Search found 755 matches

by jhogue
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?
Replies: 23
Views: 11305

Re: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?

1. I decided last year to switch last year from annual rebalancing to 15/35 bands. Not market timing, but hoping to favorably catch future market swings. 2. Remember that, in the short run, you can never have too much Cash. In fact, more than any of the four HBPP assets, Cash makes me feel rich. 3, ...
by jhogue
Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy
Replies: 16
Views: 8076

Re: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy

dualstow, I am afraid that you have mischaracterized Swiss attitudes toward both privacy and crime. Paul Erdman, an American novelist who had once been the CEO of a Swiss private bank, said that the difference between the Swiss and the Americans is that the Swiss are willing to put their white colla...
by jhogue
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash is King!
Replies: 12
Views: 14524

Re: Cash is King!

If possible, why not split your purchase? Also, given the recent rise in interest rates and inflation, I think the better deals are to found right now in shorter maturities than your 5 year bank CD. Consider: 1. One year US Treasury bill @ 2.70%. 2. Series I savings bond, currently @ 2.62%. (Wait to...
by jhogue
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy
Replies: 16
Views: 8076

Re: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy

"beast knowledge"?
by jhogue
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy
Replies: 16
Views: 8076

Re: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy

1. Actually, Harry Browne predicted that the Swiss would one day be forced to abandon bank secrecy, in his book on Swiss banks originally published in the 1980s. 2. If you read the article carefully, you will note that this new sharing of bank information with other countries applies only to foreign...
by jhogue
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1783505

Re: The GOLD scream room

Sage advice from Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist, No. 12: “The prosperity of commerce is now perceived and acknowledged, by all enlightened statesmen, to be the most useful as well as the most productive source of national wealth; and has accordingly become a primary object of their political car...
by jhogue
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?
Replies: 8
Views: 7255

Re: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?

I don't have the figures in front of me, but I am pretty certain that US savings bonds do not now account for anywhere near the percentage of Treasury debt that they did in World War II and the following couple of decades. I agree that the 1 year T bill (currently at 2.59%) looks like the best value...
by jhogue
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?
Replies: 8
Views: 7255

Re: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?

I have been studying the yield curve for about a year now, hoping to use it as a leading indicator on inflation/deflation and, hence, prospective I-bond and EE-bond rates. Over the last year, the 1 year T bill rate has risen 137 basis points. In the same time period, the I bond rate has risen just 5...
by jhogue
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint depository online data breach
Replies: 43
Views: 32130

Re: Perth Mint depository online data breach

Pugchief,

Did you consciously decide at some point not to hold physical gold? Or, is it perhaps the consequence of the tax structure of your investment portfolio?
by jhogue
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?
Replies: 8
Views: 7255

Re: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?

Sorry I could not offer you more help.

I will be watching the yield curve and interest rates carefully before the 11/1/18 reset. I think it quite possible that the Treasury will revise the fixed and/or variable I bond rate. Possibly the EE bond rate too, but that seems less likely at the moment.
by jhogue
Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?
Replies: 8
Views: 7255

Re: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?

The US Treasury will not provide you with a list of bonds that you bought. Everyone who invests in US savings bonds should make their own list of bonds and keep an updated copy of that list in a secure place, like a bank safe deposit box. If your paper EE bonds were lost, stolen, or destroyed, you c...
by jhogue
Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 389514

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

I believe that it was also James Carville who said: "You never know what you'll come up with if you drag a $100 bill through a trailer park." (referring to Paula Jones' successful lawsuit for sexual harassment against Bill Clinton). There were also some other quotes attributed to him of an...
by jhogue
Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18
Replies: 45
Views: 42686

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18

Tipswatch is a great website for tracking the inflation rate of the CPI-U and possible moves in I bond interest rates. That said, I am not sure why the author also promotes the purchase of TIPS. I find TIPS unsuitable for the HBPP, both because they can produce a negative yield in a deflationary eco...
by jhogue
Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 389514

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

When was the last time a sitting President who wished to run for a second term lost a primary?: 1.Taft lost a number of primaries to Teddy Roosevelt (and Robert LaFolette) in the campaign for the Republican nomination of 1912. The campaign was so bitter that TR walked out of the convention and ran a...
by jhogue
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 389514

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

The Swiss had a national referendum and voted down joining the EU.

