Search found 3353 matches

by ochotona
Mon Sep 25, 2023 12:38 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350463

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

This AAII NYC Event may be of interest to those who want to learn more about Small Cap Value. Hello, The AAII NYC chapter cordially invites you to attend a special two-part mega-event featuring two of our most popular speakers, Paul Merriman and Chris Pedersen. Date: Wednesday, October 11 Time: 6:30...
by ochotona
Fri Sep 22, 2023 4:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100258

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

Can you imagine how well you would have done if you'd bought real estate in Spain in the 1970s, right after Franco's death? Or in Croatia or Slovenia after Tito's death? WOW. In those cases, who needs gold? I was wondering if a similar situation exists in Ukraine. But that trade is for Ukrainian-Ame...
by ochotona
Fri Sep 22, 2023 4:09 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Tax loss harvesting bonds with Fidelity
Replies: 1
Views: 5022

Re: Tax loss harvesting bonds with Fidelity

Look at the difference in the "bid" and the "ask". There's your answer. So if I'm selling a T-Bill on the secondary market for example, maybe the "bid" (price I'm offered for a Bill I'm selling) is 97.503, which is 97.503 cents on the Dollar. Maybe the "ask" (the price they want to sell me a Bill fo...
by ochotona
Sat Sep 02, 2023 11:15 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 36803

Re: When will indexing blow up?

I treat it as I would a weather forecast... large error bars, but you probably shouldn't ignore it. It is probabilistic. There is another page I see there (I have to login) which shows a number of forecasts, which make up the single composite predictor, which range from pretty good to lousy. The agg...
by ochotona
Fri Sep 01, 2023 10:18 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 36803

Re: When will indexing blow up?

Ten year stock market return forecasts

https://allocatesmartly.com/new-feature ... -forecast/
by ochotona
Fri Sep 01, 2023 11:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: WSB-style YOLO
Replies: 7
Views: 2194

Re: WSB-style YOLO

Oh, quick anti-climactic update: because I was laid off I can’t afford to throw anything into a VP right now so I have literally done nothing lol. That's terrible, may the time to your next job be short! Thanks! Silver lining is that I got laid off just BEFORE I was about to do the YOLO-ing rather ...
by ochotona
Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:38 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What kind of "bond" am I?
Replies: 4
Views: 1016

Re: What kind of "bond" am I?

So I was updating my investments spreadsheet... and I had to subtract $200k from my IRA, because it went to the QLAC. But then I started a new row in the spreadsheet... "Present Value of QLAC using 13-week T-Bill as risk-free rate". I found that the PV was $250,000. So in a sense I have added $50,00...
by ochotona
Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:32 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: WSB-style YOLO
Replies: 7
Views: 2194

Re: WSB-style YOLO

Smith1776 wrote:
Thu Aug 17, 2023 5:01 am
Oh, quick anti-climactic update: because I was laid off I can’t afford to throw anything into a VP right now so I have literally done nothing lol.
That's terrible, may the time to your next job be short!
by ochotona
Thu Aug 31, 2023 11:30 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656654

Re: The GOLD scream room

If you're near retirement/drawdown, a reasonable gold exit strategy IMO is to spend gold first. Agree, I could sell some of the gold to fund a Social Security substitute from retirement to age 70. I retire in 32 months, will take Social Security at 70. Let's hope it's broken out to the upside in 32...
by ochotona
Wed Aug 09, 2023 12:31 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What kind of "bond" am I?
Replies: 4
Views: 1016

Re: What kind of "bond" am I?

I have almost as low a default risk as US Treasuries. I am not exposed to interest rate risk. When my owner turns 82, I will pay him a monthly coupon of $6135 per month until he passes, which is taxable, and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of all of my cash flows before taxes is 6.5% nominal . Wh...
by ochotona
Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:40 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What kind of "bond" am I?
Replies: 4
Views: 1016

What kind of "bond" am I?

