Search found 106 matches

by Tom
Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:22 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Brokerage Firm as Your Bank
Replies: 19
Views: 14658

Re: Brokerage Firm as Your Bank

- If your cash isn't safe at Fidelity, it's not safe anywhere, so nothing wrong there. - I have looked into the Vanguard debit card, but even bogleheads aren't that excited about it. They don't like the way the statements look. Of course, the money is managed fine. - I use a Fidelity American Expre...
by Tom
Fri Sep 18, 2015 12:46 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Brokerage Firm as Your Bank
Replies: 19
Views: 14658

Brokerage Firm as Your Bank

I'm at the point where I have enough emergency cash that I've gone full in Permanent Portfolio with the rest of my money.  I've been toying with the idea of separating my permanent portfolio cash from my emergency cash and start using Fidelity as my "bank" where I deposit my weekly paychecks so it's...
by Tom
Thu Sep 17, 2015 1:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 86593

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Greed. Personally, it's fear and not greed that motivated me to invest in the PP. The topic under discussion is "why to quit the PP" not "why to invest in the PP". I understand what the topic under discussion is.  I'm saying I don't understand why that is a topic so commonly discussed amongst peopl...
by Tom
Thu Sep 17, 2015 10:01 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Reason to Quit PP
Replies: 262
Views: 86593

Re: The Reason to Quit PP

Even if I see my PP fall for three or four years, I'd still have to make a choice about either going all cash or some other asset mix that I like going forward. Right now I see gold, bonds and stocks all more or less as fairly priced given how low rates are here in the US. So to me the PP seems fun...
by Tom
Wed Sep 16, 2015 1:36 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Surprise, surprise! 30 million in gold missing from depository...
Replies: 7
Views: 3826

Re: Surprise, surprise! 30 million in gold missing from depository...

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tom wrote: I have bought a lot of gold from bullion direct over the years.  Sure am glad I didn't trust them to hold onto it for me!
Harry Browne explicitly warned against leaving gold with a gold dealer.
Yep, which is part of why I didn't.
by Tom
Thu Sep 10, 2015 11:58 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Surprise, surprise! 30 million in gold missing from depository...
Replies: 7
Views: 3826

Re: Surprise, surprise! 30 million in gold missing from depository...

I have bought a lot of gold from bullion direct over the years.  Sure am glad I didn't trust them to hold onto it for me!
by Tom
Wed Sep 09, 2015 2:09 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: All PP assets trending down: When has this happened before? Kinda scary...
Replies: 73
Views: 24928

Re: All PP assets trending down: When has this happened before? Kinda scary...

as well as serve a different purpose . it isn't designed to grow money but to preserve it with lower volatility . The problem is, it's not even preserving it. I don't think the promise of the PP to preserve capital means that it will never ever lose money.  I think it means that in the short term i...
by Tom
Mon Aug 24, 2015 11:05 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296954

Re: No where to hide

Not really...gold and treasuries aren't doing anything. I wouldn't say they haven't done anything.  In the last week gold has gone up about $50 an ounce an my TLT holdings have gone up by a few bucks per share.  They aren't skyrocketing immediately (that takes time for the market to decide to fierc...
by Tom
Mon Aug 24, 2015 10:19 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296954

Re: No where to hide

The only difference between a stock heavy allocation and the PP during this downturn is the percent allocated to equities. Gold is DOWN LTT's up .26% DOW down 500 Depends on how heavy the stock heavy allocation is.  The PP is down 1.66% YTD where as stocks are down 6.56% YTD.  Also to consider is t...
by Tom
Mon Aug 24, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No where to hide
Replies: 804
Views: 296954

Re: No where to hide

As of right now, the PP sure seems like a good place to hide. :) Not really...gold and treasuries aren't doing anything. I wouldn't say they haven't done anything.  In the last week gold has gone up about $50 an ounce an my TLT holdings have gone up by a few bucks per share.  They aren't skyrocketi...
by Tom
Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:53 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 18063

Re: No gains to be had

S&P is now not only negative yrs but lower ytd than hbpp.  Gold and treasuries picked up a lot of slack.  Good lesson on staying the course despite all the noise and predictions out there.
by Tom
Thu Aug 20, 2015 12:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 18063

