Search found 1349 matches

by Hal
Sat Dec 31, 2022 3:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 44
Views: 21977

Re: 2022 Returns

Aussie Goldsmith portfolio.
by Hal
Fri Dec 30, 2022 1:49 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Has Anyone Here Bought a Real Estate Contract?
Replies: 6
Views: 684

Re: Has Anyone Here Bought a Real Estate Contract?

With both stocks and bonds in the toilet, with inflation destroying the value of cash, and with interest rates soaring, the idea of becoming a lender is making more and more sense to me. The idea would be to buy a contract from an existing secured lender at a discount, one that provides for the rem...
by Hal
Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:37 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1159
Views: 826149

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

You dont wake up one day and there's a crematorium next door. It takes years of otherizing people and normalizing the quarantine of healthy people and medical treatments at gunpoint. You stand against this now. Coincidentally.... https://www.zerohedge.com/political/aussie-cops-ask-neighbors-rat-out...
by Hal
Wed Dec 28, 2022 1:13 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1230
Views: 588694

Re: YouTube Junkie

by Hal
Fri Dec 23, 2022 1:06 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Would you buy an even longer bond?
Replies: 13
Views: 5191

Re: Would you buy an even longer bond?

Total bond is like 2/3 Treasurys so it could be a substitute except for duration. Its roughly intermediate. The PP is a risk parity portfolio. I don't think it works if you don't get the volatility that LTT's provide in my opinion. +1. The Early Retirement Extreme site covers this issue. <snip> In ...
by Hal
Fri Dec 23, 2022 12:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Huh, 1/N Asset Allocation is Quite Robust
Replies: 12
Views: 3408

Re: Huh, 1/N Asset Allocation is Quite Robust

Interesting to compare a Larry twist - shift bond risk over to the stock (and gold) side, holding more volatile stocks such as Small Cap Value, compared to the PP PV On a Monte Carlo measure ... PV MC Looks safer/better than the PP's PV MC ... worse cases were less bad, average/best cases were bett...
by Hal
Wed Dec 21, 2022 1:05 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Bank Bonuses
Replies: 36
Views: 10845

Re: Bank Bonuses

Bitcoin is speculation, pure and simple. If you want to put it in the VP with money you can afford to lose, go right ahead. <snip> Besides, Superman endorsed savings bonds as part of Truth, Justice, and the American Way. (See the fun episode on youtube) Cryptocurrencies are looking more speculative...
by Hal
Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:06 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Died Suddenly
Replies: 85
Views: 6360

Re: Died Suddenly

I put "documentary" in quotes because it blurs like line between documentary and docu-drama. I'll see if I can dig up a link somewhere, I'm sure it's all over Twitter. But not on the basketball threads, which is why he couldn't find it.... Here you go. https://www.bitchute.com/video/4LIve6zFAa4x/ D...
by Hal
Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:49 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 4.3% SWR for 30 years
Replies: 22
Views: 3430

Re: 4.3% SWR for 30 years

A good, perhaps better choice than the PP is to dump the bonds, just hold 50/50 stock/gold. Viewed from a betting odds perspective and the odds historically were good, create a Callan table of yearly total real gain/loss for each of stock and gold, years best at the top of each year, worst at the b...
by Hal
Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:19 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Cause of aircraft crash?
Replies: 4
Views: 815

Re: Cause of aircraft crash?

by Hal
Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:16 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Casino-Chip Society
Replies: 9
Views: 1172

Re: Casino-Chip Society

Fundamentally money is a human representation of "value" based on "faith" in whatever "made" the money. Personally, I think derivatives terminology is more helpful. Level 0: A real thing (backed by nothing because it exists and is an entity...a cow, land, a hamburger, a car, etc.) Level 1: The USD ...
by Hal
Sun Dec 04, 2022 8:40 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Best passive real estate investments?
Replies: 4
Views: 1664

Re: Best passive real estate investments?

I'm looking to do passive investment in real estate that involves lower-end residential housing/apartment buildings. I'm looking for "lower-end" because it's supposedly more recession-proof than higher-end housing. Are you sure its more recession proof. I cannot comment on lower end US housing but ...
by Hal
Wed Nov 30, 2022 2:26 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1230
Views: 588694

Re: YouTube Junkie

by Hal
Thu Nov 24, 2022 2:32 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: YouTube Junkie
Replies: 1230
Views: 588694

Re: YouTube Junkie

Something Smithy could try with his dog :D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VX1V_96wyk
by Hal
Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:55 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond tutorial
Replies: 1
Views: 1164

Bond tutorial

by Hal
Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:20 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 12
Views: 2651

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

IMHO the principles that Browne offered that are not just sound but brilliant are those related to truly diversifying one's assets beyond stocks and bonds, not investing in things one doesn't understand, being conservative with money one can't afford to lose while also having play money and so on. ...
by Hal
Sat Nov 12, 2022 12:25 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond barbell vs. other options
Replies: 12
Views: 2651

Re: Bond barbell vs. other options

And 2022 has certainly shown - with a vengeance - that those who thought LTT's would zig when equities zagged didn't know their market history. Hi Kevin, Let me pose this question. Do you think the premise the PP was founded on is still valid? That is, LTT's do well in deflation/Gold in Inflation/C...
by Hal
Thu Nov 10, 2022 9:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3688
Views: 1655443

Re: The GOLD scream room

mathjak107 wrote:
Thu Nov 10, 2022 3:42 pm

Other countries where inflation has weakened their currency are seeing nice gold returns .
Gold has done well versus the "Pacific Peso" :D
by Hal
Thu Nov 10, 2022 4:16 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Optimisation - A waste of time?
Replies: 3
Views: 1403

Re: Optimisation - A waste of time?

Kbg wrote:
Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:17 am

My take: useful yes, but not as a means to predict or expect the same outcome in the future.
Just for fun. What a difference a year makes :D
by Hal
Thu Oct 27, 2022 10:38 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Corporate Bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 2824

Re: Corporate Bonds

But...the barbell is what I am looking to get to. Have enough "safe" investments, social security, gold, US bonds, etc, to allow decently higher risk on the other end. Here's a starter I did a while back for Australia. Will be interested to see what you decide on. Not many choices down here, so I a...
by Hal
Thu Oct 27, 2022 6:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Corporate Bonds
Replies: 17
Views: 2824

Re: Corporate Bonds

Would you all agree in terms of risk that corp bonds would fall in the middle here? High Risk to Lower Risk: --Individual common stock --Preferred stock --Stock ETFs/funds --Corp bonds --Muni bonds --CDs/Savings accounts --US Treasuries --Physical gold (not sure it is the lowest risk, just wanted t...
by Hal
Thu Oct 20, 2022 9:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 3409

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

My question was simply this -- do the asset allocations of model portfolios adequately account for such a potential risk? Seems to me that those with a significant weighting to gold might, but that traditional stock/bond portfolios do not. FWIW Agree with you and Jack Jones. However your potential ...
by Hal
Thu Oct 20, 2022 12:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?
Replies: 22
Views: 3409

Re: All-weather portfolios - Further resources?

I've done some reading in my time on passive model portfolios, but in all those books, I honestly don't recall the authors addressing the possibility of sovereign default, with the possible exception of HB. By and large, they seem to take US solvency and credit worthiness as a given, and I don't re...