Search found 1731 matches

by pmward
Sat Apr 20, 2019 3:32 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

Well, that in a nutshell is why the West is going down the tubes. Everything is polarized left and right, no one is willing to compromise or entertain alternative points of view, and the people in the middle (who are probably closest to reality) are grossly outnumbered and ignored. Haha, truth righ...
by pmward
Sat Apr 20, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

Both of these go hand in hand. You are not going to convince people to have more kids; it's a different country than in 1900. But if you are going to have immigration, which I am fine with, it has to be legal and selective, i.e., productive intelligent people who will be contributors to the economy...
by pmward
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

This situation strikes me as being like that of a poor soul diagnosed with prostate cancer. Do you remain vigilant and simply monitor, or do you treat? There are arguments for doing both. That is indeed a very good analogy. Of course, one side of the body cannot wage war on the other side of the bo...
by pmward
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

The future is Japan. Fed's gonna buy stocks in the next asset price downturn, like Japan's doing now. MMT is just semantics, we already print money, MMT is a moral crusade from a few economists who get triggered when politicians say "but there isnt enough cash for that social program" UBI...
by pmward
Fri Apr 19, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

Now that we've kind of looked that the fundamental aspect of the dollar being a debt instrument, we can look at the technical aspect of money creation. In our current system as you alluded money is created through issuing bonds. The only way to keep the money supply the same is to keep the debt lev...
by pmward
Fri Apr 19, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: BOJ Largest Shareholder of stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 3333

Re: BOJ Largest Shareholder of stocks

I'm not sure what it will take to finally get through to these central banks that buying financial assets does not increase inflation... all attempts to increase inflation this way have failed yet they still keep trying.
by pmward
Fri Apr 19, 2019 10:09 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: bud split
Replies: 40
Views: 14959

Re: The GOLD scream room

Yeah, I think that having opposing opinions in the think tank is an incredibly valuable thing. If this were censoring him based solely on his opinion I would be against it, but it's not. There's a difference between making an opposing argument and spewing public toxicity into the community on a regu...
by pmward
Fri Apr 19, 2019 8:21 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

Optics. If the gov said "we'll just print money" what do you think would happen to faith in the dollar? This is why MMT is getting pushback from economists. It's a bit more than just optics, although it certainly is easier to comprehend using the mental model of optics. To get to the hear...
by pmward
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

As far as my second question then, how did this country grow for over 100 years with a "national debt" that pretty much stayed constant as a percentage of gdp at around 30%. Whereas the last 60 years has seen it spike to three times that level? I already answered that question above... th...
by pmward
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

Or just leave the "money" sitting in a non interest bearing account for me at the treasury. I mean the only difference between and bond and currency is that it is printed on different paper and one bears interest and the other doesn't. At that point "debt" becomes "deposit&...
by pmward
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

. so government debt really is an absolute necessary in a fiat world, and the U.S. especially is dependent on debt, without debt the whole system would implode. Is it "debt" that is necessary...or money supply? Why are we calling this "debt"? It carries so many negative connotat...
by pmward
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

Ill look into that dalio piece. I guess what I dont understand is that if I purchase a ten year bond and it matures. The treasury doesnt have to pay me anything other than the principal. They dont have to issue another bond. So I would then in essense be holding the value of that bond in currency. ...
by pmward
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:13 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Permanently low interest rates
Replies: 46
Views: 15631

Re: Permanently low interest rates

The government can always print the money to pay their debts, so long as those debts are denominated in their national currency, which all of the U.S. debt is. Is there a level where debt suddenly matters? I'm sure there is, but Japan makes us look restrained in comparison and they're still chugging...
by pmward
Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: bud split
Replies: 40
Views: 14959

Re: The GOLD scream room

Yeah and that's not the first time, that's the second or third time I've heard him ask to be banned. The constant anger and negativity being thrown publicly at this entire board was getting old, especially since there was no logical backing to it at all. Hopefully now he can finally get the closure ...
by pmward
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1788439

Re: The GOLD scream room

I would read your posts if you didn’t write a book every time. Keep it short man. Blah, blah, blah...the PP doesn’t work as advertised. Sounds good on the surface and perhaps backtests well but that’s it! I don’t want to rehash every discussion over the last decade. You’re not the first person here...
by pmward
Wed Apr 17, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1788439

Re: The GOLD scream room

I just wish that if Budd were going to try to refute the PP that he would do it objectively. It bothers me that all he does is come here every day gold is down and say "gold sucks, PP sucks, stocks are good". There's no objective argument there, it's purely subjective, and for a forum that...
by pmward
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:59 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1788439

Re: The GOLD scream room

And even though gold has been out of favor the last 8 years, it's still returned a much higher CAGR than both stocks and bonds over the last 20 years https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&startYear=1999&endYear=2019&initialAmount=10000&ann...
by pmward
Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1788439

Re: The GOLD scream room

I'm not really sure what the point is in coming here to post and trash the PP every single day that gold is down. It's funny how quiet it is around here on the days gold is up in comparison. I also don't understand why you don't just sell if you really hate the assets that much. Just be done with it...
by pmward
Tue Apr 16, 2019 9:37 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: 30 Year TIPS Bonds
Replies: 6
Views: 6960

Re: 30 Year TIPS Bonds

Resurrecting an ancient thread because of MMT. When we have another recession, inflation expectations might nosedive, as they did in 2009, and as they did after the late 2015 "almost" recession , the one that all of the stimulus cancelled. But if MMT gets applied, "QE for the people&...
by pmward
Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1788439

Re: The GOLD scream room

Cortopassi wrote: Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:18 pm Well that was short lived above $1300.
Support is technically 1280-1285. It's bounced off that range 3x since January. I wouldn't even start to worry until if/when we break below that level.
by pmward
Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1788439

Re: The GOLD scream room

Same as it ever was...puke Here’s my new saying - stocks giveth and the PP taketh We just need Budd to finally capitulate and sell all his gold for stocks... because I'm calling it right now, that when that inevitable day finally comes stocks will immediately start their next cyclical bear market a...
by pmward
Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1788439

Re: The GOLD scream room

I'm still interested in buying more gold on dips. This MMT discussion, Medicare for All, trillion dollar deficits hint that I might like more than my current 11.4% gold. Don't forget that the Fed is also on record in their minutes of considering negative interest rates in the next downturn, and if ...
by pmward
Thu Apr 04, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3693
Views: 1788439

Re: The GOLD scream room

Did we ever have a poll about whether you think gold is losing investors to cryptocurrency? There is a thread with almost those exact words (change to "..to Bitcoin). {Edit: or maybe I'm thinking of the opposite?} There are various opinions about whether crypto *deserves* gold's customers. Sti...
by pmward
Mon Apr 01, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Currency in the U.S. Civil War
Replies: 0
Views: 9518

Currency in the U.S. Civil War

Interesting podcast released today about currency in the U.S. Civil War. Looks at both sides monetary policy and how it influenced and was effected by the war. It also shows some examples of how the value of money is dictated not just by the quantity of money, but by people's trust in the underlying...
by pmward
Mon Apr 01, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Stock scream room
Replies: 1438
Views: 670671

Re: Stock scream room

Until it isn't... and when the tides do inevitably turn (they always do at some point), those who did not capitulate will be rewarded. Every asset class has decade+ time frames that they don't go up. It took stocks 25 years to put in a new high after 1929. As recent as the 2000's we had a "lost...