I was considering using a depository to shield my gold from taxable events while keeping it safe in my old age and cognitive decline. The one in question charges 0.5% per annum. I did a present value analysis of the fees over time, even just assuming gold only grows with inflation, the fee harvests ...

foglifter wrote: ↑Tue Oct 31, 2023 7:19 pm I already bought my 2023 quota in April... if only I knew!

Sadly, I spent my $10,000 already for 2023. I think April - May is time to buy... the Fed dot plots, if you believe them, show an easing into late 2024. But... we're probably going to be humiliated nonetheless.

I'm going to wait until mid- or late-April to make a decision.

Did gold hit an ATH on a monthly basis? If so, that's important.

PS - I think it came close but didn't hit it.

Maybe the point now is to get into microcap value which is basically not tradeable for the big ETF makers. Things like the AAII Shadow Stock Portfolio, where you buy and mostly hold 30 microcap stocks. There is some turnover every quarter, but it's like 2-3 per quarter. So 8-12 per year... 1/4 to 1/...

Since July 31, 2021, gold is -2% and TLT is -47%. That's a really good argument for having gold. And now, gold is starting to buck the ten year real yield. There is scant argument to be made for a 90 y.o. person to hold stocks, but in addition to bonds I bought GLDM for my Mom, and looking back, I a...

That's a portfolio for you. Something always is bad, sometimes for a long time. The alternative is what?

I'm going to buy 30 year bonds when I turn 65 and forget about them and resolve to be happy with the coupon for the rest of my life. No more TLT. Just the bonds.

I realize now that all of the conventional inflation narratives around gold are BS. "Gold responds to inflation" - August 2020 until now really disproves that.

I have my $1300 gold, 10% of portfolio, but OMFG too many miners bought in 2020. I should have stuck with 100% bullion. Damn miners. But I'm holding. I'll sell them in a few years if they don't pop.

"Gold miners are where capital goes to die"

Did anyone go to this session? I could not, but the author posted an article in the AAII Newsletter, plain text excerpt below. It backs up the Golden Butterfly results. There was much more written. Here is the entire journal for that month from my Google Drive . ------------------------------------...

ppnewbie wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 9:33 pm I have VBR in my portfolio but would add a different ETF if I find something better.

I'm considering Advantis AVUV.

This AAII NYC Event may be of interest to those who want to learn more about Small Cap Value. Hello, The AAII NYC chapter cordially invites you to attend a special two-part mega-event featuring two of our most popular speakers, Paul Merriman and Chris Pedersen. Date: Wednesday, October 11 Time: 6:30...

Can you imagine how well you would have done if you'd bought real estate in Spain in the 1970s, right after Franco's death? Or in Croatia or Slovenia after Tito's death? WOW. In those cases, who needs gold? I was wondering if a similar situation exists in Ukraine. But that trade is for Ukrainian-Ame...

Look at the difference in the "bid" and the "ask". There's your answer. So if I'm selling a T-Bill on the secondary market for example, maybe the "bid" (price I'm offered for a Bill I'm selling) is 97.503, which is 97.503 cents on the Dollar. Maybe the "ask" (...

I treat it as I would a weather forecast... large error bars, but you probably shouldn't ignore it. It is probabilistic. There is another page I see there (I have to login) which shows a number of forecasts, which make up the single composite predictor, which range from pretty good to lousy. The agg...

Ten year stock market return forecasts

https://allocatesmartly.com/new-feature ... -forecast/

Oh, quick anti-climactic update: because I was laid off I can’t afford to throw anything into a VP right now so I have literally done nothing lol. That's terrible, may the time to your next job be short! Thanks! Silver lining is that I got laid off just BEFORE I was about to do the YOLO-ing rather ...

So I was updating my investments spreadsheet... and I had to subtract $200k from my IRA, because it went to the QLAC. But then I started a new row in the spreadsheet... "Present Value of QLAC using 13-week T-Bill as risk-free rate". I found that the PV was $250,000. So in a sense I have ad...

Smith1776 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 17, 2023 5:01 am Oh, quick anti-climactic update: because I was laid off I can’t afford to throw anything into a VP right now so I have literally done nothing lol.

That's terrible, may the time to your next job be short!

If you're near retirement/drawdown, a reasonable gold exit strategy IMO is to spend gold first. Agree, I could sell some of the gold to fund a Social Security substitute from retirement to age 70. I retire in 32 months, will take Social Security at 70. Let's hope it's broken out to the upside in 32...

I have almost as low a default risk as US Treasuries. I am not exposed to interest rate risk. When my owner turns 82, I will pay him a monthly coupon of $6135 per month until he passes, which is taxable, and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of all of my cash flows before taxes is 6.5% nominal . Wh...

I have almost as low a default risk as US Treasuries. I am not exposed to interest rate risk. When my owner turns 82, I will pay him a monthly coupon of $6135 per month until he passes, which is taxable, and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of all of my cash flows before taxes is 6.5% nominal . Wha...

I have some spending needs coming in 2026-2027, so I have been selling the I-Bonds with interest rates less than 4% and buying Treasuries maturing in 2026-2027 and locking in a bit more than 4%. Are those Treasuries tax-sheltered or not? No, they are exposed to taxes. It's a bit complicated. My per...