Search found 1365 matches

by stuper1
Thu Sep 10, 2015 2:30 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains
Replies: 275
Views: 103028

Re: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains

I don't want mathjak to leave.  I don't want anybody to leave.  I think my post was not worded very well.  My bad.

I also don't want to read the same stuff every day, over and over.
by stuper1
Thu Sep 10, 2015 11:21 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains
Replies: 275
Views: 103028

Re: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains

at the risk of sounding like a broken record That gets my vote for understatement of the year. I think we've got your point by now.  You'd accomplish a lot more good in the investing world by focusing your energies on the much larger group of people who are doing stupid things like wasting their mo...
by stuper1
Wed Sep 09, 2015 7:11 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All PP assets trending down: When has this happened before? Kinda scary...
Replies: 73
Views: 24910

Re: All PP assets trending down: When has this happened before? Kinda scary...

I feel let down by the PP. The PP returns recently haven't been outside the bounds of historical PP returns.  If you feel let down by the PP, then you didn't do your due diligence before you got into it.  All portfolios have ups and downs.  The important thing is to ride them out rather than panick...
by stuper1
Wed Sep 09, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash
Replies: 25
Views: 10814

Re: Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash

Reub,

Some of us grew out of being jerks in middle school.  Is this something that you're still working through, or maybe you are younger than I thought?
by stuper1
Sun Sep 06, 2015 5:30 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash
Replies: 25
Views: 10814

Re: Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash

Reub, Obama and Sharpton didn't put anything in her head.  Personal experience put it in her head.  If you don't think that prejudice is alive and well, then you're a bit slow.  More likely, you know it's alive and well, but you don't care.  Well, I do care.  She's a friend of mine.  I don't particu...
by stuper1
Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:50 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash
Replies: 25
Views: 10814

Re: Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash

Stewardship, You mentioned "standard questions".  Do you know what those questions are?  That's what I'm trying to figure out, to make sure she knows what to expect. If you were brown with an accent, you might have a different take on authority figures, including bank officials. If you had a child w...
by stuper1
Sat Sep 05, 2015 2:16 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash
Replies: 25
Views: 10814

Re: Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash

There's a little more to the story that might be important.  This is a second marriage for both of them.  They've been married about 20 years.  She is an immigrant, and she has been here long enough to know that her dark skin and accent can make some situations more difficult than they should be. He...
by stuper1
Sat Sep 05, 2015 12:54 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash
Replies: 25
Views: 10814

Advice Needed re Large Stash of Cash

An elderly friend came to me yesterday with a question.  She just discovered that her husband has a large stash of cash in the house ($30,000 in $100 bills).  He is quite frail and senile and not really capable of making decisions any longer.  She wants to deposit the money into their joint account ...
by stuper1
Fri Aug 28, 2015 3:30 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Why did gold barely pop when the equities tanked in August '15?
Replies: 13
Views: 5774

Re: Why did gold barely pop when the equities tanked in August '15?

Every time I hear people say that gold is an inflation hedge, I think about the period of 2002 to 2012.  Gold went up like a rocket, but inflation was low. To me, gold is just an uncorrelated asset (and very importantly a hard asset, if you hold physical, which will be great when financial Armageddo...
by stuper1
Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains
Replies: 275
Views: 103028

Re: PSA: I now have a 3-year period with no gains

Very good point, Cortopassi.

How does the PP to 60/40 comparison look if you use the time period of 1/1/2001 to today?
by stuper1
Fri Aug 14, 2015 6:05 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Speculative Rebalancing
Replies: 20
Views: 11475

Re: Speculative Rebalancing

My point is just that nobody really knows which components are overvalued or undervalued at this time, or almost at any time.  From what little I've read recently, I wouldn't say that there is a consensus that the stock market is overvalued.  Holding more cash is almost always a less risky propositi...
by stuper1
Fri Aug 14, 2015 3:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Speculative Rebalancing
Replies: 20
Views: 11475

Re: Speculative Rebalancing

What does the literature suggest on the current valuation of gold and long-term bonds?
by stuper1
Wed Jul 01, 2015 2:54 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296784

Re: No where to hide

Mathjak107,

I would like to see your model.
by stuper1
Wed Jul 01, 2015 2:18 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296784

