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by ppnewbie
Thu Oct 19, 2023 4:10 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Just made a purchase at 5.088 for 30 year LTTs
Replies: 7
Views: 3844

Just made a purchase at 5.088 for 30 year LTTs

Its hard to buy something that nobody wants!
by ppnewbie
Tue Oct 17, 2023 8:57 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350760

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Another way to look at it is that with VBR having a P/E around 10 it’s about a 10 percent return (not sure if that is naive). That also seems about as cheap as it will get. As long as they are mostly good companies that’s better than most alternatives. And eventually the stock price will catch up wi...
by ppnewbie
Tue Oct 17, 2023 10:52 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100488

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

How about US domestic stocks. I thought in a general inflationary environment they go up as well. That seems to me to be the easiest inflation hedge. And gold seems to be a long term inflation hedge and maybe a chaos hedge.
by ppnewbie
Tue Oct 17, 2023 9:58 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350760

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Thanks!
by ppnewbie
Mon Oct 16, 2023 12:36 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23
Replies: 63
Views: 100488

Re: I Thought Gold Would Fare Better in 2022-23

Gold has a 10 year CAGR of 3.46 percent. It feels like a super tanker moving very slowly (reflecting an inflationary environment).
by ppnewbie
Mon Oct 16, 2023 12:12 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: How do bond funds / ETF’s work?
Replies: 6
Views: 4595

Re: How do bond funds / ETF’s work?

@boglerdude

Also thanks for the EDV reference. I was buying full duration 30 year bonds because I wanted biggest impact in a deflationary environment and TLT (expensive) are an average of 20 year durations.

With EDV being so cheap and a 25 year average duration it may be an easier choice.
by ppnewbie
Mon Oct 16, 2023 11:58 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: How do bond funds / ETF’s work?
Replies: 6
Views: 4595

Re: How do bond funds / ETF’s work?

yeah you'll get 4.65 total return back after 25 years its like holding a bond thats always 25 year duration Anybody heard from robert kessler? Seems like he'd be buying https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1EKb8dk0vg Just to clarify. You mean I will get 4.65 yield FOR 25 years not “after” 25 years, cor...
by ppnewbie
Mon Oct 16, 2023 8:24 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold bars on sale at Costco
Replies: 15
Views: 24756

Re: Gold bars on sale at Costco

That’s an interesting comment about Sales tax in the article. Having to get a refund on the sales tax after the purchase could be a hassle.
by ppnewbie
Mon Oct 16, 2023 8:18 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 25951

Re: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

Thanks Vinny. VBR (which I currently am invested in) is the etf version of VSIAX.

https://thoughtfulfinance.com/vsiax-vs-vbr/
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 15, 2023 9:33 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 25951

Re: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

I have VBR in my portfolio but would add a different ETF if I find something better.
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 15, 2023 9:32 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 25951

Re: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

Can you throw out some names of small cap value active index funds if you have any?
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 15, 2023 9:03 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350760

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

Did anyone go to this session?
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 15, 2023 8:53 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: How do bond funds / ETF’s work?
Replies: 6
Views: 4595

How do bond funds / ETF’s work?

If I buy a 30 year treasury today at 4.7 percent I will get 4.7 percent yield for 30 years regardless of the tradeable value of the bond. How does that work if I purchase 100 dollars of the EDV etf which has an average duration of 25 years. Would I get approximately a 4.65 percent yield (their curre...
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 15, 2023 8:47 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold bars on sale at Costco
Replies: 15
Views: 24756

Re: Gold bars on sale at Costco

They were not available at any Costco near me. I was going to buy two. In general it would be amazing if costco sold gold bars. I would probably accumulate many more bars.
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 15, 2023 8:42 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 25951

Re: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

I am concerned about how many of these companies can survive high interest rates. Does any know a good way to see debt to equity ratios for the CRSPR small cap value indexes or the SP 600 small cap value index?
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 15, 2023 7:34 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 25951

Re: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

Which small cap value fund are you in? And feel free to throw out any growth fund you think are good. But I am trying to stay disciplined and stick to a golden butterfly. Especially after this article by Tyler. https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredients-of-the-most-efficient-por...
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 15, 2023 3:59 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Seth Klarman's Margin of Safety
Replies: 11
Views: 11880

Re: Seth Klarman's Margin of Safety

Please throw out any nuggets people of found in the book if its not too much trouble.
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 15, 2023 3:56 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment
Replies: 23
Views: 25951

Small Cap Value seems cheap at the moment

Any one have any thoughts on why small cap value is so cheap at the moment. VIOV seems to have a P/E of 4.87 (accoring to yahoo). I have a some questions that I would love to hear peoples opinion about. - VBR vs VIOV? OR any other SCV etf people use here. - Anyone concerned about the Small Cap Value...
by ppnewbie
Sun Oct 08, 2023 3:22 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: MKL / BRKB vs LTT
Replies: 1
Views: 1116

MKL / BRKB vs LTT

MKL, BRKB, and LTT are all seem cheap. Any thoughts on which one to buy?
by ppnewbie
Sun Sep 17, 2023 3:24 am
Forum: Politics
Topic: Putin Invades Ukraine II
Replies: 1161
Views: 831488

Re: Putin Invades Ukraine II

I think Putin may have been trolling the US because “the plane goes down” is a favorite method of a three letter agency.
by ppnewbie
Mon Aug 07, 2023 3:34 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Substitutes
Replies: 41
Views: 81695

Re: Gold Substitutes

An easy light weight portable item that holds its value and in some cases explodes in value is high end mechanical watches. Some are susceptible to significant swings in value but the classics are a reliable store of value. Like say a Rolex submariner.
by ppnewbie
Thu May 11, 2023 7:20 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB
Replies: 19
Views: 6720

Re: Simplifying fund choices for the PP/GB

For a Golden Butterfly... VTI VBR BIL (Interested in hearing what others do, I actually use SCHO but I would not recommend it). VGLT IAUM (JP Morgan Custodian) Or to Simplify further your wife could just not ever rebalance and only withdraw, just withdraw whatever is up at the time. And if she she d...
by ppnewbie
Thu May 11, 2023 6:49 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
Replies: 19
Views: 4581

Re: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market

Here are some portfoliovisualizer charts. It seems like these two classes are decently correlated. It shows a correlation of .89.
Screen Shot 2023-05-11 at 4.43.34 PM.png
Screen Shot 2023-05-11 at 4.43.34 PM.png (344.12 KiB) Viewed 4425 times
And...Log scale turned off
Screen Shot 2023-05-11 at 4.49.00 PM.png
Screen Shot 2023-05-11 at 4.49.00 PM.png (237.04 KiB) Viewed 4425 times
by ppnewbie
Tue May 09, 2023 12:55 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Monetary Metals
Replies: 3
Views: 2671

Re: Monetary Metals

No boundaries being crossed. They are based in Arizona. It’s an interesting way to own gold and earn a yield on it.
by ppnewbie
Mon May 08, 2023 11:17 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market
Replies: 19
Views: 4581

Small Cap Value vs US Total Stock Market

Interested in hearing opinions about SCV vs TSM investing for my children. Seems like over the long term SCV beats TSM by a long way. Wondering if there are any gotcha's with SCV. I'm planning on starting with one automated investment to keep things simple.