MediumTex wrote: It's weird to hear people talk about stocks being overvalued when the major indices are just now breaking through levels first reached 15 years ago.

they are more fully valued than over valued in my opinion.  the s&p 500 is up 1.88% real return as a 15 year average.

low rates will effect things . historically dividends represented 1/3 of the s&p's gains .  dividends and rates are joined at the hip.  with bonds in the 2% range that puts equities in the 6% total return  area , those are  below average returns, also if stocks fell 15% the historical average fo...

a side from having a spread in bid and ask there are futures contracts involved with these etf's. they are partially priced based not on todays price but the outlook in the future.

keep in mind there is no historical point i am aware of where such low rates and high valuations co-existed.  that can be a nasty combo to deal with going forward.

you have to keep in mind the permanent portfolio never fell as much as conventional portfolio's in 2008-2009  so they didn't need the gains to get even again.

keep in mind the real return on the s&p 500 the last 15 years is about 1.88%

think of cash as owning call options on assets at lower prices.