Search found 2464 matches

by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:59 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 8696

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a lo...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:46 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?
Replies: 34
Views: 8696

Re: If The Stock Market Crashes Which Asset Will Save Us?

Why would you bother investing in a portfolio that fails during the most in-opportune time? Case in point, YTD stocks down 13%, LTT’s down 16%, Gold up 5% and Cash down whatever inflation is at the moment. Case 2, today, stocks down 3.5%, LTT’s down 1.35% and Gold down/flat as well. Seems like a los...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 22, 2022 1:57 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140786

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

Just as I thought, PP is completely and utterly useless.
Where’s MT...I’m sure he thinks it’s doing just fine.
Blah, blah, blah...spring, coil, rebound, bullsh*t.
by buddtholomew
Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:08 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140786

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The PP has been neutralized. Talk of rising interest rates has turned the bond market upside down. Gold will face headwinds with yields rising as it does not pay a dividend. Stocks will continue to fall until rates stabilize and inflation subsides. Cash is the only true diversifier and I don’t but ...
by buddtholomew
Thu Apr 21, 2022 3:45 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140786

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

The PP has been neutralized. Talk of rising interest rates has turned the bond market upside down. Gold will face headwinds with yields rising as it does not pay a dividend. Stocks will continue to fall until rates stabilize and inflation subsides. Cash is the only true diversifier and I don’t but t...
by buddtholomew
Tue Apr 19, 2022 2:55 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

We are a whisker away from a 3% yield on LTT’s.
What happens if we go to 4, 5 or 6%?
Does your plan account for this possibility?

Personally, I believe LTT’s will have their day in the sun once more. I just need to see some strength when stocks decline before allocating any capital.
by buddtholomew
Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:56 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?
Replies: 341
Views: 140786

Re: Are most people here sticking with Treasuries?

It appears that there were more investors than panicked old Budd who questioned the validity of the PP moving forward. Where were you when I was being attacked for my perspective? Were you too afraid to voice the same opinion as mine? Now people are either selling some or all of their LTT’s down 15%...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 08, 2022 4:15 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

If you've looked at my options posting, I have converted about 33% of my net worth to cash and am selling puts. The rest I still have in a PP configuration, but yeah, i finally got a little tired of esp. holding GLD without seeing any income. I’ll have to take a look at your option trading posts. 3...
by buddtholomew
Fri Apr 08, 2022 2:27 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

I’m sure glad i sold TLT.
Perhaps I am the poster child for behavioral pitfalls, but I will not fight the last battle when the cards are stacked against me.

Corto, if ALL assets are going to do poorly for a while, then why hold ALL of them?
by buddtholomew
Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:54 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover th...
by buddtholomew
Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:13 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

I used to advocate the PP as the holy grail to investing and even shared the book with family and friends. I was drawn to the philosophy as it aligned quite well with my mental composition. I long for the days when I felt secure holding 4x25 come hell or high water (rebalanced a few times). LTT’s sa...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 3:01 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

It’s ok, PP won’t help you.
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:02 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover th...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:35 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

Prove me wrong. We can play this game all day. The PP is directionless and the hope is that one or more assets increase more than the other assets decline to produce a positive return. Sometimes one or more assets are down and the remaining asset that is positive doesn’t increase enough to cover the...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 21017

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Apologies, it’s 2021-2022 YTD. 2020 - YTD returns are pretty close, about 2% difference. Fair enough. Inflation adjusted, the PP is down about 6% since Jan 2021. Pretty bad for this portfolio, but still far, far, far from a disaster. Coupled with the huge runup that we saw in 2019-2020, it's still ...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:27 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 9:24 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 21017

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

01/2021 - 2022 YTD PP: 2.25% BH 60/40: 8% Where are you getting your numbers? According to portfoliovisualizer, i'm seeing that $10k invested in the PP Jan 2020 would be worth almost $11k today, inflation adjusted. Apologies, it’s 2021-2022 YTD. 2020 - YTD returns are pretty close, about 2% differe...
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 8:29 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 21017

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

01/2020 - 2022 YTD

PP: 2.25%
BH 60/40: 8%
by buddtholomew
Thu Mar 31, 2022 7:40 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...
by buddtholomew
Wed Mar 30, 2022 11:29 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Fed damaging bond market
Replies: 53
Views: 10941

Re: Fed damaging bond market

The new normal for bonds is that they become more and more about simply guessing at central bank moves, and less about real-world fundamentals because investors will turn elsewhere to express such views -- precious metals, various equity sectors, commodity baskets and so on. I don't know that we ne...
by buddtholomew
Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:33 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!
Replies: 62
Views: 21017

Re: PP is Totally Obsolete!!!

Honestly, I think that I am a walking billboard for the real benefit of the PP, which is it allows you to live your life without thinking about or worrying about your investments. I have grown so indifferent to the markets that I will go months without looking at anything related to any of the PP a...
by buddtholomew
Mon Mar 28, 2022 3:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 5417

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

>:D The PP is truly fantastic in how poorly it performs. If you try and protect yourself from everything, you protect yourself from nothing. backwards take. PP is offensive on all fronts, not defensive Nah, not worth the headache.. Go ahead ppnewbie, you’ll be where I am 10 years from now...nothing ...
by buddtholomew
Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:34 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 5417

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

The PP is truly fantastic in how poorly it performs.
If you try and protect yourself from everything, you protect yourself from nothing.
by buddtholomew
Fri Mar 25, 2022 1:17 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 5417

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

I ascribe to buy, hold and rebalance as long as the risk/reward relationship exists for these assets. I no longer see LTT’s as worth holding and understand that I may not benefit from a flight to safety (although LTT’s have gone down steadily with the war, inflation and other headwinds). I initially...
by buddtholomew
Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:10 am
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Gundlach on LTT's today
Replies: 21
Views: 5417

Re: Gundlach on LTT's today

Ouch!
Stocks, gold and cash are the order of the day.
It no longer makes sense to me to hold bonds.