Search found 689 matches

by BearBones
Sat Feb 20, 2016 8:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Big Googly Brother
Replies: 14
Views: 9556

Re: Big Googly Brother

Thanks, you all. Will try DDG and Startpage. Anyone pay for a private VPN?
by BearBones
Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:16 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Buying CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 10211

Re: Buying CDs

Thanks, Austen. I take notes from the better things I see posted here, and I am saving that one. Nicely explained.
by BearBones
Fri Feb 19, 2016 5:58 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Buying CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 10211

Re: Buying CDs

Austen Heller wrote: If rates stay the same, you will still get capital gains from 'riding the yield curve'.
Nice analysis. Thanks. Can you explain this?
by BearBones
Fri Feb 19, 2016 4:47 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Alternatives to Physical Gold
Replies: 11
Views: 6912

Re: Alternatives to Physical Gold

Libertarian666 wrote: Really the first question to answer is "why is physical gold unacceptable?"
The same reason that buying 30 year bonds and administering a 1-5 year treasury ladder is unacceptable to many. Just harder, and at some point we all sin  :)
by BearBones
Fri Feb 19, 2016 9:09 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41542

Re: Question for Melveyr

I'm just now starting to fund my IRA's after neglecting them for years. I have a solo 401k set up for my business (roth option through vanguard, expenses are high though) and some personal Roth IRAs. how big of a difference is it to just do a 4x25 portfolio for each account? It would be much more s...
by BearBones
Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:29 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Alternatives to Physical Gold
Replies: 11
Views: 6912

Re: Alternatives to Physical Gold

IAU large and lowest of ERs.

PHYS (formerly GTU) for some in taxable account so can harvest gains with least taxes.
by BearBones
Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41542

Re: Question for Melveyr

I hope the above is a helpful summary.  Ryan, if there's anything I missed please comment! Very nice summary, Sophie. Thanks! Yes, I think that many of us bought into the PP when gold was hot. Many are disillusioned by "tracking error" (i.e., doubt, jealousy) and have turned toward equities again. ...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 17, 2016 8:38 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: VoIP
Replies: 14
Views: 7843

Re: VoIP

Obi200 http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00BUV7C9A/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=B00BUV7C9A&linkCode=as2&tag=obihatechn-20 Love that amazing little thing! Pair with Googlevoice number and for <$50 have free landline. No ongoing fees. Can add e911 for <$1 a month.
by BearBones
Tue Feb 16, 2016 7:44 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Demographics and the Stock Market
Replies: 16
Views: 12227

Re: Demographics and the Stock Market

Really nice post. MT, you more than anyone have helped me with my phobia of intermediate and long term treasuries.
by BearBones
Mon Feb 15, 2016 2:50 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Red flags for infidelity
Replies: 28
Views: 11401

Re: Red flags for infidelity

Pointedstick wrote: Thanks everyone. Sadly the vaccine isn't approved for people younger than 50
Given at 1 year. And can be given again later if no evidence of immunity.
http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/h ... adult.html
by BearBones
Mon Feb 15, 2016 10:54 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41542

Re: Question for Melveyr

Not so much here on this forum but many gold holders were betting on a big inflation coming because of charts like this... The idea was that banks lend in direct proportion to the amount of reserves that they have, and that once things returned to normal we would have an explosion of credit and spe...
by BearBones
Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41542

Re: Question for Melveyr

Might as well ask here. Elsewhere you said, "I found that the main advocates for gold were using old models that have already been proven wrong." Can you elaborate a bit more?
by BearBones
Mon Feb 15, 2016 5:51 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41542

Re: Question for Melveyr

Appreciate your quick response, Melveyr. And the comments of others. As you are aware, Tyler has created PortfolioCharts and suggested the Golden Butterfly. I am thinking about the derivation below. Regardless, I assume you would replace the treasuries with intermediate and ditch the gold? And you w...
by BearBones
Sun Feb 14, 2016 1:14 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Question for Melveyr
Replies: 81
Views: 41542

Question for Melveyr

I don't think the PP is a good strategy right now. The PP is only different from BH strategy because it advocates for a bond barbell and gold ownership; neither make sense to me now. Holding an intermediate term bond portfolio instead of the cash/ltt has a higher sharpe ratio and I am very confiden...
by BearBones
Sun Feb 14, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Inflation or deflation?
Replies: 1
Views: 1484

Inflation or deflation?

