Search found 1111 matches
- Thu Nov 10, 2016 8:13 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Tallying of early votes
- Replies: 20
- Views: 8540
Re: Tallying of early votes
Any chance of getting caught happens well after the fact, but the penalties might be considerable (misrepresentation on a government form). It's sort of like cheating on your taxes. Lots of people do it, but more avoid it because even though the probability of getting caught is small, the penalties...
- Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:23 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Tallying of early votes
- Replies: 20
- Views: 8540
Re: Tallying of early votes
That makes more sense. I thought in 2000 they were saying that mail-in ballots basically were never counted unless the race was close enough that it would make a difference. That was a bit upsetting to me at the time. Gore won 270+ electoral votes if the FL Supreme Court had decided to wait to coun...
- Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:40 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Newbie question
- Replies: 22
- Views: 11589
Re: Newbie question
I use individual bonds, but check your trading platform/brokerage and see how they plan to make money off the trade. For example, I bought some using TD Ameritrade and it when I went to sell I got so-called "bids" that were 5% below the expected value. Wouldn't want to do a lot of trading ...
- Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:30 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Tallying of early votes
- Replies: 20
- Views: 8540
Re: Tallying of early votes
As far as I know, it's only ballots that have been returned and party ID that is tallied, not the actual vote counted. So for instance, hypothetically if 675K registered R's, 700K registered D's and 550K I's have returned early votes, they know the numbers returned, but they don't report who each p...
- Mon Nov 07, 2016 11:39 am
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Taxi Drivers are Racist!
- Replies: 3
- Views: 3511
Re: Taxi Drivers are Racist!
In restaurants, the differences in tipping could be explained by mutually destructive preconceptions (black people tip less therefore I give them worse service so they tip less). Is there evidence they also tip less for taxis? If a bunch of taxis passed me I think I'd tip more to the one that finall...
- Tue Nov 01, 2016 10:54 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Goodbye
- Replies: 27
- Views: 17579
Re: Goodbye
Just for the record, I still pop in now and then, though mostly as a lurker. While I will agree that the level of discourse is not up to its former standards, my main reason for not posting as much is simply that a lot of what is being posted are topics that have either been beaten to death or that...
- Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:59 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Hurricane Matthew
- Replies: 6
- Views: 4258
Re: Hermine
It's levioSAAHH
- Fri Sep 23, 2016 4:23 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
- Replies: 26
- Views: 17166
Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
I got a perfect score (100) and think the test was very well written
- Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:22 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Hand Holding
- Replies: 60
- Views: 23753
Re: Hand Holding
25 basis points is too much for a single raise. Just do 5 bp and nobody will bat an eye. If they did 5bp each quarter this year we'd almost be at 1/4 point and no overreaction. Boil the frog
- Thu Sep 22, 2016 1:01 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
- Replies: 26
- Views: 17166
Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
The classics questions are the ones with equal expected value, so would you rather have $500 or a 50/50 chance at $0/$1000. That makes sense I guess. I'd typically pick a sure thing all else being equal. Now if it's $500 vs 50/50 chance of $2000/0 I'd flip the coin. Usually you keep adjusting the va...
- Wed Sep 21, 2016 9:59 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
- Replies: 26
- Views: 17166
Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
I didn't even know what they were getting at with the whole "some experts think metals will go up do you sell your bonds?" Uh no I don't change my AA based on what "some experts" think
- Wed Sep 21, 2016 2:10 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
- Replies: 26
- Views: 17166
Re: Investment Risk Tolerance Quiz
Above average, but possibly a $200 gain is insignificant compared to my portfolio. If they example values were 10-100 times bigger I'd be far more cautious
- Fri Aug 26, 2016 9:50 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
- Replies: 571
- Views: 337758
Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
I understand futures in general but have no experience with them. I'd be interested in seeing a play by play for any paper trades you do to understand the mechanics involved
- Thu Aug 04, 2016 4:55 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: MachineGhost's Research Resort
- Replies: 212
- Views: 96159
Re: MachineGhost's Research Resort
As my final post before the world-as-we-know-it ends, I thought it was fitting to announce that I was finally able to crack the rebalancing bands issue and backtest for the optimal thresholds to use. <drum roll> The optimal rebalancing bands are 12%-13% on a end of year basis. That means rebalancin...
- Sat Jul 23, 2016 12:26 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
- Replies: 571
- Views: 337758
Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
That's amazing. There's still counterparty risk, of course, but I see why it's relatively insignificant
- Fri Jul 22, 2016 3:33 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
- Replies: 571
- Views: 337758
Re: 20% annual returns over 40 years...interested?
How do futures contracts eliminate counterparty risk? What happens if there is a breach of contract?
- Tue Jul 19, 2016 11:31 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series
- Replies: 77
- Views: 33485
Re: Strongtowns.org Antifragile series
Not to mention their effective tax rate will be nowhere near 40%. Maybe marginal.
- Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:12 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
- Replies: 36
- Views: 20164
Re: Things about the PP that do not make sense to me
Others have proposed allocations based on duration or volatility, but I think they are still fairly close to the 4x25. I personally agree the PP is slightly skewed towards outperformance in bad times, but you have to remember that HB considered your salary to be the number one wealth generator. So i...
- Wed Jul 13, 2016 3:31 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Oh Come On
- Replies: 109
- Views: 44465
Re: Oh Come On
And so it unbegins
- Tue Jul 12, 2016 11:54 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Oh Come On
- Replies: 109
- Views: 44465
Re: Oh Come On
and so it begins
- Sun Jul 10, 2016 3:01 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Social Security Withheld vs Privatization
- Replies: 9
- Views: 4702
Re: Social Security Withheld vs Privatization
Machine ghost is for machine ghost
- Fri Jul 08, 2016 6:23 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion
- Replies: 192
- Views: 100081
Re: Sprott Intends to Make Exchange Offers for Central GoldTrust and Silver Bullion
yes, its the same deal as GTU was
although I only have it in tax-deferred right now (but that saves me from having to file that stupid form I hate)
although I only have it in tax-deferred right now (but that saves me from having to file that stupid form I hate)
- Fri Jul 08, 2016 3:18 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Oh Come On
- Replies: 109
- Views: 44465
Re: Oh Come On
To those who were thinking of abandoning the PP during the dark times, I have some advice: believe in yourself
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ZShmt19uQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2ZShmt19uQ
- Fri Jul 08, 2016 12:33 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Oh Come On
- Replies: 109
- Views: 44465
Re: Oh Come On
it's killing me
I must have PP Stockholm syndrome at this point
I must have PP Stockholm syndrome at this point
- Thu Jul 07, 2016 11:41 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Dallas shooting
- Replies: 33
- Views: 10570
Re: Dallas shooting
If only open carry were legal in Dallas, citizens would have stopped this immediately.