I have almost as low a default risk as US Treasuries. I am not exposed to interest rate risk. When my owner turns 82, I will pay him a monthly coupon of $6135 per month until he passes, which is taxable, and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of all of my cash flows before taxes is 6.5% nominal . Wha...
by ochotona
Wed Aug 09, 2023 11:33 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 41216

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

I have some spending needs coming in 2026-2027, so I have been selling the I-Bonds with interest rates less than 4% and buying Treasuries maturing in 2026-2027 and locking in a bit more than 4%. Are those Treasuries tax-sheltered or not? No, they are exposed to taxes. It's a bit complicated. My per...
by ochotona
Tue Aug 08, 2023 7:19 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656654

Re: The GOLD scream room

Long term... I bought gold 2015-2018 at a good price, but I'm giving it until 2030, if no serious step above the past ATHs by then I'm out. Fifteen years is long enough. It will be time for digitization, simplification and streamlining for my heirs and future caregivers to take precedence. It doesn'...
by ochotona
Tue Aug 08, 2023 5:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again
Replies: 46
Views: 41216

Re: What happens to I-bonds if rates plummet again

I have some spending needs coming in 2026-2027, so I have been selling the I-Bonds with interest rates less than 4% and buying Treasuries maturing in 2026-2027 and locking in a bit more than 4%.
by ochotona
Tue Aug 08, 2023 2:12 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656654

Re: The GOLD scream room

In nominal dollar terms the price of gold stepped up during the 1970's, 1980/1990 were a plateau, 2000's were a step (dot com bubble, financial crisis), 2010's were a plateau, excepting a relatively small 2020 step (Covid) as part of that. A nice feature with that is if you blend stocks with gold t...
by ochotona
Tue Aug 08, 2023 11:26 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1656654

Re: The GOLD scream room

So when does gold catch a bid? Dow is down -321 right now, 10 year interest rates are down, US Dollar is down, why is gold also down?
by ochotona
Tue Aug 08, 2023 11:23 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: WSB-style YOLO
Replies: 7
Views: 2194

Re: WSB-style YOLO

On the chance Jeremy Grantham will be right sometime, maybe Emerging Markets Value? Like ETF AVES? Or just EM... VWO. That's mainstream risky, or old person risky, or something.
by ochotona
Sun Jul 16, 2023 6:56 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
Replies: 33
Views: 14674

Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23

I hate to give up the tax deferred features, the no RMD, paying imputed income on TIPs. I guess it's really a bet on inflation and an individual's tax payment experience in the future... Well, not an urgent question. Maybe I just put an upper limit on what % of the portfolio to ibonds and maintain i...
by ochotona
Sat Jul 15, 2023 9:25 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
Replies: 33
Views: 14674

Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23

What's the way to think about using I-Bonds if the yield dips significantly below T-Bills?
by ochotona
Thu Jun 29, 2023 2:15 pm
Forum: Politics
Topic: Affirmative action ruling
Replies: 11
Views: 1873

Affirmative action ruling

Chinese-Americans have known for decades that our numbers were being suppressed at many universities because, "oops, too many Chinese". It's just exactly what happened to Jews in the early 20th century when the Ivies thought there were "too many Jews" and severly limited Jewish enrollment.
by ochotona
Mon Jun 12, 2023 12:23 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: When will indexing blow up?
Replies: 30
Views: 36803

Re: When will indexing blow up?

Just yesterday I was comparing iShares US Minimum Volatility Factor ETF to SPY, and they track well until all of the COVID money printing, at which point SPY stands on its tail. It just seems to me that S&P500 is just a stupid bet on something, and someday SPY is going to catch-down to USMV, and it ...
by ochotona
Tue Jun 06, 2023 12:39 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Is anyone else buying TIPS?
Replies: 28
Views: 8971

Re: Is anyone else buying TIPS?

I won't use TIPS because my tax-advantaged space is all used up by tactical asset allocation and the phantom income thing is nonsense. I might use them if losses weren't capped to $3000 in a tax year, but because they are gated, no.
by ochotona
Wed May 03, 2023 12:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Is Ruth's Chris Steak Houses really worth $715 million?
Replies: 2
Views: 781

Is Ruth's Chris Steak Houses really worth $715 million?

Darden just bought them for $715 million. I like Ruth's Chris, but I'm not understanding this one.
by ochotona
Mon May 01, 2023 7:05 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for retirement planning?
Replies: 2
Views: 713

What inflation rate do you use for retirement planning?

I use the Flexible Retirement Planner. It's great. The default inflation rate is 3%. The current 5, 10, 20, and 30 year TIPS breakeven inflation rates are all below 3%. However... I just have a feeling I might just get screwed in the end by inflation. I'm tempted to bump it up to 3.5% as a hedge. An...
by ochotona
Fri Apr 28, 2023 7:48 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach
Replies: 3
Views: 1678

Re: Predicting US Treasury Returns - a tactical bond approach

Yes, B&H you got right. IEF is the 7-10 year US Treasury ETF. Some HBPP users like to use IEF instead of Cash + TLT... the one ETF "bullet". The point I'm making in this post is this Predicting US Treasury Returns is a bullet that doesn't misbehave in a rising interest rate environment. I did some m...