If its price has been severely inflated, then this must be one of the cases of hidden inflation that everyone is always whispering about, since given the enormous increase in central bank balance sheets in the last 10 years or so, gold doesn't look severely inflated to me. This is an argument for i...
by BearBones
Sat Feb 13, 2016 2:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 101
Views: 47919

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

If its price has been severely inflated, then this must be one of the cases of hidden inflation that everyone is always whispering about, since given the enormous increase in central bank balance sheets in the last 10 years or so, gold doesn't look severely inflated to me. Can you explain more? Sur...
by BearBones
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:34 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?
Replies: 21
Views: 10087

Re: Safe withdrawal rate when you have a mortgage?

I do not think that a mortgage should be compared to the average back tested performance of your entire investment portfolio. Paying off a mortgage is equivalent to a guaranteed and safe investment return of that rate (post tax equivalent). As close as we can get to a guaranteed and safe return is f...
by BearBones
Sat Feb 13, 2016 10:04 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 101
Views: 47919

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

Whether or not gold will depreciate, it is these low-yield times that make it easy for me to buy it. After all, the argument often goes that gold "just sits there." If my savings were earning 5%, I'd have to think hard about it, but right now my cash is just sitting there. With savings "earning" ne...
by BearBones
Fri Feb 12, 2016 1:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany
Replies: 101
Views: 47919

Re: ultra low / negative interest rates in Germany

As Ben Bernanke noted some time ago (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/Speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm#fn18), central banks can prevent deflation in any country by printing money. Of course the eventual result of this policy will be the destruction of the currency, but they believe that th...
by BearBones
Thu Feb 11, 2016 7:16 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161363

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

You are right, cash at -1% is no good.  That is when I will be be turning to the Nickel Plan... Once your basement is full of nickels, you are set... Kyle Bass tried this a few years ago, but back then it made even more sense, since the nickel's melt value was higher than 5 cents; this is no longer...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 10, 2016 8:36 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161363

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

So pardon if this is totally ignorant. But where is my logic flawed below? So if treasuries are turning negative, doesn't this mean severe deflation? Where else to move the money? Stocks, real estate, gold are all losing value vs the currency. The value of virtually everything you own plummets so ev...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:40 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161363

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Ah, so STT even worse, so institutions still buy longer term treasuries! Boy I feel stupid. Back when this forum was in its infancy there were such high level discussions of economics and such things. Now feel like many of the newer folks are asking the same questions all over again and things aren'...
by BearBones
Wed Feb 03, 2016 2:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Maximum Bond Upside
Replies: 278
Views: 161363

Re: Maximum Bond Upside

Haven't read this thread thoroughly, and may have asked this before. But why ever own a neg yielding bond when you can own cash?
by BearBones
Wed Feb 03, 2016 1:27 pm
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Golden Butterfly Portfolio
Replies: 539
Views: 350268

Re: Golden Butterfly Portfolio

I came up with this variant of the GB, and I like it... Like it too! More of a bogleheads-tilted GB. I've been playing with the charts and am favoring this for an IRA. Not as SHTF/1970s-repeat protection, but seems pretty safe with higher CAGR.                   CAGR    Worst Yr      Longest DD PP ...
by BearBones
Tue Feb 02, 2016 9:18 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Buying CDs
Replies: 11
Views: 10211

Re: Buying CDs

MediumTex wrote: Is this a better option than $5,000 in ibonds?
No. But maxed on iBonds with 10k via TD and 5k via refund on taxes.
Looking for another place for deep cash. Thanks for helping.