Search found 1982 matches

by barrett
Sat Dec 06, 2014 11:26 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
Replies: 57
Views: 31025

Re: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)

If three assets go down at once with only cash being the winner in a Mother-Of-All-Dual-Bubble-Pop-Deflations, there's no way the PP can offset it.  I think Ray Dalio understood this problem which is why they shift from a All Weather portfolio to a special Deflationary Proof portfolio, but it still...
by barrett
Sat Dec 06, 2014 7:44 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)
Replies: 57
Views: 31025

Re: 2014 Predictions (just for fun)

I didn't miss it.  Just concerned about the future.  The PP isn't historically battle-tested under the conditions I'm worried about.  What is more deflationary than stocks and bonds declining at the same time? MG, Why do you say that bonds tanking is 'deflationary'? Was that a typo or do you just m...
by barrett
Wed Dec 03, 2014 8:35 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Factor Tilting with FREE Schwab ETFs
Replies: 4
Views: 895

Re: Factor Tilting with FREE Schwab ETFs

Pointedstick wrote: While buying is free, there's a $75 fee per bond sold.
Wait, is that really true? Did you mean $7.50? Even that is really bad!
by barrett
Wed Dec 03, 2014 12:35 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Our Private Idaho
Replies: 11
Views: 4152

Re: Our Private Idaho

The end result is a huge amount of mistrust between the two groups, to the point where spending time with people who are not a member of your "team" can lead to serious social consequences. Early C, Can you give an example of this? What were the consequences for you or others who have associated wi...
by barrett
Mon Dec 01, 2014 1:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?
Replies: 47
Views: 21406

Re: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?

Pointedstick wrote: ...I must echo Ad Orietem's oft-repeated approval of owning a chunk of VT and never letting it go. Use the PP to protect your personal stash and use VT to bet on humanity.
Ventricular Tachycardia? Seriously, what is VT?
by barrett
Mon Dec 01, 2014 12:09 pm
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3688
Views: 1655286

Re: The GOLD scream room

What the...?
by barrett
Sat Nov 29, 2014 6:14 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: Japanese Sovereign Debt Yield Turns Negative
Replies: 11
Views: 4274

Re: Japanese Sovereign Debt Yield Turns Negative

The Nikkei is up over 7% this year and gold is up 10% or so YTD when converted to Yen. If you figure nothing on cash or bonds, then a Japanese PP is still handily beating inflation/deflation in Japan this year. What it means going forward, I have no idea. In such a long-term deflationary environment...
by barrett
Fri Nov 28, 2014 12:14 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Oil
Replies: 3
Views: 1190

Re: Oil

OPEC also has an interest in keeping the world addicted to oil. Having the price low for a while here and there has the benefit (for oil exporters) of making oil-importing countries complacent about developing alternative energy sources. When gas prices are low, it's easy as a consumer to get lazy a...
by barrett
Thu Nov 27, 2014 7:51 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385035

Re: Figuring Out Religion

barrett wrote: I wander into this conversation with trepidation.
That's it. I am outta here. This discussion never ends well for me. But, yes, Happy Thanksgiving to all.
by barrett
Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:34 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385035

Re: Figuring Out Religion

For those who have heard the "word" and rejected it, I think they are going to hell. Can you understand how hellish this proposition sounds to everyone except the few who do follow the (forced) path? It's not even a proposition but a threat that sounds like it comes from Kim Jong-un. What sort of d...
by barrett
Wed Nov 26, 2014 2:22 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: EE bonds as portion of bonds (not cash)
Replies: 16
Views: 8278

Re: EE bonds as portion of bonds (not cash)

I think what I don't like about this EE idea is that it doesn't give you a favorable option to do an about face with that money. In 5, 10 or 15 years you may feel that you don't want to wait the full 20 years to get that magical doubling (remember that the interest rate can be really bad right up to...
by barrett
Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:56 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385035

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Mountaineer, Don't know if I speak for the majority of non-believers, but I personally also do not believe in Satan. The existence of Satan or God seems equally unlikely to me. if you give up on, or don't believe in, the anthropomorphized big sky daddy version of god, then the round and round argume...
by barrett
Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:39 pm
Forum: Bonds
Topic: EE bonds as portion of bonds (not cash)
Replies: 16
Views: 8278

Re: EE bonds as portion of bonds (not cash)

Interesting, whatchamacallit. I assume that you are young (and accumulating for a while) and that you have read the whole moda/Ryan Melvey thread that you have cited above? I think that moda advocated looking at the EEs as part cash/part LTTs.
by barrett
Wed Nov 26, 2014 1:32 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: PP now beating SP500 YTD
Replies: 61
Views: 29169

Re: PP now beating SP500 YTD

PS, I'm showing closer to 8%. I have LLTs up about 21%, S&P up about 11%, gold down 1% and cash up a bit (lots of old savings bonds for me).
by barrett
Wed Nov 26, 2014 11:41 am
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?
Replies: 47
Views: 21406

Re: is pp for all ages and portfolio sizes?

