Search found 164 matches
- Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:08 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 59762
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
I'll be nibbling at stocks on a regular (weekly) schedule, dualstow, I forget your plan. Is that nibble a long term increase plan or micro rebalancing or what? Choice #1. It’s not so much rebalancing as a long term plan to continue to accumulate stocks, pp or not, while I’m still relatively young. ...
- Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:02 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 59762
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
I'll be nibbling at stocks on a regular (weekly) schedule, but I think the dumbest thing I can do is make that equity-heavy fantasy a reality, even if stocks continue to drop. My thought for the day is stay the course. dualstow, I forget your plan. Is that nibble a long term increase plan or micro ...
- Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:53 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Is the PP going to hold up?
- Replies: 114
- Views: 59762
Re: Is the PP going to hold up?
Let me be clear, I am not advocating buying BTC but merely pointing out on a day where the DOW fell 1000+ points BTC rose 10% while Gold only 0.24% That doesn't seem unusual to anyone on this forum? Think about that for a moment. I thought about it again and it still seems congruous with zero corre...
- Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:32 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock scream room
- Replies: 1438
- Views: 670129
Re: Stock scream room
Where are the tweets? Where is Trump? Aren't the democrats, illegals, someone somewhere responsible for this HUGE stock market drop? >:D Here's your tweet, corto. I can't tell who he's blaming after all. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/961253168968622086 In the “old days,” when good news...
- Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:57 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1787889
Re: The GOLD scream room
Thanks all, definitely frustrated but you are correct nothing outside the PP norm. Just once make me feel good about holding 25% in Gold. Show me why... Somehow gold has saved some other people’s asses two decades out of the last five. That’s not bad! Does it feel good even then? I wouldn’t know bu...
- Tue Feb 06, 2018 7:54 pm
- Forum: Gold
- Topic: The GOLD scream room
- Replies: 3693
- Views: 1787889
Re: The GOLD scream room
I understand the frustration but I just don’t think anyone ever promised it would work that way on a daily basis. The whole premise is low correlation and in the case of gold, like stuper said, zero correlation, not negative. The benefits unfold slowwwwly, but in return you never have to touch it an...
- Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:37 pm
- Forum: Stocks
- Topic: Stock scream room
- Replies: 1438
- Views: 670129
Re: Stock scream room
Great discounts to invest your tax cuts into
- Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:32 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Time to dump stocks and buy gold?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 5872
Re: Time to dump stocks and buy gold?
Interesting chart. I'm not familiar with that commodities index, but the ratio of gold alone to the S&P 500 is much different.
- Wed Jan 31, 2018 12:05 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Flat yield curve and switching to intermediate Treasuries
- Replies: 38
- Views: 22309
Re: Flat yield curve and switching to intermediate Treasuries
So if I tax-loss harvest my Treasuries, do I just buy a different CUSIP , even if the maturity date is only different by 1 month? Is that "different enough" for the IRS? I don't want to be disallowed due to wash sale rules. I was wondering the same thing and looked around the other day. T...
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:46 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 308374
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
I love the PP, but for the investor who does not prefer to set it and forget it until each January, I think GEM makes a great pair with gold for dealing with the ebbs and flows of the dollar. Are we about to see a several year run of ex-US stocks outperforming? Who knows. GEM doesn't care. This arti...
- Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:37 am
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 308374
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
It's pretty straightforward, just need the last 10 months and the last 20 trading days of returns for each asset class. It does trade a little bit more than GEM, but not a terrible amount, roughly 3x per year. On the other hand you are in 2 asset classes nearly all the time so there is less risk of...
- Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:01 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 308374
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
2009 is a textbook case for your second question. Looking at the graph you can see GEM got out after a few months of downturn while the market kept dropping a few more months. Other times there is no clear trend and GEM can whipsaw in and out and miss upturns. GEM seems to do just as well on its ow...
- Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:41 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 308374
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
Ocho - You could always measure the daily volatility for the prior month and if it is over some target threshold (maybe 20% annualized) scale your GEM holdings down based on that. That could possibly prevent losing too much during a flash 1987 event. IG Thanks for the suggestion, IG. When ocho ment...