Re: No gains to be had

S&P now negative YTD.  PPers can feel vindicated.
by Tom
Thu Aug 20, 2015 10:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 18063

Re: No gains to be had

Today is looking good!  Nice bump in treasuries and gold, stocks having a tough time.
by Tom
Thu Aug 13, 2015 8:45 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 18063

Re: No gains to be had

In a nut shell when you mismatch time frames and try to use volatile assets for short term needs that is risk. I said year to year matters a little more to me since I'm all in (but have emergency cash outside of it), but didn't mean it's a huge factor.  It's for money that isn't neccesarily short t...
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 18063

Re: No gains to be had

Tom-Like any portfolio you can' t go by a year or even 2 or 3 years. You really need longer time frames because the daily action is almost random. Ytd i am up about 3% . But we had no real up cycle yet this year. I don't consider a 50/50 mix riskier .i consider it more volatile. Volatility is what ...
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:15 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Bask in the Awesomeness of Gold
Replies: 41
Views: 18295

Re: I Bask in the Awesomeness of Gold

Fred wrote: I sold $13k of company stock in my ESPP today and now I have to decide on whether to let it sit in cash or buy gold. I'm sitting at about 17% gold in the PP.

So what does your crystal ball say? Should I buy now or wait until re-balance time?
I'd wait until I hit the rebalance band.
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 18063

Re: No gains to be had

What ever percentages someone wants . The basic total market fund is about 75% s&p 500 so it is really up to the investor as to what allocations they want. Right now  i am about 50% equities with 10% of that international. The remaining 40% is about 1/2  fidelity blue chip growth and fidelity growt...
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:51 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: I Bask in the Awesomeness of Gold
Replies: 41
Views: 18295

Re: I Bask in the Awesomeness of Gold

Been a long time since we've seen a day like this.  Sure, it's only $1125, nothing to write home about, but PPers need to be feeling pretty good today about gold and bonds more than making up for the slide in stocks recently. I completely echo that sentiment.  Feels like good validation that we hol...
by Tom
Wed Aug 12, 2015 11:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 18063

Re: No gains to be had

mathjak107 wrote: No crystal ball needed. That is what makes up a typical diversified conventional portfolio. You buy it and rebalance it . No more crystal ball needed to guess market segamants than the pp
You didn't mention what percentages in each.
by Tom
Tue Aug 11, 2015 1:03 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: No gains to be had
Replies: 36
Views: 18063

Re: No gains to be had

In my opinion the portfolio is really doing it's job and today is good example.  It's been lagging, but no serious loss for the year and on days like today the asset no one would otherwise hold (LTTs) reacts to a world event (China devaluation) and gave it a good boost. The year is not over and the ...
by Tom
Wed Jul 22, 2015 4:15 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Perspective on the current drawdown
Replies: 67
Views: 23100

Re: Perspective on the current drawdown

Interesting article on how everything is relative (recency bias) http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Recency_bias TL;DR, when you enter the market shapes your opinions. If you enter at a downtime as it keeps going down, you're going to have a very different perspective than someone who had a large run up...
by Tom
Wed Jul 22, 2015 11:36 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Perspective on the current drawdown
Replies: 67
Views: 23100

Re: Perspective on the current drawdown

I'm down a little under 3% YTD.  I look at the PP as the "reality" mode of investing.  Seems like the market doesn't know where it's going and there's a lot of fear selling in treasuries and gold.  Gains in stocks are probably a result of over confidence.  I look at the small loss as the premium you...
by Tom
Tue Jul 21, 2015 3:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Predictions For The Bottom In Gold
Replies: 47
Views: 23817

Re: Predictions For The Bottom In Gold

$850
by Tom
Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:44 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The Permanent Portfolio is dead
Replies: 77
Views: 30757

Re: The Permanent Portfolio is dead

Beat to the punch.  Was gonna post this.  Everyone has already articulately outlined how they miss the point of why it's "permanent".  Constantly shifting to what you think the environment is or is going to be is not a strategy, it's playing roulette.
by Tom
Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:53 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: How bad was my timing?
Replies: 9
Views: 5103

Re: How bad was my timing?

It's tough to not have those thoughts and worries, but the idea is that over the course of a year and longer losses from one asset should balance out with gains in another or at the very least protect your overall portfolio from severe losses.  10% loss in one asset will be minimized by the overall ...