There's an interesting discussion of this post from today over on Bogleheads at the moment: https://humbledollar.com/2020/10/game-over/ I also think it's nicely "bookended" by this somewhat more sophisticated piece from Morningstar: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1003235/four-questio...

I concur with all of your points Tyler and Smith1776 - thanks for your thoughtful posts. As Tyler and others have pointed out, there just isn't enough TIPS data to draw any meaningful conclusion about how they might perform in various economic conditions. Vanguard has a couple of good papers on TIPS...

That's a good catch Mathjak107 - thanks! Other strikes against the Vanguard fund are a pretty inexperienced manager (5 years vs. decades of experience at Baird, Cohen & Steers, etc.) and the fund itself being quite new. Low ER is about it. And yeah, the downside risks when you look under the hoo...

If a current 15.25% YTD return is broken, I'll take it. I hear you! But I think his points about the prospects for LTT's and cash going forward are good ones and echo many recent discussions on these forums. Vanguard recently sent out a letter to its financial advisor network about the performance ...

This post from Adam Collins at Movement Capital is a good follow-up to some of the discussions we've been having on the "Ray Dalio on bonds" thread: https://movement.capital/is-the-permanent-portfolio-broken/ I guess I should say that I mean no offense to PP traditionalists by posting this...

Great stuff as usual ahhrunforthehills! And yeah, we're well on our way with scenario #1 and arguably (according to Dalio anyway) with scenario #4 as well. I really do like the idea of having a rules-based approach and as has been said already in this thread that also applies just as much if not mor...

While I can see where a real return strategy could make sense for some people the Fido fund has anemic (as in 1-3 year plain vanilla corporates) returns and a hefty .75% ER. As far as I know all the risk parity approaches use long duration TIPS. I just don’t see the sense in long-duration Treasuries...

Appreciate all the insights offered in this thread. I don't have anything of substance to contribute to the discussion here other than to share that over the course of the past few years I've invested in Wellesley in addition to the PP, mainly for a bit more diversification (strategy and institutio...

I can see why Jonathan Clements just split his bond allocation into half short-term Treasuries half short-term TIPS. While I can see your point on short-term Treasuries, I can vividly recall couple of paragraphs from Craig's book that are related to TIPS, in essence (+cite): - "Among the risks...

An outstanding post on top of a bunch of other great ones of late ahrunforthehills. Thanks! Taken as a whole your comments and those of mathjak107 here reflect approaches that are deeply informed by Browne’s work while responding to realities he’d never encountered. I know some view any departure fr...

Here's a link to a thread from this site from 10 years ago. Has anything really changed? https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1096&p=11740&hilit=crystal+ball#p11740 Well, kinda. We'd kill for the rates folks here were bitching about in 2011: https://www.macrotre...

My only question would be why go out to 8.5 years in duration for Total Bond Market or even 3 for ST Treasury funds now? Good article on the latter today: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4376259-short-term-treasury-etfs-no-longer-make-investment-sense?utm_source=news.google.com&utm_medium=refer...

The issue there is conflating the All Weather Portfolio, which is the name for a Bridgewater hedge fund that constantly changes it's allocation, with the All Seasons Portfolio, which is what Robinson calls the retail investor set-in-and-forget-it portfolio he came up with after talking with Dalio. A...

OK it looks like we have a solution to the LTT interest rate problem. It pays 3% and comes with a free order of egg rolls and possibly a novel virus.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/25/china-i ... -2021.html

This has turned into an exceptionally high-quality thread thanks to you guys! I'm not ready to "go there" yet but I can see why Jonathan Clements just split his bond allocation into half short-term Treasuries half short-term TIPS. Of course he's anything but a PP'er, with ~33% bonds and ev...

The best article I've seen on ESG investing recently and maybe ever is this recent post from Mr. Money Mustache: https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2020/08/22/socially-responsible-investing/ He asks all the right questions. Not anything I personally am interested in pursuing but I think interest in the...

Thanks Mathjak107 and ahrunforthehills! Wise advice all around.

Thanks Kbg - I needed that! I guess many if not most who post here would say if you're not all-in on the 4 x 25% PP you're not "adhering to the PP framework" but I'm trying to respect Browne's insights while dealing (as we all are) with an interest rate environment he probably couldn't hav...

Exactly right about iBonds. It seems to me that CDs from online banks and places like Navy Federal Credit Union suffer from the same treatment. The 250K FDIC/NCUA limits make them useless for institutional investors and of course brokers can't make money selling them, but at this point earning a saf...

Everything you're saying makes sense to me. What I'm having trouble figuring out is what to replace the PP/GB bond barbell with.

Speaking of Wellesley, here's an interview with two of the fund's managers about how they manage risk:

https://www.morningstar.com/podcasts/the-long-view/75

Thanks Tyler! I was just reading another critique of the All Seasons that pointed out that without inflation protection it isn't truly All Seasons/All Weather. And of course you're right about the YTD return of LTT's But I don't see how 20-25% in LTT's makes sense going forward given both the curren...

It really has been ugly in the markets this week, with all the PP assets except cash tanking in unison. Long term bonds have notably NOT tanked this week. Yeah I misspoke. LTT's haven't tanked they've been flat rather than responding to the equity and gold sell-offs (as mathjak107 pointed out). Sin...

It really has been ugly in the markets this week, with all the PP assets except cash tanking in unison. The video is very good (though I wish it had just been Dalio speaking without the commentary). The CBO report is stunning. As you said mathjak107 I think we're in territory unimagined by Harry Bro...

You're probably right Mark. There are others here who seem to be comfortable with the world of options trading that I thought might get something out of the article but it has no appeal to me. I'd rather hedge the downside with plenty of T-bills and gold. I do think using BSV for a chunk of one's ca...