Search found 257 matches

by Pet Hog
Fri Jul 07, 2023 3:05 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond
Replies: 31
Views: 19975

Re: What to do with a Low-Yielding 30-Year Bond

I'm in the same boat as Maddy. I bought 30-year treasuries in February 2021, yielding 1.875%. Today, each $1000 bond is worth about $640, and that $18.75 annual coupon isn't helping very much to make up for the 36% decline. Nevertheless, if I hold to maturity I'll get the $360 back over 27.5 years, ...
by Pet Hog
Tue Jul 04, 2023 5:46 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold ETF Placement
Replies: 9
Views: 3521

Re: Gold ETF Placement

Not sure if it's well known around these parts, but capital gains from the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) are taxed at the capital gains rate (0, 15, or 20%) if an extra form is filed with your tax return. See here . The expense ratio is a bit high at 0.41%, but the savings could be significant w...
by Pet Hog
Fri May 05, 2023 11:33 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23
Replies: 33
Views: 14729

Re: New I-Bond Rate for 5/1/23 to 10/31/23

My notes from the Vanguard phone call. 1) Auctions are held with this frequency for the following length T-Bills: Once a week - one month, two months, three months, four months, six months Once a month - one year, two years, three year, five years, seven years, ten years Once a quarter - 20 years, ...
by Pet Hog
Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:00 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Replies: 40
Views: 33728

Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.

Once inflation gets below 2%, that's the time to back up the truck for LT bonds. I think this reasoning would make sense if the yield curve wasn't so inverted. I suspect that by the time inflation is below 2% the yield on the 30-year will be much closer to 2% itself. Today it's at 3.55%. At the end...
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 03, 2023 6:18 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 Returns
Replies: 44
Views: 22113

Re: 2022 Returns

For my 4x25 PP, still in accumulation phase, I got -12.30% nominal, with 7.11% inflation (November to November), so -19.41% real. Yuck. Numbers below from yahoo (using adjusted close prices, meaning dividends reinvested): VTI -19.52% TLT -31.23% IAU -0.63% SHY -3.88% ----------- 4x25 PP: -13.82% (-2...
by Pet Hog
Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:24 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 211
Views: 167048

Re: What's going on with silver?

Pet Hog wrote:
Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:14 am
I think I'll swap some gold for silver if it cracks 100.
Pet Hog wrote:
Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:37 am
Still, I'm waiting for 100:1.
I wish I had acted on gold and silver when I made those two posts. They both signaled the top. Next time I post that I'm waiting for 100:1, slap me down!
by Pet Hog
Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:18 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: When is it time to load up on bonds.
Replies: 40
Views: 33728

Re: When is it time to load up on bonds.

I'm hoping that the greater-than-4% yields for the six-month to seven-year treasuries are going to give the PP a solid basis for the next few years. I'm hoping to lock in some decent yields. I don't know about the 30-year, but my gut says 4% will be about as high as it goes before the economy suffer...
by Pet Hog
Fri Oct 07, 2022 10:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Breitbart logo on this website url
Replies: 5
Views: 1515

Re: Breitbart logo on this website url

I Shrugged wrote:
Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:52 pm
I don’t know what you call the symbol that appears next to the site name...
For your edification, and mine, it's called a favicon.
by Pet Hog
Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:44 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: PHYS selling at a premium
Replies: 6
Views: 2957

Re: PHYS selling at a premium

Right now PHYS is trading at a discount to NAV: -2.03%. See here at the Sprott website. Since about June 2018 it has been trading in the range from 0% to -2%, so it looks like it might be at a low.
by Pet Hog
Mon Aug 29, 2022 10:37 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 211
Views: 167048

Re: What's going on with silver?

Gold-to-silver ratio at around 93:1 today. 94:1 if you use the numbers from yahoo (currently $1750.10/$18.58). After my previous post it hovered around this level for a couple of weeks before dropping to 87-ish. Would have been about a 6% gain. Still, I'm waiting for 100:1. If we're going to have re...
by Pet Hog
Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: What happened to Sophie?
Replies: 9
Views: 1535

Re: What happened to Sophie?

Glad to know you're well, Sophie. For me, you've always been one of the most thoughtful and eloquent posters, and your contributions have been missed.
by Pet Hog
Sun Jul 31, 2022 2:42 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset
Replies: 20
Views: 7374

Re: I Bonds’s new variable rate will rise to 9.62% with the May reset

... Treasury Direct is now accepting certification by notary public. That would be great. I've been having the same problems as GT's wife. The last time I tried to get my identification verified (in April), my credit union, and several big-name banks where I have accounts, refused to stamp the form...
by Pet Hog
Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:14 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: What's going on with silver?
Replies: 211
Views: 167048

Re: What's going on with silver?

