I picked SGOL as an ETF for my tax deferred account largely because it offered geopolitical diversification. (They hold their gold in vaults in Switzerland). It has been a nice bonus to see that they have cut their ER to compete with other gold ETFs. For buy-and-hold-investors, I think it will make...

It certainly matters if you're holding for a long period of time. The difference between IAU and AAAU is $7 per year, per $10,000 invested. It's more for GLD, SGOL etc. It's so easy to switch (at least in a tax-advantaged account) that it's kind of a no brainer to take advantage of this. Sorry, whe...

So why wouldnt I go with https://www.etf.com/AAAU .18% and government backed If you're buying for the long term than it really doesn't matter what you choose. Just pick whatever is safe and has the lowest rate possible. The higher ER rate ETF's are meant for short term traders. Spread is a much, mu...

Meaning as you go down the list, demand is higher? Why on earth, for example, would Spain's bonds be more attractive than US bonds? Demand is only 1/2 of the equation. The EU is in a strange situation where it is easy on the monetary side and pursing austerity on the fiscal side. That’s the crux of...

Hedging your bets helps a lot too. Going 100% all in on any one strategy can be stressful. But if you place one strategy alongside another that is either uncorrelated or at least has a low correlation, then it does help smooth things out quite a bit. This is why hedge fund investors are not recommen...

Kbg wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:34 am If we actually got to such a situation then I think "real risk" vs. real returns would be the most logical driver as to what to do.

The only question I have is how does one quantify "real risk"?

I think it's important to put trend following in context (at least the long stock only model of it). You get most of and perhaps slightly more of the upside, will almost always under perform on a ST basis and in return you clip some left tail risk. That's it. The risk profile is often described as ...

Talking about bond rates, I've posted similar before, and still don't understand why the US 10 year is basically on par with a country like Italy?!? And not too much lower than Greece? https://i.imgur.com/bTofF3K.png It's purely supply and demand. Meaning as you go down the list, demand is higher? ...

Yeah I think this kind of ties into our conversation over in the VP discussion. I think GEM (or any other quant strategy really) is fine as a VP, but I probably would not invest 100% of my equities in it. A quant strategy by nature will be a stock allocation that has a low correlation to the stock m...

But, the fact that anyone is even talking about it makes me very happy to own some gold! If seeking alpha is right, the value of gold would shoot up. After which...not sure it would make any sense to own it, except to guard against going back off the gold standard. If we ever went back on a gold st...

A gold standard is not just gold as money, its gold combined with legal tender laws that force you to use gold as the only money. So the more gold you bury in your yard, the more its worth as the supply shrinks and other money is illegal. And how to collect taxes when its easily hidden? A gold stan...

Cortopassi wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 8:42 am Talking about bond rates, I've posted similar before, and still don't understand why the US 10 year is basically on par with a country like Italy?!? And not too much lower than Greece?

It's purely supply and demand.

STTs (or some other ST instrument) are always better than cash unless the nominal rate is actually negative. But again, what to do is not difficult at all. Go with the highest interest rate for a given length and risk level. I think it does get a bit trickier than that if you look at the countries ...

Is inflation low? Trillion dollar deficits for 10 years, thats 10 trillion of inflationary pressure. And they say banks create 90% of new money? How much are they lending compared with how much gets payed back (destroyed) Food is cheap, but also subsidized. What if the subsidies ended. Whats the po...

Pmward, My comments are totally subjective based off my experience. I thought I had excellent knowledge of a few specific markets in the past where I made large bets. But without being on the inside, at least with individual issues, it was worse than flipping a coin, for me. I agree on your other p...

A pair of articles written this week by Kevin Muir on MMT, analyzing it and trying to separate the wheat from the chaff, and looking at how we as investors should look at and prepare for MMT. It is very unbiased and is not political in any way (though he does mention that under Trump we actually are...

Let me ask a basic question that hurt my returns for 20+ years. Why have a VP at all? I don't. Why do you think you can do better than a fund or ETF? Do you have insider information? Do you think you can time the market? Read charts? See that head and shoulder or cup and handle, or moving average c...

Yeah, that's a good way to look at objective numbers and let that guide you. For me, I've still got a ways to go in my accumulations, but I am currently saving a bit over 50% of my income, which made me very nervous when I was in an aggressive asset allocation. For behavioral reasons 40% stocks is a...

No, it’s a really, really bad idea. Seriously folks break away from the media and go do your own independent reading on why EVERY COUNTRY on the face of the planet left the gold standard. There is a very specific thing that happens with fixed monetary systems when severe economic contractions occur...

Also keep in mind, in regards to the PP, the idea is to rebalance over time. So if bonds are down in value and yields are going up, you will be purchasing more of them. That rebalance effect does tend to naturally claim more and more yield over time. So I think the PP will still work as intended. Ju...

Another article that I came across today looking at the issue of bond returns going forward: https://movement.capital/analyzing-bond ... ded4b883a5

nothing is ever going to be 100% guaranteed . but there are things that make sense .. the comparison to japan is a poor one . not only are we not japan but had someone in japan bought a global fund or invested in other countries their outcome would be very different .. The comparison to Japan is no...

Steve Forbes made a recent PBS documentary called "In Money We Trust" that made a similar argument. It's definitely worth watching, and can be viewed for free online.

there is always a cost to everything but higher returns does not always mean higher risk ... i used the fidelity insight growth model for more than 30 years . it is a 100% equities model but it strives to beat the s&p 500 but with a smaller beta .. it has done that very well.. after 30 years th...

We are twins separated at birth. I had the same philosophy when I was hyper-accumulating (TRIPLE TWINS). I think MMM and Jacob Lund Fisker both wrote about how having a high savings rate is much more important than investment returns. the best is do both... a high savings rate is you working for yo...