Re: No where to hide

2015 has been a dismal year for the HBPP.  I cannot help but notice that the first two weeks of the year produced a small gain, followed by a steady decline YTD thereafter. My Fidelity rep. is encouraging me to get out of TLT (LT Treasuries), as they have been getting whacked.  So I need words of e...
by stuper1
Wed Jul 01, 2015 2:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Roth vs Traditional
Replies: 13
Views: 7677

Re: Roth vs Traditional

Another thing to keep in mind is that a Roth can act as an emergency fund also, because you are allowed to withdraw your contributions without penalty at any time.  Of course, you don't want to make a habit of that with money that is meant to be saved up for retirement, but you may be able to make g...
by stuper1
Sat Jun 27, 2015 1:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Obergefell v. Hodges
Replies: 87
Views: 20506

Re: Obergefell v. Hodges

Add me to the list of people who think NWO was banned a bit quick.  He was just a young, brash guy who needs to learn to argue a bit more productively, but he may never learn without some good interaction with people like the ones on this board.  IMHO the moderators here are a bit touchy at times.  ...
by stuper1
Fri Jun 19, 2015 4:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Worst 3 year PP performance ever?
Replies: 124
Views: 55277

Re: Worst 3 year PP performance ever?

mathjak107 wrote: i used to follow the PP decades ago when i first started out.  now that i am retiring i am back
Did you do better or worse than the PP in the interim?
by stuper1
Mon Jun 15, 2015 3:00 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: How bad was my timing?
Replies: 9
Views: 5102

Re: How bad was my timing?

I went all in to the PP in April 2013.  Gold crashed soon after that, and I thought I had made a big mistake.  But I just let things ride, and I'm glad I did.  2013 wasn't a great year, but 2014 was pretty good.  2015 doesn't look so great, but that can change.  Just keep telling yourself that nobod...
by stuper1
Mon Jun 08, 2015 7:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296784

Re: No where to hide

Flagator, Here's what you do:  just ride it out, and don't worry about it.  Whatever you do, don't sell at a loss and lock in your losses.  Look back at the PP performance over a multi-year time frame, not just year-to-date.  You're in it for the long-haul, not the short term.  You'd be in just as b...
by stuper1
Fri May 15, 2015 5:44 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash Drag
Replies: 19
Views: 15248

Re: Cash Drag

Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong, but it's my understanding that PP rebalancing almost always (or maybe always always) happens by hitting a 35% band, not by hitting a 15% band.  Is this true?  Has anybody had to rebalance because an asset went down so bad that it hit the 15% band? If my under...
by stuper1
Thu May 07, 2015 5:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296784

Re: No where to hide

My gold allocation is 100% IAU right now.  But I think holding some physical gold is a great idea and I plan to buy some in the future when rebalancing requires it.  I'm a natural optimizer so I messed around with various funds and vehicles while generally over-thinking things my first year.  Analy...
by stuper1
Thu May 07, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296784

Re: No where to hide

Good advice, Tyler.  I have a question for you, but I understand you may not want to share too much.  How do you handle gold?  Do you mind telling us how much is physical and how much is in ETF/CEF form?  I hope I'm not prying.  It's just that gold is the oddball that may not be handled electronical...
by stuper1
Wed May 06, 2015 11:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296784

Re: No where to hide

BT...the key to investing success is A) something that works and B) something that works in a way that you can stick with it. A is easy enough to find, B is what you have to find and no one but no one can solve this one for you except for you. If (A) is easy enough to find, why did it take me 20 ye...
by stuper1
Tue May 05, 2015 8:22 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why own a gun?
Replies: 15
Views: 5687

Re: Why own a gun?

As many people much smarter than me have observed, people are so stupid about risk.  If you really want to decrease your risks in life, there are two main things to do.  One, eat a healthy diet and get lots of exercise.  Two, drive very defensively; your odds of dying in a crash double for every 10 ...
by stuper1
Tue May 05, 2015 6:53 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Why own a gun?
Replies: 15
Views: 5687

Re: Why own a gun?

Each person has to weigh the various risks and decide what's best for them. I'm not quite following your reasoning around the word "insecurity".  IMHO, gun ownership is more often associated with insecurity than the other way around.  I'm secure in two facts.  First, I don't want a gun around.  Seco...