They know enough history to have good reason to distrust their neighbors.
by jhogue
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF (AAAU)
Replies: 11
Views: 9614

Re: Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF (AAAU)

SGOL is an American-based gold ETF, but its gold is held in Switzerland. It is not ideal, but it does provide some measure of geographical diversification. The net expense ratio (0.39%) is a little higher than IAU or GLD, but it has been in operation for a number of years and has total assets of abo...
by jhogue
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:05 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: How to handle 529
Replies: 5
Views: 3950

Re: How to handle 529

I came to a similar conclusion: don’t contribute to a 529 until you have fully funded every possible tax-deferred vehicle for retirement. You can always pull money from a retirement account later to pay off college loans, even after the child graduates from college. You can’t pull money from a 529 t...
by jhogue
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19904

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

Yup.

The Soviets also slaughtered anarchists in Barcelona during the Spanish Civil War in preference to fighting Franco and the fascists. See George Orwell's Homage to Catalonia.
by jhogue
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:57 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18
Replies: 45
Views: 42686

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18

In case of a return to deflation, LTTs and EE bonds will outperform STTs and I bonds. It’s the barbell effect. You won’t have to buy more long bonds; they will rise in price. However, unlike TIPS, which can (and have) gone into negative yield, I bonds are guaranteed by the US Treasury to not to go b...
by jhogue
Thu Aug 02, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Interventionism versus non-interventionism
Replies: 43
Views: 19904

Re: Interventionism versus non-interventionism

I think KBG is right. Libertarianism may be theoretically satisfying, but it is practically problematic.

Centuries later, the Moors still mourn the loss of Andalusia and the Turks believe they should not have stopped at the gates of Vienna.
by jhogue
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18
Replies: 45
Views: 42686

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18

As a longer-term investor in I bonds (ie., over 5 and hopefully up to 30 years), I doubt that it will make much difference when I buy I bonds in 2019. At present, I buy-and-hold I bonds primarily for their guaranteed inflation protection, 30 year tax deferral, and state tax exemption. The I bond yie...
by jhogue
Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Max [maxmyinterest.com]
Replies: 32
Views: 36602

Re: Max [maxmyinterest.com]

I like using Fidelity to buy and own T-bills directly. It completely avoids the manager risk associated with ETFs and mutual funds. Also, the expense ratio (0.00% !!!) simply cannot be beat. When I first started buying T-bills, I wondered if Fidelity might be tempted to pump up the bid/ask spread to...
by jhogue
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Max [maxmyinterest.com]
Replies: 32
Views: 36602

Re: Max [maxmyinterest.com]

Note the effects of the FOMC’s deliberate flattening of the yield curve on investors’ Deep Cash choices: 3 month Treasury = 1.96% 1 year Treasury = 2.37% 30 year Treasury = 2.93% 1. Given that a 1 year T-bill now captures an astounding 93% of the yield of a 30 year T-bond, AND that the FOMC is trans...
by jhogue
Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
Replies: 500
Views: 306520

Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test

Yeah, I know.

My caveat emptor about munis and corporate bonds applies to holders of VPs as well as more orthodox holders of the HBPP.

Are you recommending investors buy munis and corporate bonds?
by jhogue
Wed Jul 04, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 389514

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

Actually, I suspect that Obama regards his poor percentage with SCOTUS as a badge of honor. He probably told his attorney general and solicitor general to go out and "push the envelope" by taking as many cases as possible to the high court, on the plausible theory that at least some of the...