "escape velocity"
Replies: 2
Views: 831

Good post on interest rate "escape velocity"

Thought others might enjoy this new post from Cullen Roche:

https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/08/15/ ... -velocity/

IMHO he makes a good case for short and intermediate Treasuries being very attractive.
by Kevin K.
Wed Aug 09, 2023 4:31 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 30012

Re: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

OK the discussion has gone a bit into the weeds so I'll try to bring it back around a bit, John Rekenthaler did a good comparison of TIPS, nominal Treasuries and SPIA'S recently: https://www.morningstar.com/bonds/retirement-income-treasury-bonds-tips-ladders-or-annuities TIPS obviously outperform if...
by Kevin K.
Wed Aug 09, 2023 10:50 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement
Replies: 45
Views: 30012

TIPS Ladder vs. PP/GB in retirement

While TIPS bonds aren't often discussed here they've certainly been a hot topic of late on mainstream forums like Bogleheads and sites such as Morningstar - in part because for the first time in many years it's possible to construct a ladder of them yielding a 4%+ inflation-adjusted safe withdrawal ...
by Kevin K.
Thu Jun 22, 2023 10:24 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350845

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

snedgar wrote:
Wed Jun 21, 2023 12:46 pm
I'm not questioning it, but I can't quite understand how you get +/- 6% by scaling from the HBPP +/-10% bands.

Can somebody (gently) explain the maths?
As I recall it’s 30% of the 20% slice of each asset in the GB.
by Kevin K.
Wed Jun 21, 2023 11:45 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350845

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Yes - 14% and 26% were the consensus recommendation years ago when the GB was introduced. I’ve rarely come close to them in actual practice.
by Kevin K.
Fri May 19, 2023 3:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20457

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

i don’t follow the logic though of the insurance bucket with a 40 plus year duration as a retiree …. first off i wouldn’t say gold has a duration of 40 plus years . you can pick almost any time frame the last 25 years and equities and gold have beaten equities and bonds . so i fail to see the long ...
by Kevin K.
Fri May 19, 2023 9:37 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20457

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Out of curiosity, I compared the Weird Portfolio to one I'd played around with for some time (I call it 25s, or Golden Quarters), a hybrid of the GB and PP, but with more stock allocation, it is 25% TSM, 25% SCV, 25% Gold, 25% ITT. Here it is in PV . It has the same performance as the Weird Portfol...
by Kevin K.
Sat May 13, 2023 9:09 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB
Replies: 19
Views: 6722

Re: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB

OK, so as the OP here's where I ended up after getting a clearer idea of what my spouse's actual comfort level is should she ever have to manage the portfolio. 20% VTI - self-explanatory 20% VBR - a "good enough" SCV choice - admittedly more of a small + mid-cap play vs. AVUV, etc. 20% GLDM (the low...
by Kevin K.
Wed May 10, 2023 2:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20457

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Yes that’s the link to the book. You can either read it online or try printing it out as a PDF but he doesn’t offer it as a download as far as I know.
by Kevin K.
Wed May 10, 2023 9:52 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20457

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

In any event, I'm not sure why anyone would/should expect a portfolio with 25, 30, or 33% equities to perform as well over the very long term as one with 60 or 70 or 100% equities; the only way that even stands a chance of happening IIRC is if the "low equity allocation portfolio" puts all of its e...
by Kevin K.
Wed May 10, 2023 9:32 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20457

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Holy tracking error, Batman! 🙂 Well yeah but unlike the Larry Portfolio or even (dare one say it?) the PP you at least get some return to go with your tracking error. 😏 True enough....but in all fairness, neither the PP nor the Larry Portfolio (in its various incarnations with or without CCFs and/o...
by Kevin K.
Tue May 09, 2023 2:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts
Replies: 28
Views: 20457

Re: The Weird Portfolio - latest from Tyler/Portfolio Charts

Dieter wrote:
Tue May 09, 2023 2:05 pm
Holy tracking error, Batman! 🙂
Well yeah but unlike the Larry Portfolio or even (dare one say it?) the PP you at least get some return to go with your tracking error. 😏