- Sat Jan 13, 2018 12:51 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 308374
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
It depends on the specifics of the bear and there is no one answer. Is there a long discernible downward trend to rise or is the market jumping up and down causing whipsaws in and out? Are the US and ex-US markets facing the same stress or is one stronger than the other? I’m sure there are other fac...
- Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:35 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 390497
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
The irony is global ex-US markets are outperforming over the referenced time frame.
- Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:55 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 390497
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
The “I resign/No you’re fired” bit keeps the comedy rolling (Bannon, Omarosa, surely more to come over the course of the administration). Only to be outdone by the “Resign/I resign/Not accepted” bit. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/us/politics/trump-sessions-russia-mcgahn.html The president fired...
- Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:52 pm
- Forum: Bonds
- Topic: Google sheets and WSJ bond prices
- Replies: 2
- Views: 5788
Re: Google sheets and WSJ bond prices
Same here. It seems to be a glitch on the google servers, because changing the query at all then changing it back is enough to get it to work again.
- Sat Dec 30, 2017 9:02 am
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: 2017 PP Return Poll
- Replies: 33
- Views: 19564
Re: 2017 PP Return Poll
Surprisingly my Google Finance paper portfolio is still working, despite the shutdown announced for mid November. Here is the pure 4x25 starting January 1, 2016, dividends not reinvested, showing a 10.3% return. The stocks portion is IYY. Ignore the overall return column, as I believe it is price ga...
- Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:19 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Market crash strategy: Cash, Bitcoin, land, deflation vs inflation
- Replies: 16
- Views: 9965
Re: Market crash strategy: Cash, Bitcoin, land, deflation vs inflation
I think I must be getting too old...these types of questions I just don't understand. (Please tell me the future and do all the analysis for me, no problem right? If someone actually serious about this with their real hard earned money on the line, I'd think they would want to do their own research...
- Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:43 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Market crash strategy: Cash, Bitcoin, land, deflation vs inflation
- Replies: 16
- Views: 9965
Re: Market crash strategy: Cash, Bitcoin, land, deflation vs inflation
Sign me up for when Kbg's book of eclectic investing strategies comes out. Unlike many resources advising a single way, Kbg has something for everyone.
- Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:54 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Out of balance
- Replies: 55
- Views: 30534
Re: Out of balance
Do you have any cash you could use to buy gold outside retirement accounts? Holding gold in a retirement account is not ideal anyway because that converts capital gains into ordinary income when you take it out. Wouldn’t that be effectively taxed as ordinary income either way due to the collectible...
- Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:08 pm
- Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Out of balance
- Replies: 55
- Views: 30534
Re: Out of balance
I'd have no problem buying a bit more stocks, Jack. Stocks could do well for the next five years (I've been listening to Robert Shiller). It's not like you're betting the farm on stocks. Still, if your stocks are at 26% and gold is at 15%, shouldn't you be buying gold? If it's 401k constraints that...
- Tue Dec 12, 2017 5:05 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 308374
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
Stockcharts.com is majorly ratcheting up the ads lately. I wish fidelity’s charts had a perfchart total return option. It looks like the etf comparison page Market 1yr total return would suffice.
- Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:57 pm
- Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
- Topic: Tactical Asset Allocation + HBPP an intriguing combo
- Replies: 500
- Views: 308374
Re: Dual Momentum GEM + HBPP a great combo, easy to test
I updated my back test with monthly GSPC prices from yahoo (and continued to add Shiller dividends). Much better to use that than Shiller’s daily average for this model. It now matches Anonacci’s returns much more closely back to 1970. I am satisfied that the remaining differences are accounted by c...
- Sun Dec 03, 2017 6:51 pm
- Forum: Other Discussions
- Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
- Replies: 958
- Views: 390497
Re: Trump as tragicomedy
The article goes on to recount, move by move, how the investigation itself was a set-up designed to manufacture a crime. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-03/what-media-isnt-telling-you-about-indictment-mike-flynn Thanks for the link, Maddy. If Yates’s motivation was as the article describes an...