Search found 75 matches

by stpeter
Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:19 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: How Would The PP Perform In A Global Depression?
Replies: 24
Views: 13168

Re: How Would The PP Perform In A Global Depression?

One thing I know is triple A corporate bonds held up very well during the Great Depression, so that is probably what we'll see when faith in the U.S. government erodes. My recollection is that there was some survivorship bias there: for corporations that didn't go bust, their bonds held up OK. But ...
by stpeter
Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:48 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: GTU Is The Ideal PP ETF
Replies: 31
Views: 17749

Re: GTU Is The Ideal PP ETF

I do the same thing, BBB. Of my paper gold, a fraction is SGOL and the remainder is GTU. I buy SGOL because it's commission-free, and when the GTU discount gets to -8%, I sell all the SGOL and replace it with GTU, on the reasoning that my money is buying more shares, enhancing its purchasing power....
by stpeter
Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:41 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: New Gold Heist: Are you listening, students?
Replies: 5
Views: 3334

Re: New Gold Heist: Are you listening, students?

Goodasgold, you are absolutely right. I googled "safe deposit box insurance" as opposed to gold coin insurance.  Previous threads on this topic fizzled out because it turned out to be very expensive to insure coins.  However, I discovered that it is NOT so expensive to insure safe deposit...
by stpeter
Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:34 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Is The PP Good For Investing?
Replies: 59
Views: 33158

Re: Is The PP Good For Investing?

The yield curve was inverted in 1969 so it may not have made much difference, but the above numbers are for 10 year Treasuries.  There were no 30 years issued then, so perhaps MG's data was extrapolated somehow...with no gold and no Treasury options, the PP in 1969 is a purely mythological beast an...
by stpeter
Wed Dec 31, 2014 10:23 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Mixed Europe/US Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 33
Views: 16500

Re: Mixed Europe/US Permanent Portfolio

As someone who bought in at the top (early 2000) and sold at the bottom (early 2009), I have vowed never to do that again. I went all-cash in 2009 (then did years of research, then last year discovered PP) and I'm not about to put 25% of that into a stock index fund at these levels. Yes, I realize t...
by stpeter
Tue Dec 30, 2014 9:38 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: minimizing gold storage fees
Replies: 5
Views: 3510

Re: minimizing gold storage fees

I think safe deposit boxes are a fine option.  You might want to think about insurance.  See this thread: http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/gold/do-you-insure-your-gold/ That's a super-helpful thread. Thanks for the pointer! BTW, here is an updated link for XL Specialty Insurance: http://xlgroup...
by stpeter
Mon Dec 29, 2014 7:14 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: SGOL Outflows
Replies: 1
Views: 1670

SGOL Outflows

by stpeter
Mon Dec 29, 2014 5:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Do I need a Gold ETF in my PP?
Replies: 7
Views: 3853

Re: Do I need a Gold ETF in my PP?

As far as I can see, the only reason to hold a gold ETF is if you have a lot of money tied up in tax-deferred instruments, such as a 401(k) plan or IRA.
by stpeter
Mon Dec 29, 2014 2:06 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: minimizing gold storage fees
Replies: 5
Views: 3510

Re: minimizing gold storage fees

I haven't bothered with overseas storage, either, and I have Canadian cousins. Still, many of those wiser than me -- pretty much everyone here is -- do recommend it. I pay nothing for my safe deposit box storage just for keeping US$10K in a checking account at the bank. If I open a new box at a dif...
by stpeter
Mon Dec 29, 2014 10:49 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: minimizing gold storage fees
Replies: 5
Views: 3510

minimizing gold storage fees

Having become convinced that PP is the way to go, I am finally getting around to implementation. Naturally, part of that is seeking to minimize fees (e.g., why buy an actively managed stock mutual fund with an expense ratio of 1% or more when I can buy an index fund with an expense ratio of 0.10%?)....
by stpeter
Sun Nov 30, 2014 4:29 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?
Replies: 47
Views: 21752

Re: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?

Few folks here or anywhere else will need to worry about having that much money to invest, but it seems that the long-term ultra-rich (at least those who care about what we might call dynastic wealth) often invest in tangible assets like land and art (and gold, but we've got that covered via PP). D...
by stpeter
Sat Nov 29, 2014 9:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?
Replies: 47
Views: 21752

Re: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?

Few folks here or anywhere else will need to worry about having that much money to invest, but it seems that the long-term ultra-rich (at least those who care about what we might call dynastic wealth) often invest in tangible assets like land and art (and gold, but we've got that covered via PP).
by stpeter
Thu Jan 02, 2014 7:04 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Hussman Says Look Out Below For Stock Market
Replies: 28
Views: 18913

Re: Hussman Says Look Out Below For Stock Market

Strictly speaking, Hussman doesn't make "predictions" about what is about to happen in the market.  What he does is utilize an ensemble of market indicators to identify historical profiles which have or have not been favorable to prospective investors.  His approach is to apply that histo...
by stpeter
Thu Jan 02, 2014 7:01 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Brief Vanguard article - The benefits and risks of owning gold
Replies: 1
Views: 3031

Re: Brief Vanguard article - The benefits and risks of owning gold

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/investing-in-gold Which says, and I quote... Gold has been a part of economic life in many cultures going back thousands of years. As an asset, it tends to be particularly attractive during periods of economic uncertainty or political instability. O...
by stpeter
Sat Dec 28, 2013 8:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cash Need for Living Expenses?
Replies: 28
Views: 19761

Re: Cash Need for Living Expenses?