KevinW,

I wish you would post more on here. I realize that after a while it probably seems like there is not a lot to talk about with the PP. But you always have good insights and seem really comfortable with the portfolio. Just putting that out there.
by barrett
Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:25 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth
Replies: 50
Views: 25938

Re: Gold Market Manipulation is a Myth

The basic thrust really is that there are a lot of friction points involved in trading a portfolio from transaction costs, taxes, missed opportunities, and emotional. These friction points are very expensive compared to the investor that sits back and does very little. Also, traders tend to react v...
by barrett
Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:15 am
Forum: Gold
Topic: The GOLD scream room
Replies: 3688
Views: 1655286

Re: The GOLD scream room

It was interesting to gauge my reaction in the event that gold really did shoot up 20% overnight...  It made me realize how I glad I was to have a position in gold but also how I wish I had converted more of my gold ETFs to physical coins...  Sort of like waking up from a dream and realizing you ha...
by barrett
Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:56 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385035

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Or it could just be the result of effective brainwashing... Or just going through the motions so as not to upset friends and family. When I ask people about their religious faith the answers are not always indicative of a strong faith in God. My dad wanted me and my sister to go to church when we w...
by barrett
Mon Nov 24, 2014 1:04 pm
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385035

Re: Figuring Out Religion

True, modeling and endorsing are both fair words for my approach. I try not to dictate though. In a household as open as ours, our daughter is bound to find out what we believe about all kinds of things. Incidentally, she lived the first five years of her life with her Buddhist grandmother in China ...
by barrett
Mon Nov 24, 2014 11:36 am
Forum: Other Discussions
Topic: Figuring Out Religion
Replies: 4052
Views: 1385035

Re: Figuring Out Religion

Religion is such an important issue with one's children as well. I always tell our daughter that she has to choose her own path with religion and politics. My reasoning is that if kids are not free to do so, then whoever procreates the most wins (so to speak). Isn't that kind of like saying I'm goi...
by barrett
Sun Nov 23, 2014 7:20 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie implementing PP in India
Replies: 60
Views: 20212

Re: Newbie implementing PP in India

Tyler, that was a good post and now you have de-posted it! Anyway, a couple more things... First of all, that is great that you reached such an important goal. Another thing that I have been mulling over is that many folks would like to be financially independent but they never really lay out what t...
by barrett
Sun Nov 23, 2014 5:51 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie implementing PP in India
Replies: 60
Views: 20212

Re: Newbie implementing PP in India

That said, investing did not build my nest egg.  Working hard and saving did. You cannot achieve financial independence through investing.  It has to come from a business or a career, self-employed or employed. Maybe you can't completely achieve financial independence through investing, but it sure...
by barrett
Sun Nov 23, 2014 2:53 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Newbie implementing PP in India
Replies: 60
Views: 20212

Re: Newbie implementing PP in India

I will be trying to save around 50% of my income every month and invest it using PP. I intend to reach financial independence and use PP for it. Can one achieve it using PP? krod16, If you can really pull off a 50% savings rate, that is great. It will also get you used to living on way less than yo...
by barrett
Thu Nov 20, 2014 8:23 pm
Forum: Permanent Portfolio Discussion
Topic: Setting Up a Brand New Permanent Portfolio
Replies: 16
Views: 7253

Re: Setting Up a Brand New Permanent Portfolio

Dear Barret, thank you for your asnwer.  I'm indeed self-employed.  All my income comes to me via my LLC.  I have thought about setting up a Roth Individual 401K but in doing the math, it seemed to me that it would be more beneficial for me to benefit from tax write offs now that my wife and I are ...
by barrett
Thu Nov 20, 2014 11:17 am
Forum: Variable Portfolio Discussion
Topic: The money you can afford to lose
Replies: 5
Views: 2207

The money you can afford to lose

My number is zero! Just wondering how many others feel this way.