Search found 257 matches

by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?
Replies: 6
Views: 4162

Wise move to sell LTTs and buy new 30-years?

I have a question that you all might have some idea about. I own two lots of LTTs, with 27 and 28 years left to maturity. I bought them with yields of about 3%. Each price today is over $140. Both gained around 7% on Friday. Crazy! Let's say I bought $10,000 of bonds. Now they're worth $14,000. If I...
by Pet Hog
Sat Mar 07, 2020 4:23 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Negative interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 24506

Re: Negative interest rates

From a quick google search I found that, according to this chart , there are $1.46 trillion US dollars in circulation (paper money, greenbacks). According to this PBS article , the population of the US is 331 million. That means each person could hold, on average, about $4400 in cash. What that tell...
by Pet Hog
Sat Feb 29, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 14
Views: 10398

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Along with yesterday's big decrease in the price of gold, PHYS traded most of the day with a big discount. I added to my holdings (from IAU) when the discount was 2.38%. I'll be looking to exit next week if the discount shrinks or evaporates. According to the chart at the bottom of this page , the d...
by Pet Hog
Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 15
Views: 13558

Re: Another solid January

Don wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 9:23 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:12 pm
Odd that stocks were the loser of the month. Usually, January is a very good time to own stocks.
Coronavirus
If you see my initial post in this thread, stocks have not been consistently good in January in recent years. Whereas, gold has been outstanding.
by Pet Hog
Sat Feb 01, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Another solid January
Replies: 15
Views: 13558

Re: Another solid January

January did it again.

Numbers below are Jan 31 closing price, Dec 31 adjusted closing price, and %change.

VTI 163.52 163.62 -0.06
TLT 145.90 135.48 +7.69
IAU 15.17 14.50 +4.62
SHY 85.12 84.63 +0.58

PP January 2020: (-0.06 + 7.69 + 4.62 + 0.58)/4 = +3.16%
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 14
Views: 10398

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

January appears to be the strongest month of the year. Image from this article.

Image
by Pet Hog
Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:45 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: Spikes in Premium on PHYS
Replies: 14
Views: 10398

Re: Spikes in Premium on PHYS

Well spotted! With no obvious end-of-day spike relative to other gold ETFs, perhaps we are finally truly getting into premium territory. I'll probably sell if the premium gets above 1%, but will keep an eye on the price and not rush it. It's not been above 1% since November 2016. Thanks for the head...
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 10, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Forum / Team?
Replies: 17
Views: 7696

Re: Forum / Team?

Pointedstick wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:28 am
You must harden your heart and crush them remorselessly if you want to preserve your society.
I imagine Pointedstick saying this line in this style.
by Pet Hog
Fri Jan 10, 2020 4:40 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: New all-time high
Replies: 30
Views: 17936

Re: New all-time high

Sure, Vinny -- it does seem like a good time for an update. I'm at an all-time high again. It looked like the PP had peaked in early September 2019, but it ended the year with a surge during the the last few trading days. My PP gained a nominal 16.7% in 2019 (about 14.3% real -- I'll know more accur...
by Pet Hog
Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Golden Butterfly
Replies: 28
Views: 10384

Re: Golden Butterfly

I believe WiseOne means "40% bands" for the PP as 0.25 ± 40% (or 0.25 ± 0.10, from 0.35 to 0.15). And "30% bands" for the GB as 0.20 ± 30% (or 0.20 ± 0.06, from 0.26 to 0.14).
by Pet Hog
Thu Dec 26, 2019 2:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Asset locations
Replies: 46
Views: 14890

Re: Asset locations

Somehow the section from the book on Tax Deferred Accounts that I put here did not show up? "Tax-Deferred Accounts (Speaking of gold, bullion is taxed as a “collectible” at a special high 28% capital gains rate, so there is an advantage to holding it inside an IRA.) I believe this line from the boo...
by Pet Hog
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8791

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

The logic here is flawed about if rates go up ...selling a bond that lost value because rates went up and losing money is no different then selling a losing stock and buying something you think is better .... a loss is a loss and it does not come back ...you just. Hope what you buy next be it anoth...
by Pet Hog
Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:44 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
Replies: 24
Views: 12552

Re: Help me get over my fear of LTTs

I agree with mathjak that it's the same. TLT holds 38 different bonds in a ladder. See the Portfolio/Holdings section here . Buying that ETF is akin to you holding the same ladder. It shouldn't make a difference if you rebalance your PP by buying treasuries directly or buying them through TLT. Ther...
by Pet Hog
Sat Dec 14, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP
Replies: 19
Views: 8791

