Search found 3338 matches

by Cortopassi
Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

pmward, do you still see gold getting bid? We've done this $1200 something to $1350 something dance now it seems for years. I know I am not really supposed to care, but if budd and mathjak are lurking, wonder what their thoughts are on the current 1 year comparison. There are few people who would ha...
by Cortopassi
Tue May 28, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 645475

Re: Stock scream room

pmward, I like your writing and insights. Wondering what your thoughts are regarding technical indicators becoming self fulfilling, since it seems so many people/algorithms use them? It *seems* there are plenty of bloggers (and shysters) who use these indicators very well, or to sell products, newsl...
by Cortopassi
Tue May 28, 2019 10:56 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Bond Convexity
Replies: 9
Views: 7909

Re: Bond Convexity

Tyler, I haven't browsed your site for a while -- My Portfolio that combines all charts onto a single page is amazing. Great improvements!
by Cortopassi
Thu May 23, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 42
Views: 35735

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

And given my reply about not dealing with the market, what's going on today causing the swings? More tariff BS?
by Cortopassi
Thu May 23, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: What have we learned over last 10 years?
Replies: 42
Views: 35735

Re: What have we learned over last 10 years?

What the PP has taught me: ** Not to obsess about my investments. 5 years ago I was scrambling. I was out of the market for a while, and into gold and gold stocks, which were not doing well. I rotated into and out of strategies, all ended up being losers. The PP has allowed me to removed 99% of my t...
by Cortopassi
Fri May 17, 2019 6:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

jhogue wrote:
Fri May 17, 2019 4:40 pm
I believe in having some of everything, but don't put all of my trust in any one thing.
Yes.

TLT is leading the pack in one year returns.

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by Cortopassi
Fri May 17, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

Guys, it's one day of a one week pull back. Your expectations are ridiculous. Gold is not going to go up every day or week that stocks are down. They are UNcorrelated not negatively correlated. I think the root of the frustrations with gold on this board are that people have unrealistic expectation...
by Cortopassi
Thu May 16, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 645475

Re: Stock scream room

Nothing short of all out nuclear war will shake this market for more than a few days/weeks. Amazing. Wonder what can cause an actual sustained downtrend.

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by Cortopassi
Mon May 13, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 645475

Re: Stock scream room

The best part of the PP, IMO, is a day like today.

When the financial media and talking heads are gnashing their teeth about the drop in the market, my PP is up a couple tenths and I can say meh.
by Cortopassi
Mon May 13, 2019 8:33 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

Today gold is working as hoped.
by Cortopassi
Thu May 09, 2019 8:25 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

Markets are down greatly in the past few days. A trade deal with China is in jeopardy. N Korea launched 2 missiles today. We're sending B52s and a carrier fleet towards Iran. And yet, gold is only up a fraction. What's up with this? This is how uncorrelated assets work. Some of you will say anythin...
by Cortopassi
Mon May 06, 2019 7:44 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

Trade war fears again, but sigh, no love for gold with this fear.
by Cortopassi
Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Wonder how the PP acts in this scenario....
Replies: 13
Views: 6219

Re: Wonder how the PP acts in this scenario....

Talking about bond rates, I've posted similar before, and still don't understand why the US 10 year is basically on par with a country like Italy?!? And not too much lower than Greece? https://i.imgur.com/bTofF3K.png It's purely supply and demand. Meaning as you go down the list, demand is higher? ...
by Cortopassi
Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Setting VP size
Replies: 11
Views: 5691

Re: Setting VP size

...without risking their core savings. Yeah, well that's the crux of it. I don't have anything that I wouldn't consider core savings, and I don't believe I will ever be in that position. Sure, you can go on a vacation here and there, buy some man cave stuff, go out to eat, etc. but when you look at...
by Cortopassi
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Wonder how the PP acts in this scenario....
Replies: 13
Views: 6219

Re: Wonder how the PP acts in this scenario....

Talking about bond rates, I've posted similar before, and still don't understand why the US 10 year is basically on par with a country like Italy?!? And not too much lower than Greece?

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by Cortopassi
Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Setting VP size
Replies: 11
Views: 5691

Re: Setting VP size

I think we're all pretty much on the same page. Mainly that a VP is a somewhat/completely different asset allocation from a PP, but is still passive. If we are talking active investing, trying to jump in and out of things based off whatever metrics, leveraged ETFs, options, etc -- that should be cal...
by Cortopassi
Sun Apr 28, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Setting VP size
Replies: 11
Views: 5691

Re: Setting VP size

Pmward, My comments are totally subjective based off my experience. I thought I had excellent knowledge of a few specific markets in the past where I made large bets. But without being on the inside, at least with individual issues, it was worse than flipping a coin, for me. I agree on your other po...
by Cortopassi
Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Setting VP size
Replies: 11
Views: 5691

Re: Setting VP size

Let me ask a basic question that hurt my returns for 20+ years. Why have a VP at all? I don't. Why do you think you can do better than a fund or ETF? Do you have insider information? Do you think you can time the market? Read charts? See that head and shoulder or cup and handle, or moving average cr...
by Cortopassi
Fri Apr 26, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

I am getting this mid-drive e-bike motor kit today. https://www.bafangusadirect.com/bafang-bbs02-750w-mid-drive-motor-kit-p/12.htm I live 4 miles from work, and I always want to bike here, but I hate that I get sweated up. This motor will allow me to get here without that, so at least I can do it m...
by Cortopassi
Fri Apr 26, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

I am getting this mid-drive e-bike motor kit today. https://www.bafangusadirect.com/bafang-bbs02-750w-mid-drive-motor-kit-p/12.htm I live 4 miles from work, and I always want to bike here, but I hate that I get sweated up. This motor will allow me to get here without that, so at least I can do it mo...
by Cortopassi
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:30 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

Budd is laughing all the way to the bank, with his mostly stock portfolio. Don, the thing is, I am guessing Budd is NOT laughing all the way to the bank. He agonizes over any loss, or any loss of added gain. I have moved past that. Money used to rule my day to day existence before the PP. Now it do...
by Cortopassi
Tue Apr 23, 2019 10:42 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:47 pm
but if it keeps them from bad investor behavior then great
That is my 99.9% my original reason in getting into the PP and continues to be and it works great for me. I am 100% sure with the way my wife and I save that I could be retired now if I had started the PP 25 years ago.
by Cortopassi
Tue Apr 23, 2019 3:37 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

There's no denying that. But how do you think stock heavy portfolio holders were feeling on Christmas Eve (Orange S&P, blue is my PP variant): https://i.imgur.com/PH79VKp.png And this year has been an amazing turnaround. https://i.imgur.com/d34pumZ.png PP is doing just fine. A bit over 6% YTD for me...
by Cortopassi
Mon Apr 22, 2019 9:39 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk
Replies: 5
Views: 9819

Re: 100% stocks with almost no downside risk

I always "wanted" to do married puts. A few years ago I went back through 25 years of trades and verified if I had them, it would have improved my return significantly. Not from added gains, but protection from losses. At the implied volatility, with the ITM put at 205, you are correct, there seems ...
by Cortopassi
Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1657223

Re: The GOLD scream room

And you can't eat it!

Ahh, the 20% drop in stocks is so quickly forgotten. Let's cherry pick some dates:

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