EdwardjK wrote: The $175K assumes I have to pay Federal and state taxes.  So the net is somewhere between $100 and $125K.
Oh, I prefer not to think of taxes as a voluntary household expense because I'd get too angry and depressed. :-)
by stpeter
Thu Dec 26, 2013 9:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 27085

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

The Japanese 30 year bond rate is currently 1.68%.  While we may never end up where Japan is today, the present rates comparison makes our 3.92% yield look pretty rich.  Oh, and the 10 year bond hit 3% today.  At the beginning of the year, the 10 year rate was 1.86% and the 30 year was at 3.04%.  I...
by stpeter
Thu Dec 26, 2013 7:12 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cash Need for Living Expenses?
Replies: 28
Views: 19761

Re: Cash Need for Living Expenses?

OK, full disclosure.  My wife and I are 57 years old.  She is retiring in 2014.  Our total portfolio is around $6.5M and I estimate we need about $175K per year to live on.  Roughly one third of our portfolio is in tax advantaged accounts.  We have a $317K mortgage balance which I expect to pay off...
by stpeter
Thu Dec 26, 2013 6:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 27085

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

Hi EdwardjK, What I've spent most of my time studying over the last 4+ years has been dividend investing. Only in the last few months have I learned about PP, so I haven't spent all my time dithering over PP. :-) Unfortunately, to me it appears to be a sub-optimal time to go from 100% cash to PP, si...
by stpeter
Thu Dec 26, 2013 4:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?
Replies: 56
Views: 27085

Re: Article: Is the Permanent Portfolio Broken?

Good thread. As someone who is new to PP, I struggle with these questions. I've been 100% cash starting in 2009 (before that I was an uninformed 60/40 investor) and since then I've done a lot of research and reading on possible investment strategies. Recently I've become (mostly) convinced that PP i...
by stpeter
Thu Dec 26, 2013 4:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cash Need for Living Expenses?
Replies: 28
Views: 19761

Re: Cash Need for Living Expenses?

To me, one of the attractions of PP is that you don't need to set aside cash for 6-18 months of living expenses or whatever you're comfortable with - that's just built into the portfolio itself. However, you seem to want even more of a cushion, which I can't argue with since personally I'd prefer to...
by stpeter
Sun Dec 08, 2013 8:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Ideal Overseas Gold Storage Option
Replies: 26
Views: 12947

Re: Ideal Overseas Gold Storage Option

You can open an account in Canada if you'd like. I'm not sure of the requirements now. Many foreign banks want nothing to do with Americans now and that likely includes Canada with the new FATCA rules. But I'm not fully up on the current situation. I'll do some research on the topic and report back...
by stpeter
Sun Dec 08, 2013 6:36 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Ideal Overseas Gold Storage Option
Replies: 26
Views: 12947

Re: Ideal Overseas Gold Storage Option

For folks in America, opening a bank account at a Canadian bank and storing gold in a safe deposit box there would seem to be an effective approach to geographic diversification. I noticed that in an earlier forum thread this option wasn't highly recommended, and it's not really discussed in Rowland...
by stpeter
Sun Dec 08, 2013 5:36 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Canadian safe deposit boxes
Replies: 1
Views: 1398

Canadian safe deposit boxes

For folks in America, opening a bank account at a Canadian bank and storing gold in a safe deposit box there would seem to be an effective approach to geographic diversification. I noticed that in an earlier forum thread this option wasn't highly recommended, and it's not really discussed in Rowland...
by stpeter
Fri Nov 29, 2013 9:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: So how should the PP behave if the U.S....
Replies: 49
Views: 14202

Re: So how should the PP behave if the U.S....

I didn't answer your questions because (1) I don't claim to have the answers :-) and (2) I don't think it's at all likely that the U.S. dollar will lose its reserve currency status. However, it seems to me that the U.S. dollar couldn't lose its reserve currency status unless some major changes were ...
by stpeter
Fri Nov 29, 2013 6:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: So how should the PP behave if the U.S....
Replies: 49
Views: 14202

Re: So how should the PP behave if the U.S....

To what currency would the U.S. dollar lose its reserve status? Based on the research I've done, I would say that the U.S. dollar might not be a beautiful currency, but it's prettier than the alternatives (in this context, mainly the euro, the yen, and the yuan). A real gold bug might argue that the...