Re: Buying and maintaining the LT bonds part of the PP

1. The only bond with 30-year maturity is https://www.boerse-berlin.com/index.php/Bonds?isin=DE0001102481. It has a 0% coupon and trades at a discount. Does all that matter? I think in theory it doesn't matter what the coupon is -- positive, zero, or negative. All that matters is the volatility. Th...
by Pet Hog
Fri Dec 13, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Podcasts
Replies: 80
Views: 28165

Re: Podcasts

Guy dismantles the first chapter of Why We Sleep , via Tyler Cowen . Thanks, Kriegsspiel. That's a well articulated critique. This smackdown is exactly how peer review should work, but I think (from personal experience -- when I was a chemistry postdoc I must have reviewed hundreds of manuscripts) ...
by Pet Hog
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Selling long term bonds to rebalance?
Replies: 1
Views: 1892

Re: Selling long term bonds to rebalance?

That's what I intend to do (although I'm targeting a 25-to-30-year range). Longer-maturity bonds have greater volatility, and that's what we are trying to take advantage of with the PP strategy. I guess there might be tax considerations that would favor selling longer-maturity holdings, so you shoul...
by Pet Hog
Thu Dec 12, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
Replies: 24
Views: 12552

Re: Help me get over my fear of LTTs

I agree with mathjak that it's the same. TLT holds 38 different bonds in a ladder. See the Portfolio/Holdings section here . Buying that ETF is akin to you holding the same ladder. It shouldn't make a difference if you rebalance your PP by buying treasuries directly or buying them through TLT. There...
by Pet Hog
Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: RIP Paul Volcker
Replies: 7
Views: 2760

Re: RIP Paul Volcker

Imagine how long George Burns could have lived if he wasn't a smoker!
by Pet Hog
Wed Dec 11, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Help me get over my fear of LTTs
Replies: 24
Views: 12552

Re: Help me get over my fear of LTTs

Hi mdwilson1991 In my opinion, an important part of investing in the PP or GB is considering the performance of the total portfolio, as a whole, and not that of its individual components -- one or more of which will inevitably be sucking at any one time. Perhaps it will be LTTs that will suck in the...
by Pet Hog
Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:26 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: TLT Historical?
Replies: 3
Views: 2419

Re: TLT Historical?

Yahoo has TLT data back to 2002. Both "closing prices" and "dividend-adjusted closing prices," as well as all dividends and their payment dates. That Nasdaq link has only one set of prices -- and it's not obvious if they are dividend-adjusted or not.
by Pet Hog
Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:06 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Too bad George Orwell isn't around to see this
Replies: 18
Views: 6382

Re: Too bad George Orwell isn't around to see this

I think Vinny was just having fun with Newspeak. No. It's a phrase it seems I've recently frequently heard. Vinny Perhaps Vinny meant to write, "Not all crimes are impeachable offenses and not all impeachable offenses are crimes"? "All crimes are not impeachable" sounds like a politician could lite...
by Pet Hog
Sat Nov 30, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
Replies: 243
Views: 168996

Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Pet Hog, I disagree with your assumption that “someone in the accumulation phase has greater risk-tolerance” and therefore can be (ought to be?) more aggressive with their investments. Consider a couple of real-world examples: Example #1. 52 year old female (divorced, with 3 kids) came down with br...
by Pet Hog
Sat Nov 30, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
Replies: 243
Views: 168996

Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

I was responding to I have no problem with cash being defined as up to five-year treasuries/CDs And the rest of that sentence is, "but I'm in the accumulation phase." I think someone in the accumulation phase has greater risk-tolerance toward any changes in interest rates and/or emergencies and, th...
by Pet Hog
Fri Nov 29, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
Replies: 243
Views: 168996

Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

MangoMan wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:52 pm
Pet Hog wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:45 pm

##Or maybe going to a loan shark would be smarter than selling my five-year treasuries! Again, many options for the PP investor.
Ah yes, PP investors' personality profiles certainly would be the type to use loan sharks. ::) :o
I'll admit, there I was being facetious!
by Pet Hog
Fri Nov 29, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: How do you invest the Cash portion?
Replies: 243
Views: 168996

Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

... imagine you suddenly need to use cash at the same time that five-year treasuries sharply decrease in value. How mature is that ladder? How many of those treasuries can you really sell in a pinch without much of a loss? Can you give an example of such a situation? Because as a PP investor in the...