Gold-to-silver ratio in the 90s again, first time in two years. About 92:1 right now. I think I'll swap some gold for silver if it cracks 100.

https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/price-r ... ver/3year/
by Pet Hog
Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:18 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: PHYS selling at a premium
Replies: 6
Views: 2957

Re: PHYS selling at a premium

How are you tracking current premium/discount to NAV for PHYS? I was using that Sprott URL. And also checking the price ratio of IAU to PHYS. It's rare to see PHYS trade at a premium to NAV, but it was doing so consistently on Friday, not just a spike at closing. Because the discount has been avera...
by Pet Hog
Fri Apr 01, 2022 1:55 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: PHYS selling at a premium
Replies: 6
Views: 2957

PHYS selling at a premium

PHYS is, at this minute, trading at a premium of +0.20%. It usually trades at a discount (2020 was the last year where it meaningfully traded for several weeks at a premium), so now might be a good time to get out of it if anyone has been thinking of going to a less expensive ETF or physical. Just a...
by Pet Hog
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:07 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 61
Views: 12590

Re: I Bonds for Permanent Portfolio

But that 7.12% for six months is psychologically tempting! At this time, I see little likelihood that the new interest rate will be much different than the current 7.12%, but you never know until it happens. The new I-Bond rate will be set on May 1, using the CPI-U numbers from September 2021 (274....
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 25, 2022 5:10 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: It's all about China
Replies: 123
Views: 63177

Re: It's all about China

Its easy to get people off farms and into construction/office work. Not easy to get them to code <irony> I'm not so sure. As a wise man once said , "Anyone who can go down 300 to 3000 feet in a mine sure in hell can learn how to program as well. Give me a break. Anybody who can thrown coal into a f...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:13 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56363

Re: Yay PP!

I, for one, enjoy reading mathjak's posts even if I don't always agree with them. I've learned from him and I hope that we have a big enough tent here not to drive him away. I agree with what you concisely stated above. I, too, like reading dissenting views on this forum. None of us knows the futur...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 21, 2022 8:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 9294

Re: 2022 PP predictions

Pet Hog wrote:
Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:48 pm
PP: slightly down (guessing -3% nominal)
Just here to gloat about how my accurate my prediction was! (I reached -3% nominal today.)

Umm ... bodes well from here on in!
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 18, 2022 10:04 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Yay PP!
Replies: 268
Views: 56363

Re: Yay PP!

Kitces looked into rebalancing . Assuming a 50/50 with an average of 10% a year on equities and bonds averaging 5% , over 30 years the 50/50 would become 80/20 just letting assets drift https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-rebalancing-usually-reduces-long-term-returns-but-is-good-risk-management-anyway/...
by Pet Hog
Thu Jan 06, 2022 7:25 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 30270

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

I agree, Kevin, this year looks daunting. Making around 12% nominal with the PP seems like an impossible joke.
by Pet Hog
Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:55 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"
Replies: 135
Views: 30270

Re: The PP, marginal utility, and investment "faith"

Smith, sorry for your loss. I've never been in your situation, but I did receive a windfall once that doubled my PP and I recall the nervousness of placing what, at the time, seemed like huge trades. I have a few thoughts. One, think of your portfolio in terms of percentages, not dollars. The PP (fo...
by Pet Hog
Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:48 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2022 PP predictions
Replies: 44
Views: 9294

2022 PP predictions

Putting these predictions out there for ridicule come 2023! Stocks: down (guessing -20%) LTTs: down (guessing -20%) Gold: up (guessing +25%) Cash: up (guessing +5%) ----- PP: slightly down (guessing -3% nominal) ----- Rationale: Pandemic -- over or ignored Inflation -- high because of short supply S...
by Pet Hog
Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:52 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2021 PP Returns
Replies: 30
Views: 6035

Re: 2021 PP Returns

My 2021 data point. I'm a traditionalist, 4x25.

Nominal return: 5.14%
Inflation: 6.81%
Real return: -1.67%

Damn that inflation!
by Pet Hog
Tue Aug 10, 2021 8:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Solution: How to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k
Replies: 1
Views: 665

Solution: How to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k

I recall (but can't find it) there being some discussion here, many moons ago, about all the jumping through hoops needed to contribute online to a Fidelity solo 401k. In the past I have mailed a check, deposited a check at a Fidelity branch, or ACH'd money to a Fidelity checking account then called...