Search found 755 matches

by jhogue
Sat Dec 08, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55174

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

I'm wondering whether to buy my 2019 I-Bonds before May 1, if inflation expectations are receding. ochotona, Wait until mid-April 2019, when the latest figures on of the CPI-U are announced. That will give the new variable rate component for I bonds purchases for the next six months starting 5/1/19...
by jhogue
Sun Dec 02, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Stupid to Look at Portfolio Too Often
Replies: 24
Views: 11439

Re: Stupid to Look at Portfolio Too Often

I check my portfolio almost every day. I find it mildly entertaining rather than stressful. As for positive benefits of looking daily, seeing how the components bounce around in random, un-correlated fashion has convinced me that the HBPP dampens overall volatility and gives me a much smoother ride ...
by jhogue
Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55174

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

barrett, 1. I think my situation is similar to yours: retired; holding off to 70 to claim social security; concerned about rising (and mandatory) RMDs after 70. After working through the options on a year-by-year spreadsheet, I am convinced converting my traditional IRA to a Roth IRA before I reach ...
by jhogue
Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:21 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55174

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

"Deep cash" is a bit of an odd concept... I started out with the idea of I bonds as deep cash, but I think it makes more sense to think of them as tier 2 of an emergency fund. Tier 1 being whatever amount of liquid cash in your savings account or a money market account that makes sense to you. They...
by jhogue
Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55174

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

"Deep Cash" is that amount of cash above and beyond what is likely to be needed under the worst likely personal crisis situations. Where only 5% of scenarios would require more cash, for example. It's a guess, it's imprecise. Because of my job in the crappy oil industry, I have an emergency fund eq...
by jhogue
Sat Nov 03, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55174

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

1. Liquidity preference is, by definition, subjective and personal. There is no second guessing your personal choice for your portfolio, Pug. If ya gotta have it, ya gotta have it. 2. That said, consider this: At some point (hopefully), the HBPP investor’s portfolio grows so large that likely rebala...
by jhogue
Fri Nov 02, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55174

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

Pugchief, Do you have a better alternative for deep cash than I bonds? I can readily imagine that Warren Buffett doesn't bother investing any of his petty cash in I bonds (or bank CDs for that matter). For those of us in more down-to-earth tax brackets, however, I bonds have all the attractions of T...
by jhogue
Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18
Replies: 48
Views: 55174

New I Bond Rate 11/1/18 to 4/30/18

Treasury Direct announced the new I Bond rate this morning. The new fixed rate, which will apply from 1 November 2018 to 30 April 2019, is 0.50%. Added to the previously announced variable rate of 2.33%, the new composite rate will be 2.83%, tax deferred for 30 years and free from state and local ta...
by jhogue
Fri Oct 26, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy
Replies: 16
Views: 7990

Re: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy

Dualstow, I find it ironic that an Italian newspaper complains about high profile foreigners hiding their ill-gotten gains in Swiss banks. It is common knowledge in Italy that (literally) millions of Italians hide money in Swiss banks because they historically have not trusted their own country’s go...
by jhogue
Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?
Replies: 23
Views: 11175

Re: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?

Kbg,

1. You make an excellent point about accounting for tax implications.

2. I absolutely agree that you want to have a long term strategy for Cash, which is precisely why I am such a fan of I bonds.
by jhogue
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?
Replies: 23
Views: 11175

Re: Cash has exceeded my rebalance band, but....?

1. I decided last year to switch last year from annual rebalancing to 15/35 bands. Not market timing, but hoping to favorably catch future market swings. 2. Remember that, in the short run, you can never have too much Cash. In fact, more than any of the four HBPP assets, Cash makes me feel rich. 3, ...
by jhogue
Tue Oct 23, 2018 5:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy
Replies: 16
Views: 7990

Re: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy

dualstow, I am afraid that you have mischaracterized Swiss attitudes toward both privacy and crime. Paul Erdman, an American novelist who had once been the CEO of a Swiss private bank, said that the difference between the Swiss and the Americans is that the Swiss are willing to put their white colla...
by jhogue
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Cash is King!
Replies: 12
Views: 14131

Re: Cash is King!

