To me gold looks like it's just consolidating it's gains in a pennant But if we consider the below rising wedge that has been crossed from above already ? A daily chart of Xetra-Gold (guess resembles GLD/IAU), starting from beginning of March : Xetra-GLD.jpg This is something worth taking note of.....

Also worth keeping an eye on small caps. This is the spread between IWM and SPY. I was thinking (for a while) that actually there might be only 2 quite distinct strategies. Guess there are many different implementations of the first, but all they sound like "consider the top-performer (QQQ/SPY...

But they [the Fed] really only have any control over the short end of the curve. Didn’t the Fed start purchasing longer-term Treasuries (among other types of securities) in March? If they can purchase Treasuries of any duration, that means they can influence all parts of the yield curve, doesn’t it...

I got an email 30 min before market close advising me to sell. Emotionally very easy. Push the button, logoff. But I knew it was coming based on the moving average Paul uses. Ochotona, I was looking at Paul Novell's website after reading your posts and couldn't find some info. The coronavirus decli...

I've been thinking of shortening duration, but not completely getting out. Do you consider moving to ITTs ? What WA duration are you thinking of ? It might be move worth to be done, given future perspectives. Though for the time being there might be not that many indicators for such necessity, and ...

My SCV fund was up 6.06% today so under-performers are finally closing the gap on the SP500 albeit they have some more work to do. It will be interesting to watch Gold’s reaction to the latest earnings beat(s). To me gold looks like it's just consolidating it's gains in a pennant like formation bet...

I wonder how small of a portfolio is too small? As well as the Russell 1000 Growth ETF has done the past 10 years, the Russell Top 200 Growth has done even better. But that only holds 127 stocks. The top 10 stocks are 50% of the portfolio and the other 190 round out the fund. Microsoft is 11% of th...

So is it a bad decision to go with something like the Russell 1000 Growth ETF (VONG) instead of a Total Market Index which will contain a lot of utility and consumer staples etc? If you think the Total Market Index is too highly concentrated though, don't look at the LC growth indexes which are alm...

So is it a bad decision to go with something like the Russell 1000 Growth ETF (VONG) instead of a Total Market Index which will contain a lot of utility and consumer staples etc? If you think the Total Market Index is too highly concentrated though, don't look at the LC growth indexes which are alm...

If you are an accredited investor, Artemis is a good long vol company worth looking at, and I'm a fan of Dunn for CTA's. If you're not an accredited investor, the PP is probably the closest you can come to this portfolio. I've done the high-level task of requesting monthly returns from Dunn, import...

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broadeningformation.asp Thanks, pm. Indeed, looks like the end of calm buy-and-hold days (guess there are some buy-and-hold strategies like PP that will suffer less, but still..). Now reading "Trading: Technical Analysis Masterclass: Master the financial ma...

This is called a megaphone pattern. Was not aware of it, looks like some extremely expanded Bollinger Bands with huge period.. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/broadeningformation.asp The real interesting thing here is that it's on a monthly chart. Megaphones are extremely rare on the monthly c...

So here is the construction of the 'dragon portfolio' Atermis offers. I am color blind but it looks like ~20% each: - equity-linked -gold -long vol -fixed income -commodity trend So gold seems straight forward. Fixed income would be a diversified bond or dividend paying stock portfolio? What is com...

Up 11% this morning. Nice!! at the beginning of the month it was 44.68 - 70.31 as of today Now when to sell or do I buy more - crazy - I hate it I would never make it as a stock picker - When you have a big winner like that, it's best to look at your position like a trend follower. You want to use ...

Am I the only one that gets more tempted to *BUY* bonds the more I hear people on forums hating on them??? Usually, the contrarian indicator goes that whatever is the most hated asset on Internet forums at the moment is the one most likely to go up. I normally am the same way. I frickin love my LTT...

So it goes way beyond U.S. vs. International. My read on this is that it's kind of Jack Bogle's old arguments for owning only TSM if you're a U.S.-based investor writ large. U.S.-based mega-corporations, since the '08 crisis, have become irreversibly dominant, at least in the short run. The fact th...

Am I the only one that gets more tempted to *BUY* bonds the more I hear people on forums hating on them??? Usually, the contrarian indicator goes that whatever is the most hated asset on Internet forums at the moment is the one most likely to go up. I have been thinking of posting the same thing. I...

until we test all-time highs. It's really weird for me how quick the market has changed its sentiment. It's simply how markets work. The same thing happened back in Feb. Sentiment was great even though everyone knew the risks. Then one day it flipped on a dime. The market going up doesn't mean all ...

Am I the only one that gets more tempted to *BUY* bonds the more I hear people on forums hating on them??? Usually, the contrarian indicator goes that whatever is the most hated asset on Internet forums at the moment is the one most likely to go up.

boglerdude wrote: ↑Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:17 am Why has international underperformed. Why do markets keep getting it wrong

Why do you assume markets are getting it wrong? What makes your opinion right and the consensus view of all market participants wrong?

An update here to the small/large spread chart from this weekend. Notice how the spread has now not only set a higher high, but also busted above it's 50 day moving average. Also see how RSI is now up at 60 and still increasing. The small cap mean reversion trade has been going well for me so far. s...

At the end of the day I'm personally inclined to limit my dabbling to 5% of the 25% stock allocation being in VEU. The volatility of the individual PP components is entertaining enough to watch without adding unnecessary complexity. The one thing to keep in mind (and I bring this up simply because ...

"Should we also keep less in foreign stocks? As I’ve noted before, many U.S. investors seem to believe U.S. stocks are both higher returning and lower risk. If true, this would violate perhaps the most fundamental rule of finance—that risk and expected return are inextricably linked." It's...

International stocks have been dead on the mat with no sign of life for over a decade now. I think it would be unwise to put money into them until they at least show some sign of life. They are currently cheap and underperforming for a reason. Just because something is cheap doesn't mean it has to ...

International stocks have been dead on the mat with no sign of life for over a decade now. I think it would be unwise to put money into them until they at least show some sign of life. They are currently cheap and underperforming for a reason. Just because something is cheap doesn't mean it has to g...