If possible, why not split your purchase? Also, given the recent rise in interest rates and inflation, I think the better deals are to found right now in shorter maturities than your 5 year bank CD. Consider: 1. One year US Treasury bill @ 2.70%. 2. Series I savings bond, currently @ 2.62%. (Wait to...
by jhogue
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy
Replies: 16
Views: 7990

Re: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy

"beast knowledge"?
by jhogue
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy
Replies: 16
Views: 7990

Re: The official end of Swiss bank secrecy

1. Actually, Harry Browne predicted that the Swiss would one day be forced to abandon bank secrecy, in his book on Swiss banks originally published in the 1980s. 2. If you read the article carefully, you will note that this new sharing of bank information with other countries applies only to foreign...
by jhogue
Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3689
Views: 1659514

Re: The GOLD scream room

Sage advice from Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist, No. 12: “The prosperity of commerce is now perceived and acknowledged, by all enlightened statesmen, to be the most useful as well as the most productive source of national wealth; and has accordingly become a primary object of their political car...
by jhogue
Wed Sep 19, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?
Replies: 8
Views: 6865

Re: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?

I don't have the figures in front of me, but I am pretty certain that US savings bonds do not now account for anywhere near the percentage of Treasury debt that they did in World War II and the following couple of decades. I agree that the 1 year T bill (currently at 2.59%) looks like the best value...
by jhogue
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?
Replies: 8
Views: 6865

Re: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?

I have been studying the yield curve for about a year now, hoping to use it as a leading indicator on inflation/deflation and, hence, prospective I-bond and EE-bond rates. Over the last year, the 1 year T bill rate has risen 137 basis points. In the same time period, the I bond rate has risen just 5...
by jhogue
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Perth Mint depository online data breach
Replies: 43
Views: 31407

Re: Perth Mint depository online data breach

Pugchief,

Did you consciously decide at some point not to hold physical gold? Or, is it perhaps the consequence of the tax structure of your investment portfolio?
by jhogue
Tue Sep 18, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?
Replies: 8
Views: 6865

Re: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?

Sorry I could not offer you more help.

I will be watching the yield curve and interest rates carefully before the 11/1/18 reset. I think it quite possible that the Treasury will revise the fixed and/or variable I bond rate. Possibly the EE bond rate too, but that seems less likely at the moment.
by jhogue
Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Cash
Topic: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?
Replies: 8
Views: 6865

Re: Obtain List of My Savings Bonds (EE/I) Outstanding?

The US Treasury will not provide you with a list of bonds that you bought. Everyone who invests in US savings bonds should make their own list of bonds and keep an updated copy of that list in a secure place, like a bank safe deposit box. If your paper EE bonds were lost, stolen, or destroyed, you c...
by jhogue
Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 380345

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

I believe that it was also James Carville who said: "You never know what you'll come up with if you drag a $100 bill through a trailer park." (referring to Paula Jones' successful lawsuit for sexual harassment against Bill Clinton). There were also some other quotes attributed to him of an even eart...
by jhogue
Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Cash
Topic: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18
Replies: 45
Views: 40668

Re: New I Bond Rate 11/1/17 - 4/30/18

Tipswatch is a great website for tracking the inflation rate of the CPI-U and possible moves in I bond interest rates. That said, I am not sure why the author also promotes the purchase of TIPS. I find TIPS unsuitable for the HBPP, both because they can produce a negative yield in a deflationary eco...
by jhogue
Fri Aug 24, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 380345

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

When was the last time a sitting President who wished to run for a second term lost a primary?: 1.Taft lost a number of primaries to Teddy Roosevelt (and Robert LaFolette) in the campaign for the Republican nomination of 1912. The campaign was so bitter that TR walked out of the convention and ran a...
by jhogue
Thu Aug 23, 2018 11:18 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Trump as tragicomedy
Replies: 958
Views: 380345

Re: Trump as tragicomedy

The Swiss had a national referendum and voted down joining the EU.

They know enough history to have good reason to distrust their neighbors.